Air Force at Belmont Picks and Prediction for Monday, November 3, 2025
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The Air Force Falcons (Mountain West) travel to Nashville to take on the Belmont Bruins at the Curb Event Center on Monday, November 3, 2025. Tip-off is scheduled for 7:00 PM ET / 6:00 PM CT. Get in on the action with our free college basketball picks.
Air Force Falcons Analysis
Air Force is coming off a very difficult 2024-25 season (4-28 overall, 1-19 in MWC). Their offensive and defensive efficiency metrics were among the worst in Division I: scoring just ~61.9 points per game and allowing ~73.7 points per game.
Key Player Stats & Team Metrics
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The leading returning scorer: Ethan Taylor averaged 13.9 points, 5.4 rebounds and 3.5 assists per game last season for Air Force.
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The Falcons’ offensive output ranked 362nd out of 364 in points per game at 61.9 PPG.
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Defensively, their defensive rating (DRtg) was 113.0, placing them near the bottom in terms of efficiency.
Strengths:
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Air Force may try to lean on disciplined, slower-tempo offense typical of service academies to limit possessions.
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Opportunity for the program to establish identity early under new momentum.
Weaknesses:
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Significant talent and efficiency gap versus Belmont.
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Last season’s offensive and defensive struggles suggest uphill climb in non-conference.
Belmont Bruins Analysis
Belmont enters the 2025-26 season off a 22-11 record in 2024-25 (13-7 in the Missouri Valley Conference). Their offense was efficient: averaged 79.3 points per game and shot 46.5% from the field and 38.3% on three-pointers. They’re positioned as a strong mid-major program and should open with home-court advantage confidence.
Key Player Stats & Team Metrics
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The Bruins shot 38.3% from three last season (347-of-905) and attempted 10.5 threes per game.
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Their pace and efficiency: Offensive rating around 112.2, Defensive rating 108.4 in 2024-25.
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A noteworthy newcomer: Graydon Lemke (6-10 forward, redshirt freshman) averaged 17.4 points and 5.0 rebounds per game as a senior in high school, and now joins the Bruins.
Strengths:
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Efficient offense, strong three-point shooting, solid home venue.
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Depth and continuity from a successful prior season.
Weaknesses:
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Defense allowed 76.6 points per game last season, so while offense was solid, they were not elite on that end.
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Opening night non-conference matchups can sometimes trap mid-majors if opponent plays with lesser expectations, but here Belmont is the clear favorite.
Standout Players and Key Notes
Air Force:
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Ethan Taylor: Leading returning scorer—will need to carry the offensive load.
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The Falcons must improve significantly on both ends to compete at this level.
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The program will look for early signs of growth to build into the season.
Belmont:
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Graydon Lemke: High-school scoring star adding to Belmont’s roster—could provide a spark.
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Senior leadership returning from a 22-win season: continuity on offense gives them an edge.
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Emphasis likely on fast offense and three-point shooting given their prior success from beyond the arc.
Belmont vs Air Force Prediction Reasoning
This game heavily favors Belmont. The Bruins have the talent, efficiency, and home-court advantage. Air Force’s 2024-25 season reflected deep issues on both ends of the floor. Unless the Falcons show a major offseason leap, the matchup suggests Belmont controlling the game. The Bruin’s ability to shoot threes, push tempo, and defend moderately well gives them comfort margin. Air Force may compete early, but the talent gap will likely manifest.
Final Score Projection: Belmont 82, Air Force 64
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Best Picks
- Belmont -15.5
- Over 143.5 total points
