2026 MLB Betting Trends: Best Run Line, Moneyline, and Totals Picks by Team

By: Alex MacMillan Updated 09/29/2026, 04:25 AM ET

The 2026 MLB betting board remains sharply divided entering the final stretch. Milwaukee has edged Tampa Bay for the top run-line ROI, while Tampa Bay still leads the moneyline profitability table and Washington remains the standout first-five run-line team. Since the September 27 update, San Diego has moved into the moneyline top three, Washington has reached 100 first-five run-line covers, and the strongest full-game and team-total leaders have largely held their positions.

Records and returns reflect the supplied 2026 MLB workbook updated September 29, 2026. Units assume flat 1-unit stakes at the closing line; ROI is the workbook's reported return on units staked. Historical trend performance is descriptive and does not guarantee future results.

  • Run line: Milwaukee Brewers 84-78, +16.60u, +9.0%.
  • Moneyline: Tampa Bay Rays 98-64, +21.40u, +10.2%.
  • Full-game Over: Chicago White Sox 92-68, +9.6%.
  • Team-total Over: Milwaukee Brewers 89-73, +4.5%.
  • First-five run line: Washington Nationals 100-62, +30.95u, +16.2%.

Run Line Picks (Against the Spread)

Milwaukee has moved into first on the run line at 84-78, +16.60u and +9.0%, narrowly ahead of Tampa Bay at 84-75 and +8.7%. The Yankees remain third. At the bottom, Seattle is still the clearest run-line fade at 60-101 and -20.8%, followed by Philadelphia and the Dodgers.

RankTeamATS RecordUnitsROI
1Milwaukee Brewers84-78+16.60u+9.0%
2Tampa Bay Rays84-75+17.10u+8.7%
3New York Yankees82-78+14.45u+7.9%
4San Diego Padres89-70+13.95u+6.6%
5Atlanta Braves81-80+8.40u+4.5%
6Washington Nationals91-69+8.20u+3.7%
7Chicago White Sox90-69+6.75u+3.0%
8Baltimore Orioles85-75+5.30u+2.5%
9Houston Astros84-78+0.10u+0.1%
10Arizona Diamondbacks84-73-0.35u-0.2%
11St. Louis Cardinals87-72-1.85u-0.8%
12Miami Marlins84-76-3.15u-1.5%
13Chicago Cubs76-84-3.65u-1.9%
14Boston Red Sox76-82-5.20u-2.6%
15Detroit Tigers77-79-6.55u-3.1%
16Pittsburgh Pirates78-80-7.00u-3.4%
17Minnesota Twins85-75-8.70u-3.8%
18Toronto Blue Jays79-82-9.60u-4.6%
19Colorado Rockies83-79-10.55u-5.2%
20Cleveland Guardians77-84-11.60u-5.6%
21Cincinnati Reds83-77-13.30u-6.0%
22Texas Rangers74-84-17.65u-8.4%
23New York Mets73-87-18.00u-8.9%
24San Francisco Giants79-81-21.10u-9.5%
25Athletics78-84-23.90u-11.2%
26Los Angeles Angels80-81-25.45u-11.3%
27Kansas City Royals75-81-27.65u-12.3%
28Los Angeles Dodgers71-90-25.60u-13.3%
29Philadelphia Phillies68-93-32.90u-17.1%
30Seattle Mariners60-101-39.30u-20.8%

Moneyline Picks (Straight Up)

Tampa Bay continues to lead the moneyline profitability board at 98-64, +21.40u and +10.2%, with Milwaukee second at 103-59 and +9.2%. San Diego has moved into third ahead of the White Sox. The Angels now have the weakest moneyline ROI at -15.7%, just below Seattle at -15.6%.

RankTeamRecordUnitsROI
1Tampa Bay Rays98-64+21.40u+10.2%
2Milwaukee Brewers103-59+22.10u+9.2%
3San Diego Padres91-71+14.85u+7.4%
4Chicago White Sox84-78+10.05u+5.6%
5Arizona Diamondbacks86-76+8.55u+4.5%
6Atlanta Braves94-68+6.95u+3.1%
7Washington Nationals77-85+3.20u+1.8%
8Miami Marlins80-82+0.30u+0.2%
9Cleveland Guardians85-77-1.45u-0.7%
10New York Yankees93-68-2.30u-1.0%
11St. Louis Cardinals77-85-2.75u-1.6%
12Chicago Cubs89-73-5.55u-2.5%
13Cincinnati Reds75-87-5.75u-3.2%
14Philadelphia Phillies88-74-7.85u-3.2%
15Boston Red Sox87-75-7.20u-3.4%
16Minnesota Twins77-85-7.75u-4.3%
17Pittsburgh Pirates82-80-8.80u-4.4%
18Los Angeles Dodgers100-62-14.80u-4.6%
19Baltimore Orioles79-82-9.20u-4.9%
20Houston Astros81-81-11.45u-5.8%
21Texas Rangers80-82-12.20u-6.3%
22Toronto Blue Jays79-83-15.10u-7.5%
23Detroit Tigers76-86-22.50u-11.2%
24Colorado Rockies58-104-19.05u-11.7%
25Kansas City Royals69-93-23.00u-12.8%
26Athletics64-98-25.30u-14.3%
27New York Mets74-88-28.55u-14.4%
28San Francisco Giants65-97-26.30u-14.8%
29Seattle Mariners76-86-34.15u-15.6%
30Los Angeles Angels62-100-27.00u-15.7%

Full-Game Totals Picks (Over / Under)

The full-game totals leaders are stable at the top. The White Sox remain first in Over ROI at +9.6%, Minnesota is close behind at +9.4%, and the Cubs are third at +8.9%. The Angels still lead the Under table at +5.1%, with Arizona second and Detroit moving into third.

Best Over Plays

RankTeamOver Record (O-U)ROI
1Chicago White Sox92-68+9.6%
2Minnesota Twins88-64+9.4%
3Chicago Cubs90-68+8.9%
4Seattle Mariners86-67+6.9%
5Texas Rangers85-68+6.0%
6Washington Nationals85-69+5.4%
7Athletics84-72+3.1%
8Cincinnati Reds84-74+1.3%
9Pittsburgh Pirates81-74-0.2%
10Miami Marlins82-75-0.5%
11Houston Astros79-72-0.6%
12Toronto Blue Jays81-77-1.9%
13Baltimore Orioles80-77-2.6%
14New York Mets76-73-2.9%
15San Francisco Giants75-73-3.1%
16Philadelphia Phillies76-78-5.4%
17San Diego Padres77-80-6.2%
18Colorado Rockies77-80-6.6%
19New York Yankees76-80-7.0%
20Atlanta Braves74-79-7.2%
21Cleveland Guardians77-83-7.5%
22St. Louis Cardinals75-80-7.6%
23Tampa Bay Rays74-82-8.9%
24Kansas City Royals73-84-10.6%
25Milwaukee Brewers73-84-10.6%
26Los Angeles Dodgers72-85-12.2%
27Detroit Tigers70-84-12.5%
28Arizona Diamondbacks71-85-12.6%
29Boston Red Sox72-86-13.0%
30Los Angeles Angels71-87-13.6%

Best Under Plays

RankTeamUnder Record (O-U)ROI
1Los Angeles Angels71-87+5.1%
2Arizona Diamondbacks71-85+4.2%
3Detroit Tigers70-84+4.1%
4Boston Red Sox72-86+3.9%
5Los Angeles Dodgers72-85+3.3%
6Kansas City Royals73-84+2.5%
7Milwaukee Brewers73-84+2.3%
8Tampa Bay Rays74-82+0.1%
9Atlanta Braves74-79-0.6%
10St. Louis Cardinals75-80-1.3%
11Cleveland Guardians77-83-1.5%
12New York Yankees76-80-1.9%
13Colorado Rockies77-80-2.0%
14San Diego Padres77-80-2.3%
15Philadelphia Phillies76-78-3.0%
16San Francisco Giants75-73-5.2%
17Baltimore Orioles80-77-5.7%
18New York Mets76-73-6.0%
19Toronto Blue Jays81-77-6.7%
20Houston Astros79-72-8.2%
21Pittsburgh Pirates81-74-8.3%
22Miami Marlins82-75-8.3%
23Cincinnati Reds84-74-10.1%
24Athletics84-72-11.2%
25Washington Nationals85-69-13.5%
26Texas Rangers85-68-13.8%
27Seattle Mariners86-67-15.3%
28Chicago Cubs90-68-17.0%
29Minnesota Twins88-64-18.5%
30Chicago White Sox92-68-18.8%

Team Total Picks (Over / Under)

Milwaukee remains the strongest season-long team-total Over profile at +4.5%, followed by Washington and the Cubs. On the Under side, the Dodgers have strengthened their lead to +10.7%, ahead of the Angels and Mets.

Best Team-Total Over Plays

RankTeamOver Record (O-U)ROI
1Milwaukee Brewers89-73+4.5%
2Washington Nationals89-73+3.6%
3Chicago Cubs90-72+3.5%
4Arizona Diamondbacks87-75+1.2%
5St. Louis Cardinals87-75+1.0%
6Chicago White Sox87-75+1.0%
7Minnesota Twins87-75+0.4%
8San Diego Padres86-76+0.1%
9Baltimore Orioles84-77-1.9%
10Atlanta Braves84-78-2.4%
11Pittsburgh Pirates84-78-3.0%
12Tampa Bay Rays84-78-3.3%
13Cleveland Guardians84-78-3.4%
14Detroit Tigers81-81-5.5%
15Colorado Rockies82-80-6.0%
16Boston Red Sox79-83-7.4%
17Miami Marlins79-83-7.5%
18Houston Astros77-85-9.3%
19Texas Rangers78-84-10.2%
20Philadelphia Phillies76-86-11.3%
21San Francisco Giants76-86-12.4%
22New York Yankees74-87-12.7%
23Toronto Blue Jays74-88-13.8%
24Seattle Mariners74-88-14.7%
25Athletics74-88-15.1%
26Kansas City Royals73-89-15.9%
27Cincinnati Reds73-89-16.1%
28Los Angeles Angels69-93-20.2%
29New York Mets70-92-20.3%
30Los Angeles Dodgers67-95-22.3%

Best Team-Total Under Plays

RankTeamUnder Record (O-U)ROI
1Los Angeles Dodgers67-95+10.7%
2Los Angeles Angels69-93+8.0%
3New York Mets70-92+7.7%
4Kansas City Royals73-89+4.1%
5Seattle Mariners74-88+3.2%
6Cincinnati Reds73-89+2.9%
7Toronto Blue Jays74-88+2.7%
8Athletics74-88+1.3%
9New York Yankees74-87+0.3%
10Philadelphia Phillies76-86+0.0%
11San Francisco Giants76-86-0.1%
12Texas Rangers78-84-1.7%
13Houston Astros77-85-2.6%
14Miami Marlins79-83-2.7%
15Boston Red Sox79-83-3.8%
16Detroit Tigers81-81-6.2%
17Colorado Rockies82-80-6.5%
18Cleveland Guardians84-78-9.0%
19Atlanta Braves84-78-9.4%
20Tampa Bay Rays84-78-9.4%
21Pittsburgh Pirates84-78-9.8%
22Baltimore Orioles84-77-10.2%
23Chicago White Sox87-75-12.4%
24Minnesota Twins87-75-12.7%
25St. Louis Cardinals87-75-12.7%
26Arizona Diamondbacks87-75-12.7%
27San Diego Padres86-76-13.1%
28Washington Nationals89-73-15.0%
29Milwaukee Brewers89-73-15.4%
30Chicago Cubs90-72-16.6%

First 5 Innings Run Line Picks

Washington remains the strongest first-five run-line team and has now reached 100 covers at 100-62, +30.95u and +16.2%. Tampa Bay remains second, St. Louis third and the White Sox fourth, while San Diego has moved into the top five.

RankTeamATS RecordUnitsROI
1Washington Nationals100-62+30.95u+16.2%
2Tampa Bay Rays94-68+16.30u+8.4%
3St. Louis Cardinals92-70+8.75u+4.5%
4Chicago White Sox90-72+7.70u+4.0%
5San Diego Padres90-72+5.95u+3.1%
6Milwaukee Brewers86-75+3.55u+1.9%
7Atlanta Braves86-76+2.35u+1.2%
8Los Angeles Angels88-74+2.30u+1.2%
9Detroit Tigers86-75+0.15u+0.1%
10Pittsburgh Pirates85-77-3.65u-1.9%
11Cleveland Guardians81-81-8.95u-4.7%
12Minnesota Twins82-80-9.90u-5.1%
13San Francisco Giants83-79-11.30u-5.7%
14Miami Marlins81-81-14.95u-7.7%
15New York Yankees78-83-15.90u-8.5%
16Baltimore Orioles78-83-16.20u-8.5%
17Cincinnati Reds80-82-17.70u-9.0%
18Chicago Cubs78-84-17.35u-9.1%
19Arizona Diamondbacks76-85-21.70u-11.2%
20Philadelphia Phillies76-86-21.80u-11.4%
21Los Angeles Dodgers77-85-22.05u-11.4%
22Kansas City Royals76-86-23.25u-11.9%
23Texas Rangers75-87-23.55u-12.3%
24Boston Red Sox74-88-24.40u-12.8%
25Toronto Blue Jays75-87-25.20u-13.2%
26Colorado Rockies72-89-27.40u-14.7%
27Houston Astros74-88-28.80u-14.8%
28Athletics72-90-29.60u-15.8%
29New York Mets72-90-31.20u-16.2%
30Seattle Mariners70-92-33.80u-17.9%

First 5 Innings Totals Picks (Over / Under)

Texas still leads first-five Over ROI at +9.7%, with Minnesota second at +6.2%. Toronto remains the clearest first-five Under profile at +8.3%, followed by San Diego, while the Yankees have moved into third.

Best First-5 Over Plays

RankTeamOver Record (O-U)ROI
1Texas Rangers92-65+9.7%
2Minnesota Twins88-66+6.2%
3Chicago White Sox86-70+2.5%
4Chicago Cubs87-73+1.9%
5Houston Astros82-68+1.8%
6Milwaukee Brewers84-72+0.6%
7Washington Nationals83-72+0.2%
8New York Mets83-75-1.7%
9Colorado Rockies80-73-2.2%
10Arizona Diamondbacks80-74-3.1%
11Los Angeles Angels80-75-3.1%
12Philadelphia Phillies80-76-3.3%
13Atlanta Braves80-76-3.7%
14Detroit Tigers78-75-3.8%
15Athletics79-77-4.1%
16Boston Red Sox78-75-4.3%
17Pittsburgh Pirates79-77-5.4%
18Baltimore Orioles74-73-5.4%
19San Francisco Giants77-78-6.7%
20Miami Marlins78-80-7.0%
21Cincinnati Reds77-79-7.1%
22Seattle Mariners74-77-8.1%
23Kansas City Royals77-82-8.5%
24Tampa Bay Rays73-80-9.7%
25Los Angeles Dodgers75-83-10.6%
26Cleveland Guardians70-80-11.7%
27St. Louis Cardinals69-85-16.0%
28New York Yankees67-85-16.8%
29San Diego Padres69-88-17.9%
30Toronto Blue Jays65-89-20.3%

Best First-5 Under Plays

RankTeamUnder Record (O-U)ROI
1Toronto Blue Jays65-89+8.3%
2San Diego Padres69-88+5.2%
3New York Yankees67-85+4.1%
4St. Louis Cardinals69-85+3.0%
5Cleveland Guardians70-80+0.3%
6Los Angeles Dodgers75-83-1.1%
7Tampa Bay Rays73-80-2.1%
8Kansas City Royals77-82-2.7%
9Seattle Mariners74-77-3.8%
10San Francisco Giants77-78-4.7%
11Cincinnati Reds77-79-5.0%
12Miami Marlins78-80-5.2%
13Baltimore Orioles74-73-5.9%
14Athletics79-77-7.1%
15Pittsburgh Pirates79-77-7.7%
16Boston Red Sox78-75-7.8%
17Atlanta Braves80-76-7.8%
18Detroit Tigers78-75-8.1%
19Los Angeles Angels80-75-8.4%
20Arizona Diamondbacks80-74-9.0%
21Philadelphia Phillies80-76-9.2%
22Colorado Rockies80-73-9.6%
23New York Mets83-75-11.5%
24Washington Nationals83-72-12.5%
25Milwaukee Brewers84-72-12.7%
26Houston Astros82-68-13.5%
27Chicago White Sox86-70-14.9%
28Chicago Cubs87-73-15.1%
29Minnesota Twins88-66-18.4%
30Texas Rangers92-65-21.8%
  • Seattle run line: 60-101, -39.30u, -20.8%.
  • Philadelphia run line: 68-93, -32.90u, -17.1%.
  • Los Angeles Angels moneyline: 62-100, -27.00u, -15.7%.
  • Seattle moneyline: 76-86, -34.15u, -15.6%.

Methodology

Tables are ranked by the relevant ROI field from the supplied workbook. Side markets use the BOTH season record, Units and ROI. Over and Under tables are ranked separately by the workbook's Over ROI and Under ROI. Pushes remain part of the source record even when the compact table displays the O-U split. Larger samples generally deserve more attention than small ones, but these are descriptive betting records rather than a predictive model.

Frequently Asked Questions

Which MLB team has the best run line trend in 2026?

Milwaukee ranks first in the current workbook at 84-78 with +16.60u and +9.0%, narrowly ahead of Tampa Bay.

Which teams should bettors fade right now?

Seattle remains the clearest negative run-line profile at -20.8%, with Philadelphia and the Dodgers also near the bottom. On the moneyline, the Angels rank last at -15.7%, with Seattle, San Francisco and the Mets also deep in negative territory.

What is the difference between the run line and the moneyline?

The run line applies a run spread, typically plus or minus 1.5 runs. The moneyline grades only whether the team wins the game outright.

Which teams are the strongest Over plays?

The White Sox lead full-game Over ROI at +9.6%, while Milwaukee leads team-total Over ROI at +4.5%.

Which teams are the best Under plays?

The Angels lead the full-game Under table at +5.1%. The Dodgers lead the team-total Under table at +10.7%.

Yes. First-five markets isolate the opening five innings and can produce a different leaderboard from full-game sides and totals. Washington's first-five run-line performance is the clearest example in the current workbook.

This page is refreshed when a new current betting-stat workbook is supplied and validated.

How is ROI calculated?

ROI is the workbook's reported return on the units staked for that market. This page does not redesign or recalculate the source methodology.

Season-long records are one input into our picks, parlays and best bets. For current matchup analysis, see our MLB Picks.

21+. Please play responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER. Odds and records reflect the supplied 2026 MLB workbook updated September 29, 2026 and are subject to change.

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