Air Force Falcons vs Nevada Wolf Pack Picks and Predictions for Wednesday March 11 2026
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The Air Force Falcons and Nevada Wolf Pack meet in the Mountain West Championship 1st Round on Wednesday at the Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas, Nevada. Tipoff is scheduled for 5:30 PM ET with the game airing on MWN. Both teams enter the conference tournament with very different momentum, as Nevada finished the regular season strong while Air Force struggled throughout the year. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Be sure to check out our free college basketball picks for more betting insight and daily selections.
Air Force Hoping to Pull Off a Tournament Surprise
The Air Force Falcons enter the Mountain West Tournament with a 3-28 overall record and have struggled away from home all season. Air Force has recently lost to Nevada, GCU, Wyoming, San Jose State, and UNLV, which reflects the difficult stretch the Falcons have faced late in the year.
The Falcons average 62.1 points per game while allowing 79.9 points per contest, giving them one of the larger scoring gaps in the conference. Air Force shoots 43% from the field, averages 29.0 rebounds per game, and produces 12.3 assists per contest. Defensively, the Falcons record 2.4 blocks and 5.5 steals per game, but their defense has struggled to contain opponents consistently.
One of the main challenges for Air Force entering this matchup is keeping pace offensively. The Falcons score more than 13 points per game fewer than Nevada and have struggled to generate consistent scoring runs. If Air Force hopes to stay competitive, it will need to slow the tempo and limit second-chance opportunities.
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Nevada Bringing Strong Form into the Tournament
The Nevada Wolf Pack come into the conference tournament with a 20-11 overall record and have been far more consistent throughout the season. Nevada has recently won over Air Force, New Mexico, and Utah State while recently losing to Wyoming and UNLV. That recent stretch still shows a team capable of competing with the top teams in the conference.
Nevada averages 75.9 points per game while allowing 71.9 points per contest. The Wolf Pack shoot 44% from the field, average 35.9 rebounds per game, and produce 14.2 assists per contest. Defensively, Nevada contributes 3.8 blocks and 6.5 steals per game, giving them a solid defensive presence.
Nevada’s biggest advantage in this matchup is its overall balance on both ends of the floor. The Wolf Pack score efficiently while also maintaining one of the better defensive profiles in the conference. Nevada already defeated Air Force recently by a comfortable margin, and if the Wolf Pack continue to control the glass and maintain offensive efficiency, they should be in a strong position to advance.
Air Force Falcons vs Nevada Wolf Pack Pick
Air Force Falcons vs Nevada Wolf Pack Pick
- Pick: Nevada Wolf Pack Moneyline
Nevada has the stronger record, the better offensive production, and already handled Air Force comfortably in their recent meeting. The Wolf Pack also have a significant advantage in rebounding and defensive efficiency. With Air Force struggling to generate consistent scoring, Nevada should be able to control the pace and pull away.
Air Force Falcons vs Nevada Wolf Pack Total Pick
- Pick: Under if the total is set at 140.5
I like the under in this matchup because Air Force struggles offensively and averages just over 62 points per game. Nevada’s defense is capable of slowing the Falcons down, which could limit the overall scoring pace. If Nevada controls tempo and plays through its half-court offense, this game could stay below the projected total.
Final Score Prediction: Nevada Wolf Pack 74, Air Force Falcons 60
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