2026 MLB Betting Trends: Best Run Line, Moneyline, and Totals Picks by Team
2026 MLB Betting Trends: Best Run Line, Moneyline, and Totals Picks by Team
The 2026 MLB season has produced clear separation in the betting market, and the team-by-team numbers tell the story. The Tampa Bay Rays have been the most profitable club to back on the run line, while the Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets have been steady money-losers no matter the side. Below are the full 30-team rankings for every major market, sorted by return on investment, to sharpen your best bets and build smarter parlays.
Records reflect flat 1-unit stakes at the closing line through August 7, 2026. A positive ROI means blindly backing that side all season would have shown a profit.
Best Season-Long Trends at a Glance
Four angles stand out across the full board this season: Tampa Bay on the run line (64-49, plus 17.2 percent), Washington on the first-5 run line (73-44, plus 17.1 percent), the Mets on team-total Unders (plus 13.4 percent), and St. Louis on full-game Unders (45-65, plus 12.1 percent). Each is anchored by a large sample, which is what separates a genuine market edge from a hot streak.
Run Line Picks (Against the Spread)
The run line applies a 1.5-run spread to every game. Tampa Bay leads the league at 64-49, with Milwaukee and Atlanta close behind. On the other end, Philadelphia has been baseball's worst run-line team by a wide margin.
| Rank | Team | ATS Record | Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tampa Bay Rays | 64-49 | +23.50u | +17.2% |
| 2 | Milwaukee Brewers | 62-53 | +18.00u | +13.6% |
| 3 | Atlanta Braves | 60-54 | +13.10u | +10.0% |
| 4 | Washington Nationals | 67-48 | +9.55u | +6.0% |
| 5 | Boston Red Sox | 57-53 | +5.75u | +4.0% |
| 6 | Chicago White Sox | 65-46 | +5.65u | +3.5% |
| 7 | San Diego Padres | 61-53 | +2.30u | +1.5% |
| 8 | Baltimore Orioles | 59-55 | +1.90u | +1.3% |
| 9 | Arizona Diamondbacks | 61-51 | +0.55u | +0.3% |
| 10 | Chicago Cubs | 55-59 | -0.85u | -0.6% |
| 11 | New York Yankees | 54-60 | -1.95u | -1.5% |
| 12 | St. Louis Cardinals | 62-50 | -2.70u | -1.6% |
| 13 | Houston Astros | 59-57 | -2.85u | -1.8% |
| 14 | Minnesota Twins | 62-53 | -3.30u | -2.0% |
| 15 | Cincinnati Reds | 61-52 | -4.40u | -2.8% |
| 16 | Colorado Rockies | 60-55 | -5.35u | -3.8% |
| 17 | Pittsburgh Pirates | 56-58 | -6.60u | -4.5% |
| 18 | Detroit Tigers | 53-57 | -6.75u | -4.6% |
| 19 | Miami Marlins | 58-57 | -8.75u | -5.6% |
| 20 | Cleveland Guardians | 55-60 | -8.55u | -5.7% |
| 21 | New York Mets | 52-62 | -9.45u | -6.6% |
| 22 | Toronto Blue Jays | 55-60 | -11.00u | -7.3% |
| 23 | San Francisco Giants | 55-58 | -16.55u | -10.4% |
| 24 | Texas Rangers | 51-61 | -17.90u | -11.8% |
| 25 | Los Angeles Dodgers | 50-64 | -17.20u | -12.8% |
| 26 | Los Angeles Angels | 55-59 | -20.60u | -13.1% |
| 27 | Athletics | 54-61 | -20.60u | -13.2% |
| 28 | Kansas City Royals | 52-59 | -23.40u | -14.6% |
| 29 | Seattle Mariners | 44-72 | -19.85u | -15.8% |
| 30 | Philadelphia Phillies | 46-69 | -29.85u | -21.7% |
Moneyline Picks (Straight Up)
Moneyline ROI rewards teams the market has underrated, not just the ones that win most. The Tampa Bay Rays now top the board at 68-46, one of the rare cases of an elite team that still pays its backers, with the Chicago White Sox second and Atlanta third. The Mets have been the single biggest moneyline drain in the sport.
| Rank | Team | Record | Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tampa Bay Rays | 68-46 | +14.35u | +10.0% |
| 2 | Chicago White Sox | 59-55 | +11.35u | +9.3% |
| 3 | Atlanta Braves | 70-45 | +12.70u | +8.1% |
| 4 | Milwaukee Brewers | 72-43 | +11.75u | +7.0% |
| 5 | Arizona Diamondbacks | 61-55 | +7.45u | +5.5% |
| 6 | Washington Nationals | 56-61 | +5.10u | +4.1% |
| 7 | Chicago Cubs | 67-49 | +6.05u | +4.0% |
| 8 | St. Louis Cardinals | 57-58 | +3.65u | +3.0% |
| 9 | Boston Red Sox | 63-51 | +2.40u | +1.7% |
| 10 | Miami Marlins | 58-58 | +1.10u | +0.8% |
| 11 | San Diego Padres | 60-56 | +0.45u | +0.3% |
| 12 | Minnesota Twins | 57-59 | -0.85u | -0.7% |
| 13 | Cincinnati Reds | 56-58 | -1.55u | -1.2% |
| 14 | Houston Astros | 59-57 | -2.95u | -2.2% |
| 15 | Colorado Rockies | 45-70 | -3.40u | -2.9% |
| 16 | Philadelphia Phillies | 62-54 | -6.45u | -3.8% |
| 17 | Cleveland Guardians | 57-59 | -6.60u | -4.7% |
| 18 | Texas Rangers | 57-58 | -6.45u | -4.8% |
| 19 | New York Yankees | 64-51 | -8.50u | -5.0% |
| 20 | Baltimore Orioles | 56-59 | -8.30u | -6.1% |
| 21 | Pittsburgh Pirates | 57-60 | -12.10u | -8.4% |
| 22 | Los Angeles Dodgers | 69-46 | -18.55u | -8.4% |
| 23 | Detroit Tigers | 56-59 | -12.85u | -8.9% |
| 24 | Toronto Blue Jays | 54-62 | -18.30u | -12.6% |
| 25 | Seattle Mariners | 56-60 | -20.05u | -12.7% |
| 26 | San Francisco Giants | 48-67 | -17.45u | -13.6% |
| 27 | Kansas City Royals | 48-68 | -20.45u | -15.9% |
| 28 | Los Angeles Angels | 44-71 | -20.55u | -16.8% |
| 29 | Athletics | 45-70 | -26.40u | -20.4% |
| 30 | New York Mets | 50-66 | -31.15u | -21.5% |
Full-Game Totals Picks (Over / Under)
Totals splits cut both ways, so we rank the Over and the Under separately. The Chicago White Sox and Washington have been the league's premier Over teams, while St. Louis and Milwaukee anchor the Under side.
Best Over Plays
| Rank | Team | Over Record (O-U) | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chicago White Sox | 64-48 | +9.2% |
| 2 | Washington Nationals | 63-48 | +8.5% |
| 3 | Pittsburgh Pirates | 64-50 | +7.2% |
| 4 | Texas Rangers | 61-48 | +6.4% |
| 5 | Houston Astros | 62-48 | +6.4% |
| 6 | Minnesota Twins | 61-48 | +5.9% |
| 7 | Cincinnati Reds | 60-52 | +2.1% |
| 8 | Chicago Cubs | 61-54 | +1.7% |
| 9 | Seattle Mariners | 58-51 | +1.6% |
| 10 | Baltimore Orioles | 58-53 | -0.4% |
| 11 | San Francisco Giants | 53-52 | -3.5% |
| 12 | Miami Marlins | 57-56 | -3.8% |
| 13 | Toronto Blue Jays | 56-57 | -5.0% |
| 14 | Athletics | 55-56 | -5.1% |
| 15 | Atlanta Braves | 54-55 | -5.1% |
| 16 | Colorado Rockies | 54-58 | -8.2% |
| 17 | New York Mets | 51-56 | -8.9% |
| 18 | Cleveland Guardians | 55-61 | -9.2% |
| 19 | Los Angeles Dodgers | 54-60 | -9.8% |
| 20 | Detroit Tigers | 51-59 | -10.8% |
| 21 | San Diego Padres | 53-61 | -11.0% |
| 22 | Tampa Bay Rays | 50-59 | -11.6% |
| 23 | Kansas City Royals | 52-62 | -12.5% |
| 24 | Boston Red Sox | 50-60 | -13.3% |
| 25 | Philadelphia Phillies | 49-61 | -13.9% |
| 26 | Arizona Diamondbacks | 49-61 | -14.1% |
| 27 | Los Angeles Angels | 50-63 | -14.9% |
| 28 | New York Yankees | 49-62 | -15.5% |
| 29 | Milwaukee Brewers | 49-64 | -16.7% |
| 30 | St. Louis Cardinals | 45-65 | -21.2% |
Best Under Plays
| Rank | Team | Under Record (O-U) | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St. Louis Cardinals | 45-65 | +12.1% |
| 2 | Milwaukee Brewers | 49-64 | +8.2% |
| 3 | Los Angeles Angels | 50-63 | +6.9% |
| 4 | New York Yankees | 49-62 | +6.5% |
| 5 | Arizona Diamondbacks | 49-61 | +6.0% |
| 6 | Philadelphia Phillies | 49-61 | +6.0% |
| 7 | Kansas City Royals | 52-62 | +4.2% |
| 8 | Boston Red Sox | 50-60 | +4.0% |
| 9 | Tampa Bay Rays | 50-59 | +2.9% |
| 10 | Detroit Tigers | 51-59 | +2.7% |
| 11 | San Diego Padres | 53-61 | +2.4% |
| 12 | Los Angeles Dodgers | 54-60 | +0.6% |
| 13 | Cleveland Guardians | 55-61 | -0.2% |
| 14 | New York Mets | 51-56 | -0.3% |
| 15 | Colorado Rockies | 54-58 | -0.6% |
| 16 | Atlanta Braves | 54-55 | -2.8% |
| 17 | Athletics | 55-56 | -3.2% |
| 18 | Toronto Blue Jays | 56-57 | -3.3% |
| 19 | San Francisco Giants | 53-52 | -4.8% |
| 20 | Miami Marlins | 57-56 | -5.1% |
| 21 | Baltimore Orioles | 58-53 | -8.2% |
| 22 | Seattle Mariners | 58-51 | -9.8% |
| 23 | Chicago Cubs | 61-54 | -9.8% |
| 24 | Cincinnati Reds | 60-52 | -10.7% |
| 25 | Texas Rangers | 61-48 | -14.5% |
| 26 | Minnesota Twins | 61-48 | -15.1% |
| 27 | Pittsburgh Pirates | 64-50 | -15.6% |
| 28 | Houston Astros | 62-48 | -15.9% |
| 29 | Washington Nationals | 63-48 | -16.4% |
| 30 | Chicago White Sox | 64-48 | -18.1% |
Team Total Picks (Over / Under)
Team totals isolate one club's run production rather than the combined score. The Chicago Cubs and Atlanta have cleared their team numbers more than any other lineups, while the Mets and Angels have been the most dependable team-total Under sides.
Best Team-Total Over Plays
| Rank | Team | Over Record (O-U) | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chicago Cubs | 66-50 | +6.5% |
| 2 | Atlanta Braves | 65-50 | +6.3% |
| 3 | Minnesota Twins | 65-51 | +5.2% |
| 4 | Arizona Diamondbacks | 64-52 | +4.1% |
| 5 | Milwaukee Brewers | 63-52 | +4.0% |
| 6 | Washington Nationals | 63-54 | +1.4% |
| 7 | Pittsburgh Pirates | 63-54 | +1.0% |
| 8 | Chicago White Sox | 61-53 | +0.4% |
| 9 | Detroit Tigers | 60-55 | -1.3% |
| 10 | Colorado Rockies | 61-54 | -1.6% |
| 11 | Tampa Bay Rays | 60-54 | -1.7% |
| 12 | Baltimore Orioles | 59-56 | -3.5% |
| 13 | Houston Astros | 58-58 | -4.0% |
| 14 | Boston Red Sox | 58-56 | -4.4% |
| 15 | St. Louis Cardinals | 57-58 | -6.2% |
| 16 | Cleveland Guardians | 58-58 | -6.8% |
| 17 | San Diego Padres | 56-60 | -8.6% |
| 18 | Texas Rangers | 56-59 | -9.1% |
| 19 | Philadelphia Phillies | 54-62 | -12.0% |
| 20 | Miami Marlins | 53-63 | -12.8% |
| 21 | Cincinnati Reds | 51-63 | -16.9% |
| 22 | New York Yankees | 50-65 | -17.5% |
| 23 | San Francisco Giants | 50-65 | -19.0% |
| 24 | Seattle Mariners | 50-66 | -19.7% |
| 25 | Toronto Blue Jays | 49-67 | -20.7% |
| 26 | Kansas City Royals | 49-67 | -20.9% |
| 27 | Los Angeles Dodgers | 48-67 | -21.7% |
| 28 | Athletics | 48-67 | -22.3% |
| 29 | Los Angeles Angels | 47-68 | -23.0% |
| 30 | New York Mets | 47-69 | -26.2% |
Best Team-Total Under Plays
| Rank | Team | Under Record (O-U) | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New York Mets | 47-69 | +13.4% |
| 2 | Los Angeles Angels | 47-68 | +11.1% |
| 3 | Toronto Blue Jays | 49-67 | +9.6% |
| 4 | Los Angeles Dodgers | 48-67 | +9.4% |
| 5 | Kansas City Royals | 49-67 | +8.7% |
| 6 | Seattle Mariners | 50-66 | +8.3% |
| 7 | Athletics | 48-67 | +8.2% |
| 8 | San Francisco Giants | 50-65 | +8.0% |
| 9 | New York Yankees | 50-65 | +5.3% |
| 10 | Cincinnati Reds | 51-63 | +5.0% |
| 11 | Miami Marlins | 53-63 | +3.5% |
| 12 | Philadelphia Phillies | 54-62 | +0.5% |
| 13 | Texas Rangers | 56-59 | -2.7% |
| 14 | San Diego Padres | 56-60 | -3.5% |
| 15 | St. Louis Cardinals | 57-58 | -5.4% |
| 16 | Cleveland Guardians | 58-58 | -5.8% |
| 17 | Houston Astros | 58-58 | -7.1% |
| 18 | Boston Red Sox | 58-56 | -7.5% |
| 19 | Baltimore Orioles | 59-56 | -8.4% |
| 20 | Detroit Tigers | 60-55 | -10.0% |
| 21 | Tampa Bay Rays | 60-54 | -11.3% |
| 22 | Colorado Rockies | 61-54 | -11.3% |
| 23 | Chicago White Sox | 61-53 | -12.1% |
| 24 | Washington Nationals | 63-54 | -13.6% |
| 25 | Pittsburgh Pirates | 63-54 | -14.6% |
| 26 | Milwaukee Brewers | 63-52 | -15.1% |
| 27 | Arizona Diamondbacks | 64-52 | -15.2% |
| 28 | Minnesota Twins | 65-51 | -17.0% |
| 29 | Atlanta Braves | 65-50 | -18.1% |
| 30 | Chicago Cubs | 66-50 | -19.7% |
First 5 Innings Run Line Picks
First-5 markets settle after five innings, isolating the starting pitchers and removing bullpen and late-inning noise. Washington has been the standout at 73-44, with Tampa Bay and Atlanta close behind.
| Rank | Team | ATS Record | Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Washington Nationals | 73-44 | +23.65u | +17.1% |
| 2 | Tampa Bay Rays | 66-48 | +11.60u | +8.6% |
| 3 | Atlanta Braves | 65-50 | +10.65u | +7.9% |
| 4 | Detroit Tigers | 65-49 | +9.85u | +7.1% |
| 5 | Los Angeles Angels | 64-51 | +5.55u | +4.1% |
| 6 | St. Louis Cardinals | 65-50 | +4.95u | +3.5% |
| 7 | Pittsburgh Pirates | 64-53 | +3.50u | +2.6% |
| 8 | Cincinnati Reds | 63-51 | +3.30u | +2.4% |
| 9 | Cleveland Guardians | 60-56 | -1.60u | -1.2% |
| 10 | Chicago White Sox | 60-54 | -2.70u | -2.0% |
| 11 | Milwaukee Brewers | 58-56 | -2.95u | -2.2% |
| 12 | San Diego Padres | 61-55 | -4.20u | -3.0% |
| 13 | Colorado Rockies | 58-56 | -4.25u | -3.2% |
| 14 | Miami Marlins | 59-57 | -7.85u | -5.7% |
| 15 | Minnesota Twins | 58-58 | -8.65u | -6.2% |
| 16 | Los Angeles Dodgers | 57-58 | -11.10u | -8.0% |
| 17 | Philadelphia Phillies | 55-61 | -13.10u | -9.6% |
| 18 | New York Yankees | 55-60 | -13.35u | -9.9% |
| 19 | Arizona Diamondbacks | 54-61 | -15.60u | -11.4% |
| 20 | Boston Red Sox | 53-61 | -15.85u | -11.8% |
| 21 | Kansas City Royals | 54-62 | -18.80u | -13.3% |
| 22 | Chicago Cubs | 53-63 | -18.25u | -13.4% |
| 23 | San Francisco Giants | 54-61 | -20.15u | -14.2% |
| 24 | Baltimore Orioles | 52-63 | -19.25u | -14.3% |
| 25 | Athletics | 52-63 | -19.80u | -14.8% |
| 26 | Texas Rangers | 52-63 | -20.15u | -14.8% |
| 27 | Houston Astros | 52-64 | -21.70u | -15.6% |
| 28 | New York Mets | 49-67 | -26.85u | -19.6% |
| 29 | Toronto Blue Jays | 50-66 | -27.50u | -19.9% |
| 30 | Seattle Mariners | 48-68 | -27.70u | -20.9% |
First 5 Innings Totals Picks (Over / Under)
The first-5 total tracks only the runs scored through five innings. Texas, Houston, and the Angels lead the Over side, while Toronto and San Diego flip to strong Under numbers.
Best First-5 Over Plays
| Rank | Team | Over Record (O-U) | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Texas Rangers | 67-44 | +12.7% |
| 2 | Houston Astros | 64-44 | +9.7% |
| 3 | Los Angeles Angels | 63-48 | +6.5% |
| 4 | Minnesota Twins | 63-48 | +5.8% |
| 5 | Washington Nationals | 63-48 | +5.8% |
| 6 | Atlanta Braves | 61-49 | +3.5% |
| 7 | Chicago Cubs | 62-53 | +1.1% |
| 8 | Chicago White Sox | 58-52 | -1.4% |
| 9 | New York Mets | 60-55 | -2.2% |
| 10 | Milwaukee Brewers | 57-52 | -2.4% |
| 11 | Philadelphia Phillies | 58-55 | -3.8% |
| 12 | Pittsburgh Pirates | 59-56 | -4.0% |
| 13 | Colorado Rockies | 57-54 | -4.1% |
| 14 | Arizona Diamondbacks | 56-53 | -4.2% |
| 15 | Miami Marlins | 57-55 | -4.3% |
| 16 | Baltimore Orioles | 54-52 | -4.7% |
| 17 | Detroit Tigers | 56-55 | -4.9% |
| 18 | Boston Red Sox | 55-54 | -5.3% |
| 19 | Athletics | 55-56 | -6.2% |
| 20 | San Francisco Giants | 55-55 | -6.5% |
| 21 | Cincinnati Reds | 53-57 | -9.1% |
| 22 | Los Angeles Dodgers | 54-59 | -10.8% |
| 23 | Tampa Bay Rays | 52-58 | -11.0% |
| 24 | Seattle Mariners | 49-59 | -14.5% |
| 25 | New York Yankees | 51-61 | -14.7% |
| 26 | Kansas City Royals | 51-63 | -15.3% |
| 27 | Cleveland Guardians | 45-61 | -19.0% |
| 28 | St. Louis Cardinals | 46-64 | -21.4% |
| 29 | San Diego Padres | 46-65 | -22.4% |
| 30 | Toronto Blue Jays | 43-69 | -27.8% |
Best First-5 Under Plays
| Rank | Team | Under Record (O-U) | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toronto Blue Jays | 43-69 | +15.4% |
| 2 | San Diego Padres | 46-65 | +9.5% |
| 3 | St. Louis Cardinals | 46-64 | +8.8% |
| 4 | Cleveland Guardians | 45-61 | +7.8% |
| 5 | Kansas City Royals | 51-63 | +4.1% |
| 6 | Seattle Mariners | 49-59 | +3.0% |
| 7 | New York Yankees | 51-61 | +1.2% |
| 8 | Tampa Bay Rays | 52-58 | -1.2% |
| 9 | Los Angeles Dodgers | 54-59 | -1.9% |
| 10 | Cincinnati Reds | 53-57 | -2.9% |
| 11 | San Francisco Giants | 55-55 | -4.7% |
| 12 | Athletics | 55-56 | -5.1% |
| 13 | Baltimore Orioles | 54-52 | -6.6% |
| 14 | Detroit Tigers | 56-55 | -7.5% |
| 15 | Boston Red Sox | 55-54 | -7.5% |
| 16 | Arizona Diamondbacks | 56-53 | -7.9% |
| 17 | Colorado Rockies | 57-54 | -8.0% |
| 18 | Miami Marlins | 57-55 | -8.0% |
| 19 | Pittsburgh Pirates | 59-56 | -9.0% |
| 20 | Philadelphia Phillies | 58-55 | -9.4% |
| 21 | Milwaukee Brewers | 57-52 | -9.7% |
| 22 | Chicago White Sox | 58-52 | -9.8% |
| 23 | New York Mets | 60-55 | -10.4% |
| 24 | Chicago Cubs | 62-53 | -14.3% |
| 25 | Atlanta Braves | 61-49 | -15.7% |
| 26 | Los Angeles Angels | 63-48 | -17.6% |
| 27 | Minnesota Twins | 63-48 | -17.7% |
| 28 | Washington Nationals | 63-48 | -18.0% |
| 29 | Houston Astros | 64-44 | -21.1% |
| 30 | Texas Rangers | 67-44 | -25.0% |
Trends to Fade
Four teams have lost money across the board and belong on the other side of your best bets: the Philadelphia Phillies (run line minus 21.7 percent), the New York Mets (moneyline minus 21.5 percent, first-5 run line minus 19.6 percent), the Athletics (moneyline minus 20.4 percent), and the Los Angeles Angels (moneyline minus 16.8 percent). Note that Philadelphia is a run-line fade but a top-three full-game Under, so those two angles pair rather than conflict.
Methodology
Every market treats each qualifying game as a flat 1-unit wager settled at the closing line. A win is a cover, a straight-up win, or an Over or Under, depending on the market. Units is the cumulative profit or loss; ROI is units divided by total bets, shown as a percentage. Home and away splits apply the same method to that subset of games. Flat staking keeps all 30 teams on equal footing so a handful of heavy favorites or longshots cannot distort the rankings.
For more MLB picks, parlays, and best bets, visit MLB Picks.
Frequently Asked Questions
Which MLB team has the best run line trend in 2026?
The Tampa Bay Rays lead the league against the run line at 64-49, returning 17.2 percent on flat 1-unit stakes. The Milwaukee Brewers are second at 62-53 (plus 13.6 percent), with Atlanta third, making all three reliable cover teams this season.
Which teams should bettors fade right now?
The Philadelphia Phillies are the worst run-line team in baseball at 46-69 (minus 21.7 percent), and the New York Mets have been the biggest moneyline drain at 50-66 (minus 21.5 percent). The Athletics are negative across the run line and moneyline, so there is no split that rescues them.
What is the difference between the run line and the moneyline?
The moneyline is a straight-up bet on who wins. The run line applies a 1.5-run spread — the favorite must win by two or more, or the underdog must lose by one or win outright. Because so many MLB games are decided by a single run, run-line results often diverge sharply from moneyline records.
Which teams are the strongest Over plays?
The Chicago White Sox top the full-game Over board at 64-48 (plus 9.2 percent), with the Washington Nationals and Pittsburgh Pirates close behind. The Chicago Cubs and Atlanta lead the team-total Overs, so those lineups have cleared the number from a different angle.
Which teams are the best Under plays?
The St. Louis Cardinals lead full-game Unders at 45-65 (plus 12.1 percent), with Milwaukee and the Los Angeles Angels close behind. On team totals, the New York Mets are the strongest Under side at plus 13.4 percent, followed by the Los Angeles Angels.
Do first-5-innings trends differ from full-game trends?
Yes. The first-5 markets isolate the starting pitchers and remove bullpen and late-inning scoring. Washington leads the F5 run line at 73-44, while Toronto and San Diego flip to strong F5 Under sides even though their full-game numbers look different.
How often are these trends updated?
These tables reflect the 2026 season through August 7 and are refreshed as new results come in. Records and ROI move daily during the season, so check back before locking in picks.
How is ROI calculated?
Every wager is treated as a flat 1-unit stake at the closing line. Units is the running profit or loss across all of a team's games; ROI is that unit total divided by the number of bets, expressed as a percentage. A positive ROI means backing that side blindly all season would have turned a profit.
How We Use These Trends
Season-long ROI tables are a starting point, not a finished play. A team covering the run line at a strong clip tells you the market has been slow to adjust to how it wins games — but the matchup, the starting pitcher, and the closing number still decide each night. We treat these rankings as a filter: they surface which sides the market has mispriced across a full season, and from there the daily picks come down to the specific game in front of us.
21+. Please play responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER. Odds and records reflect the 2026 MLB season through August 7, 2026 and are subject to change.
