2026 MLB Betting Trends: Best Run Line, Moneyline, and Totals Picks by Team
2026 MLB Betting Trends: Best Run Line, Moneyline, and Totals Picks by Team
The 2026 MLB season has produced clear separation in the betting market, and the team-by-team numbers tell the story. The Tampa Bay Rays have been the most profitable club to back on the run line, while the Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets have been steady money-losers no matter the side. Below are the full 30-team rankings for every major market, sorted by return on investment, to sharpen your best bets and build smarter parlays.
Records reflect flat 1-unit stakes at the closing line through July 24, 2026. A positive ROI means blindly backing that side all season would have shown a profit.
Best Season-Long Trends at a Glance
Four angles stand out across the full board this season: Tampa Bay on the run line (58-43, plus 17.7 percent), Washington on the first-5 run line (66-37, plus 20.0 percent, including 36-16 on the road), the Mets on team-total Unders (41-62, plus 14.8 percent), and Washington again on full-game Overs (58-40, plus 12.8 percent). Each is anchored by a large sample, which is what separates a genuine market edge from a hot streak.
Run Line Picks (Against the Spread)
The run line applies a 1.5-run spread to every game. Tampa Bay leads the league at 58-43, with Milwaukee second and Washington third at 61-40. On the other end, Philadelphia has been baseball's worst run-line team by a wide margin.
| Rank | Team | ATS Record | Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tampa Bay Rays | 58-43 | +22.10u | +17.7% |
| 2 | Milwaukee Brewers | 54-48 | +13.60u | +11.5% |
| 3 | Washington Nationals | 61-40 | +13.45u | +9.7% |
| 4 | Atlanta Braves | 53-48 | +9.95u | +8.5% |
| 5 | Arizona Diamondbacks | 56-44 | +4.00u | +2.9% |
| 6 | Chicago White Sox | 57-41 | +4.10u | +2.8% |
| 7 | St. Louis Cardinals | 57-42 | +3.00u | +2.1% |
| 8 | Pittsburgh Pirates | 52-49 | +1.40u | +1.1% |
| 9 | New York Yankees | 49-52 | +0.85u | +0.7% |
| 10 | San Diego Padres | 54-47 | +0.65u | +0.5% |
| 11 | Baltimore Orioles | 52-50 | +0.05u | +0.0% |
| 12 | Boston Red Sox | 48-49 | -0.10u | -0.1% |
| 13 | Cincinnati Reds | 55-45 | -2.90u | -2.0% |
| 14 | Miami Marlins | 53-49 | -3.30u | -2.4% |
| 15 | Minnesota Twins | 56-48 | -4.90u | -3.3% |
| 16 | Colorado Rockies | 55-49 | -4.75u | -3.6% |
| 17 | Cleveland Guardians | 50-53 | -5.55u | -4.1% |
| 18 | Detroit Tigers | 47-51 | -6.55u | -5.0% |
| 19 | Houston Astros | 51-53 | -8.70u | -6.2% |
| 20 | Chicago Cubs | 45-56 | -8.95u | -7.5% |
| 21 | Toronto Blue Jays | 48-54 | -10.35u | -7.7% |
| 22 | Los Angeles Angels | 51-51 | -13.05u | -9.3% |
| 23 | New York Mets | 44-57 | -12.10u | -9.8% |
| 24 | Los Angeles Dodgers | 47-56 | -12.60u | -10.4% |
| 25 | Texas Rangers | 45-54 | -14.25u | -10.8% |
| 26 | Seattle Mariners | 41-62 | -12.60u | -11.2% |
| 27 | Athletics | 48-54 | -17.80u | -12.9% |
| 28 | San Francisco Giants | 46-54 | -20.60u | -14.7% |
| 29 | Kansas City Royals | 45-55 | -25.05u | -17.3% |
| 30 | Philadelphia Phillies | 39-63 | -30.25u | -24.9% |
Moneyline Picks (Straight Up)
Moneyline ROI rewards teams the market has underrated, not just the ones that win most. The Chicago White Sox top the board at 54-47 because so many of those wins came at plus money, with Washington second and Milwaukee third. The Brewers own the best record in baseball at 64-38, and even at a modest return that is a rare case of an elite favorite still paying its backers. The Mets have been the single biggest moneyline drain in the sport.
| Rank | Team | Record | Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chicago White Sox | 54-47 | +14.20u | +13.1% |
| 2 | Washington Nationals | 52-51 | +10.60u | +9.6% |
| 3 | Milwaukee Brewers | 64-38 | +12.70u | +8.7% |
| 4 | Tampa Bay Rays | 59-43 | +9.95u | +7.9% |
| 5 | St. Louis Cardinals | 52-50 | +6.10u | +5.6% |
| 6 | Arizona Diamondbacks | 54-49 | +5.90u | +4.9% |
| 7 | Atlanta Braves | 60-42 | +5.85u | +4.2% |
| 8 | Miami Marlins | 52-51 | +1.55u | +1.3% |
| 9 | Cleveland Guardians | 54-50 | +1.35u | +1.1% |
| 10 | Minnesota Twins | 51-53 | +0.40u | +0.3% |
| 11 | Chicago Cubs | 57-45 | +0.15u | +0.1% |
| 12 | Philadelphia Phillies | 56-47 | -2.35u | -1.6% |
| 13 | Colorado Rockies | 41-63 | -1.70u | -1.6% |
| 14 | Pittsburgh Pirates | 53-50 | -5.00u | -3.9% |
| 15 | Texas Rangers | 51-51 | -5.40u | -4.5% |
| 16 | Los Angeles Dodgers | 65-38 | -9.45u | -4.7% |
| 17 | San Diego Padres | 50-53 | -5.70u | -4.8% |
| 18 | New York Yankees | 57-45 | -7.70u | -5.0% |
| 19 | Cincinnati Reds | 47-54 | -6.45u | -5.7% |
| 20 | Boston Red Sox | 52-49 | -7.30u | -5.8% |
| 21 | Houston Astros | 50-54 | -7.35u | -6.2% |
| 22 | Baltimore Orioles | 50-53 | -7.70u | -6.3% |
| 23 | Detroit Tigers | 49-54 | -12.20u | -9.7% |
| 24 | Seattle Mariners | 51-52 | -16.35u | -11.6% |
| 25 | Los Angeles Angels | 41-62 | -15.90u | -14.4% |
| 26 | San Francisco Giants | 42-60 | -17.15u | -15.0% |
| 27 | Athletics | 43-59 | -17.85u | -15.4% |
| 28 | Toronto Blue Jays | 47-56 | -20.20u | -15.6% |
| 29 | Kansas City Royals | 43-61 | -20.00u | -17.2% |
| 30 | New York Mets | 43-60 | -32.15u | -24.6% |
Full-Game Totals Picks (Over / Under)
Totals splits cut both ways, so we rank the Over and the Under separately. Washington and Pittsburgh have been the league's premier Over teams, while Philadelphia and Detroit anchor the Under side.
Best Over Plays
| Rank | Team | Over Record (O-U) | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Washington Nationals | 58-40 | +12.8% |
| 2 | Pittsburgh Pirates | 59-41 | +12.4% |
| 3 | Minnesota Twins | 57-41 | +10.0% |
| 4 | Chicago White Sox | 57-42 | +9.9% |
| 5 | Cincinnati Reds | 56-44 | +6.8% |
| 6 | Texas Rangers | 53-43 | +5.0% |
| 7 | Chicago Cubs | 54-47 | +2.6% |
| 8 | Houston Astros | 53-45 | +2.2% |
| 9 | Baltimore Orioles | 53-47 | +1.1% |
| 10 | Miami Marlins | 53-47 | +0.8% |
| 11 | Toronto Blue Jays | 52-48 | -0.4% |
| 12 | Atlanta Braves | 50-46 | -0.4% |
| 13 | Seattle Mariners | 49-48 | -3.2% |
| 14 | Athletics | 50-49 | -3.2% |
| 15 | San Francisco Giants | 46-46 | -4.3% |
| 16 | Kansas City Royals | 50-53 | -6.9% |
| 17 | New York Mets | 46-49 | -7.6% |
| 18 | Tampa Bay Rays | 46-51 | -8.8% |
| 19 | Colorado Rockies | 48-53 | -9.4% |
| 20 | Cleveland Guardians | 49-55 | -9.7% |
| 21 | San Diego Padres | 47-54 | -10.8% |
| 22 | Los Angeles Dodgers | 48-55 | -11.3% |
| 23 | Boston Red Sox | 45-52 | -11.5% |
| 24 | Arizona Diamondbacks | 44-53 | -12.3% |
| 25 | Los Angeles Angels | 46-55 | -12.5% |
| 26 | Milwaukee Brewers | 45-55 | -13.7% |
| 27 | New York Yankees | 44-54 | -14.2% |
| 28 | Detroit Tigers | 43-56 | -16.2% |
| 29 | Philadelphia Phillies | 43-56 | -16.3% |
| 30 | St. Louis Cardinals | 42-55 | -16.7% |
Best Under Plays
| Rank | Team | Under Record (O-U) | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Philadelphia Phillies | 43-56 | +8.2% |
| 2 | Detroit Tigers | 43-56 | +8.0% |
| 3 | St. Louis Cardinals | 42-55 | +7.7% |
| 4 | New York Yankees | 44-54 | +5.2% |
| 5 | Milwaukee Brewers | 45-55 | +5.0% |
| 6 | Los Angeles Angels | 46-55 | +4.6% |
| 7 | Arizona Diamondbacks | 44-53 | +4.5% |
| 8 | San Diego Padres | 47-54 | +2.4% |
| 9 | Los Angeles Dodgers | 48-55 | +2.2% |
| 10 | Boston Red Sox | 45-52 | +2.2% |
| 11 | Colorado Rockies | 48-53 | +0.6% |
| 12 | Cleveland Guardians | 49-55 | +0.5% |
| 13 | Tampa Bay Rays | 46-51 | +0.0% |
| 14 | Kansas City Royals | 50-53 | -1.3% |
| 15 | New York Mets | 46-49 | -1.7% |
| 16 | San Francisco Giants | 46-46 | -3.9% |
| 17 | Athletics | 50-49 | -5.0% |
| 18 | Seattle Mariners | 49-48 | -5.0% |
| 19 | Atlanta Braves | 50-46 | -7.4% |
| 20 | Toronto Blue Jays | 52-48 | -7.7% |
| 21 | Baltimore Orioles | 53-47 | -9.7% |
| 22 | Miami Marlins | 53-47 | -9.8% |
| 23 | Chicago Cubs | 54-47 | -10.6% |
| 24 | Houston Astros | 53-45 | -11.4% |
| 25 | Texas Rangers | 53-43 | -12.8% |
| 26 | Cincinnati Reds | 56-44 | -15.4% |
| 27 | Chicago White Sox | 57-42 | -18.8% |
| 28 | Minnesota Twins | 57-41 | -19.1% |
| 29 | Washington Nationals | 58-40 | -20.7% |
| 30 | Pittsburgh Pirates | 59-41 | -20.9% |
Team Total Picks (Over / Under)
Team totals isolate one club's run production rather than the combined score. Minnesota and Atlanta have cleared their team numbers more than any other lineups, while the Mets and Giants have been the most dependable team-total Under sides.
Best Team-Total Over Plays
| Rank | Team | Over Record (O-U) | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Minnesota Twins | 62-42 | +11.7% |
| 2 | Atlanta Braves | 61-41 | +11.5% |
| 3 | Pittsburgh Pirates | 59-44 | +7.6% |
| 4 | Arizona Diamondbacks | 58-45 | +6.0% |
| 5 | Washington Nationals | 58-45 | +5.8% |
| 6 | Chicago Cubs | 57-45 | +5.3% |
| 7 | Milwaukee Brewers | 56-46 | +4.3% |
| 8 | Tampa Bay Rays | 57-45 | +4.1% |
| 9 | Chicago White Sox | 54-47 | +0.5% |
| 10 | St. Louis Cardinals | 54-48 | -0.4% |
| 11 | Baltimore Orioles | 54-49 | -2.0% |
| 12 | Colorado Rockies | 54-50 | -4.0% |
| 13 | Detroit Tigers | 52-51 | -4.5% |
| 14 | Boston Red Sox | 51-50 | -5.0% |
| 15 | Cleveland Guardians | 52-52 | -6.8% |
| 16 | Houston Astros | 50-54 | -7.5% |
| 17 | Miami Marlins | 49-54 | -9.3% |
| 18 | Texas Rangers | 49-53 | -10.1% |
| 19 | San Diego Padres | 48-55 | -11.9% |
| 20 | Philadelphia Phillies | 47-56 | -13.8% |
| 21 | New York Yankees | 46-56 | -14.1% |
| 22 | Athletics | 45-57 | -18.2% |
| 23 | Cincinnati Reds | 44-57 | -18.8% |
| 24 | Kansas City Royals | 45-59 | -19.2% |
| 25 | Toronto Blue Jays | 44-59 | -20.1% |
| 26 | Los Angeles Dodgers | 44-59 | -20.1% |
| 27 | Seattle Mariners | 44-59 | -20.4% |
| 28 | Los Angeles Angels | 43-60 | -21.5% |
| 29 | San Francisco Giants | 42-60 | -23.0% |
| 30 | New York Mets | 41-62 | -27.4% |
Best Team-Total Under Plays
| Rank | Team | Under Record (O-U) | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New York Mets | 41-62 | +14.8% |
| 2 | San Francisco Giants | 42-60 | +12.5% |
| 3 | Toronto Blue Jays | 44-59 | +9.2% |
| 4 | Los Angeles Angels | 43-60 | +9.1% |
| 5 | Seattle Mariners | 44-59 | +8.7% |
| 6 | Los Angeles Dodgers | 44-59 | +7.9% |
| 7 | Cincinnati Reds | 44-57 | +6.8% |
| 8 | Kansas City Royals | 45-59 | +6.6% |
| 9 | Athletics | 45-57 | +3.8% |
| 10 | New York Yankees | 46-56 | +2.6% |
| 11 | Philadelphia Phillies | 47-56 | +2.4% |
| 12 | San Diego Padres | 48-55 | -0.1% |
| 13 | Miami Marlins | 49-54 | -0.1% |
| 14 | Texas Rangers | 49-53 | -1.3% |
| 15 | Houston Astros | 50-54 | -3.9% |
| 16 | Cleveland Guardians | 52-52 | -5.6% |
| 17 | Detroit Tigers | 52-51 | -6.8% |
| 18 | Boston Red Sox | 51-50 | -7.0% |
| 19 | Colorado Rockies | 54-50 | -8.9% |
| 20 | Baltimore Orioles | 54-49 | -9.9% |
| 21 | St. Louis Cardinals | 54-48 | -11.7% |
| 22 | Chicago White Sox | 54-47 | -11.8% |
| 23 | Milwaukee Brewers | 56-46 | -15.4% |
| 24 | Arizona Diamondbacks | 58-45 | -17.2% |
| 25 | Tampa Bay Rays | 57-45 | -17.6% |
| 26 | Chicago Cubs | 57-45 | -18.3% |
| 27 | Washington Nationals | 58-45 | -18.4% |
| 28 | Pittsburgh Pirates | 59-44 | -21.0% |
| 29 | Minnesota Twins | 62-42 | -23.3% |
| 30 | Atlanta Braves | 61-41 | -24.2% |
First 5 Innings Run Line Picks
First-5 markets settle after five innings, isolating the starting pitchers and removing bullpen and late-inning noise. Washington has been the standout at 66-37, driven by a 36-16 road mark, with Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay close behind.
| Rank | Team | ATS Record | Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Washington Nationals | 66-37 | +24.30u | +20.0% |
| 2 | Pittsburgh Pirates | 60-43 | +10.75u | +8.9% |
| 3 | Tampa Bay Rays | 59-43 | +10.20u | +8.4% |
| 4 | Atlanta Braves | 57-45 | +8.95u | +7.6% |
| 5 | St. Louis Cardinals | 59-43 | +7.10u | +5.6% |
| 6 | Los Angeles Angels | 58-45 | +6.30u | +5.2% |
| 7 | Cincinnati Reds | 56-45 | +3.50u | +2.9% |
| 8 | Cleveland Guardians | 55-49 | +2.10u | +1.8% |
| 9 | Detroit Tigers | 55-47 | +1.85u | +1.5% |
| 10 | Chicago White Sox | 55-46 | +1.65u | +1.3% |
| 11 | Minnesota Twins | 55-49 | -1.05u | -0.8% |
| 12 | Milwaukee Brewers | 51-50 | -3.70u | -3.1% |
| 13 | Colorado Rockies | 52-51 | -4.90u | -4.1% |
| 14 | San Diego Padres | 53-50 | -5.90u | -4.8% |
| 15 | Los Angeles Dodgers | 52-51 | -8.00u | -6.4% |
| 16 | Miami Marlins | 52-51 | -8.05u | -6.5% |
| 17 | Boston Red Sox | 47-54 | -13.05u | -11.0% |
| 18 | Arizona Diamondbacks | 48-54 | -14.40u | -11.8% |
| 19 | Kansas City Royals | 49-55 | -16.00u | -12.6% |
| 20 | New York Yankees | 47-55 | -16.20u | -13.5% |
| 21 | Baltimore Orioles | 47-56 | -16.45u | -13.6% |
| 22 | San Francisco Giants | 48-54 | -17.40u | -13.9% |
| 23 | Philadelphia Phillies | 46-57 | -17.30u | -14.4% |
| 24 | Chicago Cubs | 45-57 | -18.95u | -16.0% |
| 25 | Athletics | 45-57 | -20.40u | -17.1% |
| 26 | Texas Rangers | 44-58 | -22.00u | -18.3% |
| 27 | Seattle Mariners | 44-59 | -21.65u | -18.4% |
| 28 | New York Mets | 44-59 | -22.70u | -18.7% |
| 29 | Toronto Blue Jays | 45-58 | -23.15u | -18.8% |
| 30 | Houston Astros | 44-60 | -25.20u | -20.1% |
First 5 Innings Totals Picks (Over / Under)
The first-5 total tracks only the runs scored through five innings. Texas, Minnesota, and Houston lead the Over side, while San Diego and Toronto flip to strong Under numbers.
Best First-5 Over Plays
| Rank | Team | Over Record (O-U) | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Texas Rangers | 59-39 | +12.4% |
| 2 | Minnesota Twins | 59-40 | +11.0% |
| 3 | Houston Astros | 58-39 | +10.4% |
| 4 | Los Angeles Angels | 58-41 | +9.7% |
| 5 | Washington Nationals | 57-40 | +9.4% |
| 6 | Atlanta Braves | 56-41 | +7.8% |
| 7 | Chicago Cubs | 57-44 | +5.7% |
| 8 | Chicago White Sox | 53-46 | +0.0% |
| 9 | Miami Marlins | 52-47 | -1.2% |
| 10 | Philadelphia Phillies | 53-48 | -1.5% |
| 11 | New York Mets | 53-49 | -2.2% |
| 12 | Arizona Diamondbacks | 51-46 | -2.2% |
| 13 | Pittsburgh Pirates | 53-49 | -2.9% |
| 14 | Baltimore Orioles | 49-46 | -3.5% |
| 15 | Milwaukee Brewers | 50-48 | -4.6% |
| 16 | Colorado Rockies | 52-50 | -4.6% |
| 17 | Athletics | 49-49 | -5.3% |
| 18 | Detroit Tigers | 50-50 | -5.6% |
| 19 | Boston Red Sox | 48-48 | -6.2% |
| 20 | Cincinnati Reds | 48-49 | -6.7% |
| 21 | Tampa Bay Rays | 48-50 | -7.8% |
| 22 | New York Yankees | 48-52 | -10.1% |
| 23 | Kansas City Royals | 48-54 | -10.8% |
| 24 | San Francisco Giants | 45-52 | -13.0% |
| 25 | Los Angeles Dodgers | 46-55 | -14.9% |
| 26 | St. Louis Cardinals | 43-54 | -17.0% |
| 27 | Seattle Mariners | 41-55 | -19.1% |
| 28 | Cleveland Guardians | 39-55 | -20.3% |
| 29 | Toronto Blue Jays | 40-59 | -24.1% |
| 30 | San Diego Padres | 39-59 | -25.3% |
Best First-5 Under Plays
| Rank | Team | Under Record (O-U) | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | San Diego Padres | 39-59 | +12.1% |
| 2 | Toronto Blue Jays | 40-59 | +11.7% |
| 3 | Cleveland Guardians | 39-55 | +9.4% |
| 4 | Seattle Mariners | 41-55 | +7.5% |
| 5 | St. Louis Cardinals | 43-54 | +4.5% |
| 6 | Los Angeles Dodgers | 46-55 | +2.5% |
| 7 | San Francisco Giants | 45-52 | +1.7% |
| 8 | Kansas City Royals | 48-54 | -0.1% |
| 9 | New York Yankees | 48-52 | -3.0% |
| 10 | Tampa Bay Rays | 48-50 | -4.4% |
| 11 | Cincinnati Reds | 48-49 | -5.3% |
| 12 | Athletics | 49-49 | -6.0% |
| 13 | Boston Red Sox | 48-48 | -6.7% |
| 14 | Detroit Tigers | 50-50 | -6.8% |
| 15 | Colorado Rockies | 52-50 | -7.5% |
| 16 | Milwaukee Brewers | 50-48 | -7.6% |
| 17 | Baltimore Orioles | 49-46 | -7.7% |
| 18 | Arizona Diamondbacks | 51-46 | -10.1% |
| 19 | New York Mets | 53-49 | -10.3% |
| 20 | Pittsburgh Pirates | 53-49 | -10.7% |
| 21 | Miami Marlins | 52-47 | -11.1% |
| 22 | Chicago White Sox | 53-46 | -11.2% |
| 23 | Philadelphia Phillies | 53-48 | -11.5% |
| 24 | Chicago Cubs | 57-44 | -18.9% |
| 25 | Atlanta Braves | 56-41 | -19.8% |
| 26 | Los Angeles Angels | 58-41 | -20.8% |
| 27 | Washington Nationals | 57-40 | -21.6% |
| 28 | Houston Astros | 58-39 | -22.1% |
| 29 | Minnesota Twins | 59-40 | -22.6% |
| 30 | Texas Rangers | 59-39 | -25.0% |
Trends to Fade
Four teams have lost money across the board and belong on the other side of your best bets: the Philadelphia Phillies (run line minus 24.9 percent), the New York Mets (moneyline minus 24.6 percent, first-5 run line minus 18.7 percent), the Kansas City Royals (run line minus 17.3 percent, moneyline minus 17.2 percent), and the Toronto Blue Jays (moneyline minus 15.6 percent, first-5 run line minus 18.8 percent). Note that Philadelphia is a run-line fade but the league's best full-game Under, and Toronto ranks second on first-5 Unders, so those angles pair rather than conflict.
Methodology
Every market treats each qualifying game as a flat 1-unit wager settled at the closing line. A win is a cover, a straight-up win, or an Over or Under, depending on the market. Units is the cumulative profit or loss; ROI is units divided by total bets, shown as a percentage. Home and away splits apply the same method to that subset of games. Flat staking keeps all 30 teams on equal footing so a handful of heavy favorites or longshots cannot distort the rankings.
For more MLB picks, parlays, and best bets, visit MLB Picks.
Frequently Asked Questions
Which MLB team has the best run line trend in 2026?
The Tampa Bay Rays lead the league against the run line at 58-43, returning 17.7 percent on flat 1-unit stakes. The Milwaukee Brewers are second at 54-48 (plus 11.5 percent), with Washington third at 61-40, making all three reliable cover teams this season.
Which teams should bettors fade right now?
The Philadelphia Phillies are the worst run-line team in baseball at 39-63 (minus 24.9 percent), and the New York Mets have been the biggest moneyline drain at 43-60 (minus 24.6 percent). The Kansas City Royals are deeply negative in both markets, so there is no split that rescues them.
What is the difference between the run line and the moneyline?
The moneyline is a straight-up bet on who wins. The run line applies a 1.5-run spread — the favorite must win by two or more, or the underdog must lose by one or win outright. Because so many MLB games are decided by a single run, run-line results often diverge sharply from moneyline records.
Which teams are the strongest Over plays?
The Washington Nationals top the full-game Over board at 58-40 (plus 12.8 percent), with the Pittsburgh Pirates at 59-41 (plus 12.4 percent) and the Minnesota Twins third. Minnesota also leads the team-total Overs, so that lineup has cleared the number from both angles.
Which teams are the best Under plays?
The Philadelphia Phillies lead full-game Unders at 43-56 (plus 8.2 percent), with Detroit and St. Louis close behind. On team totals, the New York Mets are the strongest Under side at 41-62 (plus 14.8 percent), followed by San Francisco.
Do first-5-innings trends differ from full-game trends?
Yes. The first-5 markets isolate the starting pitchers and remove bullpen and late-inning scoring. Washington leads the F5 run line at 66-37 behind a 36-16 road mark, while San Diego and Toronto flip to strong F5 Under sides even though their full-game numbers look different.
How often are these trends updated?
These tables reflect the 2026 season through July 24 and are refreshed as new results come in. Records and ROI move daily during the season, so check back before locking in picks.
How is ROI calculated?
Every wager is treated as a flat 1-unit stake at the closing line. Units is the running profit or loss across all of a team's games; ROI is that unit total divided by the number of bets, expressed as a percentage. A positive ROI means backing that side blindly all season would have turned a profit.
How We Use These Trends
Season-long ROI tables are a starting point, not a finished play. A team covering the run line at a strong clip tells you the market has been slow to adjust to how it wins games — but the matchup, the starting pitcher, and the closing number still decide each night. We treat these rankings as a filter: they surface which sides the market has mispriced across a full season, and from there the daily picks come down to the specific game in front of us.
21+. Please play responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER. Odds and records reflect the 2026 MLB season through July 24, 2026 and are subject to change.
