2026 MLB Betting Trends: Best Run Line, Moneyline, and Totals Picks by Team
2026 MLB Betting Trends: Best Run Line, Moneyline, and Totals Picks by Team
The 2026 MLB season has produced clear separation in the betting market, and the team-by-team numbers tell the story. The Tampa Bay Rays have been the most profitable club to back on the run line, while the Philadelphia Phillies and Athletics have been steady money-losers no matter the side. Below are the full 30-team rankings for every major market, sorted by return on investment, to sharpen your best bets and build smarter parlays.
Records reflect flat 1-unit stakes at the closing line through August 18, 2026. A positive ROI means blindly backing that side all season would have shown a profit.
Best Season-Long Trends at a Glance
Four angles stand out across the full board this season: Tampa Bay on the run line (69-53, plus 16.7 percent), Washington on the first-5 run line (79-47, plus 17.8 percent), the Mets on team-total Unders (plus 13.9 percent), and the Chicago White Sox on full-game Overs (71-51, plus 11.1 percent). Each is anchored by a large sample, which is what separates a genuine market edge from a hot streak.
Run Line Picks (Against the Spread)
The run line applies a 1.5-run spread to every game. Tampa Bay leads the league at 69-53, with Atlanta and Milwaukee close behind. On the other end, Philadelphia has been baseball's worst run-line team by a wide margin.
| Rank | Team | ATS Record | Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tampa Bay Rays | 69-53 | +24.80u | +16.7% |
| 2 | Atlanta Braves | 65-59 | +14.45u | +10.1% |
| 3 | Milwaukee Brewers | 65-60 | +13.75u | +9.6% |
| 4 | Washington Nationals | 73-51 | +11.95u | +7.0% |
| 5 | Chicago White Sox | 71-50 | +7.15u | +4.0% |
| 6 | San Diego Padres | 68-56 | +6.60u | +3.9% |
| 7 | Baltimore Orioles | 66-58 | +5.15u | +3.1% |
| 8 | Boston Red Sox | 61-60 | +2.50u | +1.6% |
| 9 | Chicago Cubs | 61-63 | +1.55u | +1.1% |
| 10 | Arizona Diamondbacks | 67-55 | +1.00u | +0.6% |
| 11 | St. Louis Cardinals | 68-55 | -1.80u | -1.0% |
| 12 | New York Yankees | 58-65 | -1.85u | -1.3% |
| 13 | Miami Marlins | 65-59 | -2.25u | -1.3% |
| 14 | Minnesota Twins | 68-57 | -2.85u | -1.6% |
| 15 | Houston Astros | 63-62 | -3.45u | -2.1% |
| 16 | Colorado Rockies | 66-59 | -4.30u | -2.7% |
| 17 | Toronto Blue Jays | 63-62 | -4.75u | -2.9% |
| 18 | Detroit Tigers | 58-62 | -5.00u | -3.2% |
| 19 | Cincinnati Reds | 65-58 | -8.45u | -4.8% |
| 20 | Pittsburgh Pirates | 60-64 | -10.40u | -6.4% |
| 21 | Cleveland Guardians | 58-66 | -12.85u | -8.0% |
| 22 | New York Mets | 56-68 | -12.75u | -8.2% |
| 23 | San Francisco Giants | 59-63 | -18.80u | -11.0% |
| 24 | Kansas City Royals | 58-63 | -21.10u | -12.3% |
| 25 | Texas Rangers | 54-68 | -20.90u | -13.0% |
| 26 | Los Angeles Angels | 60-64 | -23.10u | -13.4% |
| 27 | Athletics | 58-67 | -23.00u | -13.8% |
| 28 | Los Angeles Dodgers | 53-72 | -23.45u | -15.9% |
| 29 | Seattle Mariners | 47-77 | -24.95u | -17.6% |
| 30 | Philadelphia Phillies | 49-76 | -33.25u | -22.5% |
Moneyline Picks (Straight Up)
Moneyline ROI rewards teams the market has underrated, not just the ones that win most. The Tampa Bay Rays top the board at 75-49, a rare case of an elite team that still pays its backers, with the Chicago White Sox second and Milwaukee third. The Athletics have been the single biggest moneyline drain in the sport.
| Rank | Team | Record | Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tampa Bay Rays | 75-49 | +16.95u | +10.7% |
| 2 | Chicago White Sox | 65-59 | +13.05u | +9.8% |
| 3 | Milwaukee Brewers | 77-48 | +11.10u | +6.1% |
| 4 | St. Louis Cardinals | 64-62 | +7.80u | +5.7% |
| 5 | Arizona Diamondbacks | 66-60 | +7.60u | +5.2% |
| 6 | Atlanta Braves | 74-51 | +8.30u | +4.8% |
| 7 | Washington Nationals | 60-66 | +4.55u | +3.4% |
| 8 | Chicago Cubs | 73-53 | +5.35u | +3.1% |
| 9 | San Diego Padres | 67-59 | +4.45u | +3.0% |
| 10 | Miami Marlins | 64-62 | +2.60u | +1.8% |
| 11 | Colorado Rockies | 50-75 | -1.70u | -1.4% |
| 12 | Minnesota Twins | 61-65 | -2.50u | -1.8% |
| 13 | Boston Red Sox | 67-58 | -4.85u | -3.0% |
| 14 | Cincinnati Reds | 60-65 | -4.65u | -3.3% |
| 15 | Houston Astros | 63-62 | -5.45u | -3.7% |
| 16 | Philadelphia Phillies | 68-58 | -7.55u | -4.0% |
| 17 | Baltimore Orioles | 61-64 | -7.40u | -5.0% |
| 18 | New York Yankees | 69-55 | -9.65u | -5.3% |
| 19 | Cleveland Guardians | 60-65 | -10.60u | -7.1% |
| 20 | Texas Rangers | 61-64 | -10.70u | -7.2% |
| 21 | Toronto Blue Jays | 61-65 | -11.70u | -7.5% |
| 22 | Los Angeles Dodgers | 75-51 | -20.15u | -8.3% |
| 23 | Detroit Tigers | 61-64 | -14.65u | -9.3% |
| 24 | Pittsburgh Pirates | 61-66 | -15.10u | -9.7% |
| 25 | Seattle Mariners | 59-66 | -23.15u | -13.8% |
| 26 | San Francisco Giants | 51-73 | -20.25u | -14.6% |
| 27 | Los Angeles Angels | 49-76 | -19.70u | -14.8% |
| 28 | Kansas City Royals | 52-74 | -22.10u | -15.8% |
| 29 | New York Mets | 57-69 | -26.50u | -16.9% |
| 30 | Athletics | 49-76 | -26.00u | -18.7% |
Full-Game Totals Picks (Over / Under)
Totals splits cut both ways, so we rank the Over and the Under separately. The Chicago White Sox and Pittsburgh have been the league's premier Over teams, while the Los Angeles Angels and St. Louis anchor the Under side.
Best Over Plays
| Rank | Team | Over Record (O-U) | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chicago White Sox | 71-51 | +11.1% |
| 2 | Pittsburgh Pirates | 71-52 | +10.1% |
| 3 | Washington Nationals | 67-53 | +6.8% |
| 4 | Minnesota Twins | 66-52 | +5.8% |
| 5 | Houston Astros | 66-52 | +5.8% |
| 6 | Chicago Cubs | 68-56 | +5.0% |
| 7 | Texas Rangers | 63-56 | +1.3% |
| 8 | Baltimore Orioles | 64-57 | +1.0% |
| 9 | Cincinnati Reds | 65-58 | +0.8% |
| 10 | Seattle Mariners | 61-57 | -1.1% |
| 11 | Athletics | 62-59 | -1.8% |
| 12 | Toronto Blue Jays | 62-61 | -3.6% |
| 13 | Miami Marlins | 62-61 | -3.9% |
| 14 | Colorado Rockies | 61-61 | -5.0% |
| 15 | San Francisco Giants | 56-57 | -5.0% |
| 16 | Atlanta Braves | 58-61 | -6.6% |
| 17 | New York Mets | 56-60 | -7.8% |
| 18 | Cleveland Guardians | 60-65 | -8.1% |
| 19 | Tampa Bay Rays | 56-63 | -9.4% |
| 20 | Philadelphia Phillies | 56-63 | -9.5% |
| 21 | Detroit Tigers | 56-63 | -9.5% |
| 22 | Kansas City Royals | 58-65 | -9.6% |
| 23 | Los Angeles Dodgers | 59-66 | -10.1% |
| 24 | Boston Red Sox | 57-64 | -10.2% |
| 25 | San Diego Padres | 56-67 | -12.8% |
| 26 | Arizona Diamondbacks | 53-67 | -14.9% |
| 27 | Milwaukee Brewers | 53-69 | -16.4% |
| 28 | New York Yankees | 52-68 | -17.0% |
| 29 | St. Louis Cardinals | 51-69 | -18.2% |
| 30 | Los Angeles Angels | 52-71 | -18.6% |
Best Under Plays
| Rank | Team | Under Record (O-U) | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Los Angeles Angels | 52-71 | +10.5% |
| 2 | St. Louis Cardinals | 51-69 | +9.2% |
| 3 | New York Yankees | 52-68 | +8.1% |
| 4 | Milwaukee Brewers | 53-69 | +8.0% |
| 5 | Arizona Diamondbacks | 53-67 | +6.7% |
| 6 | San Diego Padres | 56-67 | +4.2% |
| 7 | Detroit Tigers | 56-63 | +1.4% |
| 8 | Kansas City Royals | 58-65 | +1.3% |
| 9 | Philadelphia Phillies | 56-63 | +1.3% |
| 10 | Los Angeles Dodgers | 59-66 | +1.0% |
| 11 | Boston Red Sox | 57-64 | +0.8% |
| 12 | Tampa Bay Rays | 56-63 | +0.8% |
| 13 | Cleveland Guardians | 60-65 | -1.2% |
| 14 | Atlanta Braves | 58-61 | -1.3% |
| 15 | New York Mets | 56-60 | -1.3% |
| 16 | San Francisco Giants | 56-57 | -3.2% |
| 17 | Colorado Rockies | 61-61 | -3.8% |
| 18 | Toronto Blue Jays | 62-61 | -4.9% |
| 19 | Miami Marlins | 62-61 | -5.1% |
| 20 | Athletics | 62-59 | -6.4% |
| 21 | Seattle Mariners | 61-57 | -7.1% |
| 22 | Texas Rangers | 63-56 | -9.0% |
| 23 | Baltimore Orioles | 64-57 | -9.3% |
| 24 | Cincinnati Reds | 65-58 | -9.5% |
| 25 | Chicago Cubs | 68-56 | -13.2% |
| 26 | Washington Nationals | 67-53 | -14.7% |
| 27 | Minnesota Twins | 66-52 | -15.0% |
| 28 | Houston Astros | 66-52 | -15.1% |
| 29 | Pittsburgh Pirates | 71-52 | -18.5% |
| 30 | Chicago White Sox | 71-51 | -20.1% |
Team Total Picks (Over / Under)
Team totals isolate one club's run production rather than the combined score. The Chicago Cubs and Washington have cleared their team numbers more than any other lineups, while the Mets and Dodgers have been the most dependable team-total Under sides.
Best Team-Total Over Plays
| Rank | Team | Over Record (O-U) | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chicago Cubs | 71-55 | +5.3% |
| 2 | Washington Nationals | 70-56 | +4.6% |
| 3 | Minnesota Twins | 70-56 | +4.6% |
| 4 | Chicago White Sox | 69-55 | +4.6% |
| 5 | Atlanta Braves | 68-57 | +2.3% |
| 6 | Milwaukee Brewers | 67-58 | +1.9% |
| 7 | Arizona Diamondbacks | 68-58 | +1.6% |
| 8 | Baltimore Orioles | 67-58 | +1.0% |
| 9 | Pittsburgh Pirates | 68-59 | +0.5% |
| 10 | Detroit Tigers | 66-59 | -0.4% |
| 11 | Colorado Rockies | 67-58 | -0.6% |
| 12 | Tampa Bay Rays | 66-58 | -0.6% |
| 13 | Boston Red Sox | 64-61 | -3.4% |
| 14 | St. Louis Cardinals | 64-62 | -3.8% |
| 15 | Houston Astros | 62-63 | -5.0% |
| 16 | Cleveland Guardians | 63-62 | -6.3% |
| 17 | San Diego Padres | 61-65 | -8.6% |
| 18 | Philadelphia Phillies | 60-66 | -9.8% |
| 19 | Miami Marlins | 59-67 | -10.8% |
| 20 | Texas Rangers | 59-66 | -12.3% |
| 21 | Toronto Blue Jays | 55-71 | -17.6% |
| 22 | Kansas City Royals | 55-71 | -18.0% |
| 23 | Athletics | 55-70 | -18.3% |
| 24 | New York Yankees | 53-71 | -18.6% |
| 25 | San Francisco Giants | 54-70 | -18.7% |
| 26 | Cincinnati Reds | 54-71 | -19.6% |
| 27 | Seattle Mariners | 53-72 | -20.7% |
| 28 | Los Angeles Angels | 51-74 | -23.2% |
| 29 | Los Angeles Dodgers | 51-75 | -23.8% |
| 30 | New York Mets | 51-75 | -26.1% |
Best Team-Total Under Plays
| Rank | Team | Under Record (O-U) | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New York Mets | 51-75 | +13.9% |
| 2 | Los Angeles Dodgers | 51-75 | +11.9% |
| 3 | Los Angeles Angels | 51-74 | +11.3% |
| 4 | Seattle Mariners | 53-72 | +9.8% |
| 5 | Cincinnati Reds | 54-71 | +7.6% |
| 6 | San Francisco Giants | 54-70 | +7.4% |
| 7 | Toronto Blue Jays | 55-71 | +6.7% |
| 8 | Kansas City Royals | 55-71 | +6.3% |
| 9 | New York Yankees | 53-71 | +6.3% |
| 10 | Athletics | 55-70 | +3.9% |
| 11 | Miami Marlins | 59-67 | +1.1% |
| 12 | Texas Rangers | 59-66 | +0.1% |
| 13 | Philadelphia Phillies | 60-66 | -1.5% |
| 14 | San Diego Padres | 61-65 | -3.9% |
| 15 | Houston Astros | 62-63 | -6.6% |
| 16 | Cleveland Guardians | 63-62 | -6.6% |
| 17 | St. Louis Cardinals | 64-62 | -7.7% |
| 18 | Boston Red Sox | 64-61 | -8.2% |
| 19 | Detroit Tigers | 66-59 | -11.5% |
| 20 | Colorado Rockies | 67-58 | -12.1% |
| 21 | Tampa Bay Rays | 66-58 | -12.4% |
| 22 | Milwaukee Brewers | 67-58 | -12.6% |
| 23 | Arizona Diamondbacks | 68-58 | -12.8% |
| 24 | Baltimore Orioles | 67-58 | -13.2% |
| 25 | Pittsburgh Pirates | 68-59 | -13.8% |
| 26 | Atlanta Braves | 68-57 | -14.3% |
| 27 | Chicago White Sox | 69-55 | -16.1% |
| 28 | Minnesota Twins | 70-56 | -16.3% |
| 29 | Washington Nationals | 70-56 | -16.6% |
| 30 | Chicago Cubs | 71-55 | -19.0% |
First 5 Innings Run Line Picks
First-5 markets settle after five innings, isolating the starting pitchers and removing bullpen and late-inning noise. Washington has been the standout at 79-47, with Tampa Bay and St. Louis close behind.
| Rank | Team | ATS Record | Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Washington Nationals | 79-47 | +26.40u | +17.8% |
| 2 | Tampa Bay Rays | 71-53 | +11.25u | +7.6% |
| 3 | St. Louis Cardinals | 74-52 | +11.55u | +7.5% |
| 4 | Atlanta Braves | 70-55 | +10.30u | +7.1% |
| 5 | Detroit Tigers | 69-55 | +7.75u | +5.2% |
| 6 | Los Angeles Angels | 69-56 | +4.15u | +2.8% |
| 7 | Pittsburgh Pirates | 68-59 | +0.10u | +0.1% |
| 8 | Milwaukee Brewers | 64-60 | -1.10u | -0.8% |
| 9 | Chicago White Sox | 66-58 | -1.15u | -0.8% |
| 10 | Cincinnati Reds | 66-59 | -3.55u | -2.3% |
| 11 | Cleveland Guardians | 63-62 | -4.90u | -3.4% |
| 12 | San Diego Padres | 66-60 | -5.45u | -3.6% |
| 13 | Minnesota Twins | 64-62 | -7.15u | -4.7% |
| 14 | Miami Marlins | 64-62 | -9.05u | -6.0% |
| 15 | Colorado Rockies | 61-63 | -8.95u | -6.2% |
| 16 | Arizona Diamondbacks | 61-64 | -12.60u | -8.4% |
| 17 | San Francisco Giants | 62-62 | -13.10u | -8.6% |
| 18 | Philadelphia Phillies | 60-66 | -14.30u | -9.7% |
| 19 | Boston Red Sox | 59-66 | -14.85u | -10.2% |
| 20 | Baltimore Orioles | 59-66 | -15.45u | -10.5% |
| 21 | Kansas City Royals | 60-66 | -17.00u | -11.2% |
| 22 | Los Angeles Dodgers | 60-66 | -17.30u | -11.4% |
| 23 | New York Yankees | 57-67 | -19.35u | -13.3% |
| 24 | Athletics | 57-68 | -20.10u | -13.8% |
| 25 | Chicago Cubs | 57-69 | -21.45u | -14.5% |
| 26 | New York Mets | 55-71 | -25.85u | -17.3% |
| 27 | Toronto Blue Jays | 56-70 | -26.10u | -17.4% |
| 28 | Houston Astros | 54-71 | -27.25u | -18.2% |
| 29 | Texas Rangers | 54-71 | -26.90u | -18.2% |
| 30 | Seattle Mariners | 53-72 | -27.65u | -19.2% |
First 5 Innings Totals Picks (Over / Under)
The first-5 total tracks only the runs scored through five innings. Minnesota, Houston, and Texas lead the Over side, while Toronto and San Diego flip to strong Under numbers.
Best First-5 Over Plays
| Rank | Team | Over Record (O-U) | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Minnesota Twins | 71-49 | +10.1% |
| 2 | Houston Astros | 68-49 | +7.9% |
| 3 | Texas Rangers | 69-52 | +6.7% |
| 4 | Chicago Cubs | 71-54 | +6.5% |
| 5 | Washington Nationals | 68-52 | +5.7% |
| 6 | Los Angeles Angels | 67-54 | +3.8% |
| 7 | Chicago White Sox | 66-54 | +2.6% |
| 8 | Atlanta Braves | 65-55 | +1.2% |
| 9 | Colorado Rockies | 63-56 | -1.1% |
| 10 | Pittsburgh Pirates | 66-59 | -1.2% |
| 11 | Detroit Tigers | 63-58 | -2.1% |
| 12 | Milwaukee Brewers | 62-57 | -2.6% |
| 13 | New York Mets | 65-60 | -2.8% |
| 14 | Philadelphia Phillies | 63-59 | -3.0% |
| 15 | Arizona Diamondbacks | 61-58 | -4.2% |
| 16 | Baltimore Orioles | 59-57 | -4.8% |
| 17 | Boston Red Sox | 60-59 | -5.5% |
| 18 | Miami Marlins | 61-61 | -6.0% |
| 19 | Athletics | 59-61 | -6.7% |
| 20 | San Francisco Giants | 58-61 | -8.7% |
| 21 | Los Angeles Dodgers | 59-65 | -10.9% |
| 22 | Cincinnati Reds | 57-64 | -11.3% |
| 23 | Kansas City Royals | 58-66 | -11.6% |
| 24 | Tampa Bay Rays | 56-64 | -12.0% |
| 25 | Cleveland Guardians | 51-64 | -15.9% |
| 26 | Seattle Mariners | 52-65 | -16.3% |
| 27 | New York Yankees | 53-68 | -17.8% |
| 28 | St. Louis Cardinals | 50-69 | -20.8% |
| 29 | San Diego Padres | 51-70 | -21.0% |
| 30 | Toronto Blue Jays | 46-76 | -29.1% |
Best First-5 Under Plays
| Rank | Team | Under Record (O-U) | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toronto Blue Jays | 46-76 | +16.7% |
| 2 | San Diego Padres | 51-70 | +8.3% |
| 3 | St. Louis Cardinals | 50-69 | +8.2% |
| 4 | Seattle Mariners | 52-65 | +4.7% |
| 5 | New York Yankees | 53-68 | +4.6% |
| 6 | Cleveland Guardians | 51-64 | +4.4% |
| 7 | Kansas City Royals | 58-66 | +0.4% |
| 8 | Tampa Bay Rays | 56-64 | -0.2% |
| 9 | Cincinnati Reds | 57-64 | -0.9% |
| 10 | Los Angeles Dodgers | 59-65 | -1.1% |
| 11 | San Francisco Giants | 58-61 | -2.6% |
| 12 | Athletics | 59-61 | -4.4% |
| 13 | Miami Marlins | 61-61 | -6.4% |
| 14 | Baltimore Orioles | 59-57 | -6.6% |
| 15 | Boston Red Sox | 60-59 | -7.4% |
| 16 | Arizona Diamondbacks | 61-58 | -7.5% |
| 17 | Milwaukee Brewers | 62-57 | -9.3% |
| 18 | Philadelphia Phillies | 63-59 | -9.9% |
| 19 | New York Mets | 65-60 | -10.1% |
| 20 | Detroit Tigers | 63-58 | -10.6% |
| 21 | Colorado Rockies | 63-56 | -10.6% |
| 22 | Pittsburgh Pirates | 66-59 | -11.8% |
| 23 | Atlanta Braves | 65-55 | -13.4% |
| 24 | Chicago White Sox | 66-54 | -14.3% |
| 25 | Los Angeles Angels | 67-54 | -15.0% |
| 26 | Washington Nationals | 68-52 | -17.8% |
| 27 | Texas Rangers | 69-52 | -19.0% |
| 28 | Houston Astros | 68-49 | -19.3% |
| 29 | Chicago Cubs | 71-54 | -19.8% |
| 30 | Minnesota Twins | 71-49 | -22.1% |
Trends to Fade
Four teams have lost money across the board and belong on the other side of your best bets: the Philadelphia Phillies (run line minus 22.5 percent), the Athletics (moneyline minus 18.7 percent), the Kansas City Royals (moneyline minus 15.8 percent), and the New York Mets (moneyline minus 16.9 percent, first-5 run line minus 15.8 percent). Note that the Angels are a moneyline fade but lead the league's full-game Unders, so those angles pair rather than conflict.
Methodology
Every market treats each qualifying game as a flat 1-unit wager settled at the closing line. A win is a cover, a straight-up win, or an Over or Under, depending on the market. Units is the cumulative profit or loss; ROI is units divided by total bets, shown as a percentage. Home and away splits apply the same method to that subset of games. Flat staking keeps all 30 teams on equal footing so a handful of heavy favorites or longshots cannot distort the rankings.
For more MLB picks, parlays, and best bets, visit MLB Picks.
Frequently Asked Questions
Which MLB team has the best run line trend in 2026?
The Tampa Bay Rays lead the league against the run line at 69-53, returning 16.7 percent on flat 1-unit stakes. The Atlanta Braves are second at 65-59 (plus 10.1 percent), with Milwaukee third, making all three reliable cover teams this season.
Which teams should bettors fade right now?
The Philadelphia Phillies are the worst run-line team in baseball at 49-76 (minus 22.5 percent), and the Athletics have been the biggest moneyline drain at 49-76 (minus 18.7 percent). The Athletics are negative across the run line and moneyline, so there is no split that rescues them.
What is the difference between the run line and the moneyline?
The moneyline is a straight-up bet on who wins. The run line applies a 1.5-run spread — the favorite must win by two or more, or the underdog must lose by one or win outright. Because so many MLB games are decided by a single run, run-line results often diverge sharply from moneyline records.
Which teams are the strongest Over plays?
The Chicago White Sox top the full-game Over board at 71-51 (plus 11.1 percent), with the Pittsburgh Pirates and Washington Nationals close behind. The Chicago Cubs and Washington lead the team-total Overs, so those lineups have cleared the number from a different angle.
Which teams are the best Under plays?
The Los Angeles Angels lead full-game Unders at 52-71 (plus 10.5 percent), with St. Louis and the New York Yankees close behind. On team totals, the New York Mets are the strongest Under side at plus 13.9 percent, followed by the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Do first-5-innings trends differ from full-game trends?
Yes. The first-5 markets isolate the starting pitchers and remove bullpen and late-inning scoring. Washington leads the F5 run line at 79-47, while Toronto and San Diego flip to strong F5 Under sides even though their full-game numbers look different.
How often are these trends updated?
These tables reflect the 2026 season through August 18 and are refreshed as new results come in. Records and ROI move daily during the season, so check back before locking in picks.
How is ROI calculated?
Every wager is treated as a flat 1-unit stake at the closing line. Units is the running profit or loss across all of a team's games; ROI is that unit total divided by the number of bets, expressed as a percentage. A positive ROI means backing that side blindly all season would have turned a profit.
How We Use These Trends
Season-long ROI tables are a starting point, not a finished play. A team covering the run line at a strong clip tells you the market has been slow to adjust to how it wins games — but the matchup, the starting pitcher, and the closing number still decide each night. We treat these rankings as a filter: they surface which sides the market has mispriced across a full season, and from there the daily picks come down to the specific game in front of us.
21+. Please play responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER. Odds and records reflect the 2026 MLB season through August 18, 2026 and are subject to change.
