Alabama State vs Missouri Picks & Prediction for Thursday, December 11, 2025

By: Kim Smith Published 12/11/2025, 12:10 AM ET

Missouri looks to bounce back at home after two straight losses as they welcome Alabama State to Mizzou Arena. The Tigers enter as massive favorites, and bettors can compare deeper matchup data and projections on our free college basketball picks page, which updates daily with new NCAAB predictions.

Alabama State Hornets Preview

Alabama State enters at 3–6 and has struggled significantly on the road (1–5 away). The Hornets can score in bursts — averaging 79.4 points per game — but defensive breakdowns continue to bury them. Opponents are putting up 81.4 points per contest against ASU, and their issues with defending ball screens and rotations have been especially problematic versus high-major opponents.

Akeem Anderson leads the Hornets with 17.9 PPG, but he is doing it on just 36.6% shooting, a sign that Alabama State often relies on contested looks rather than efficient offensive flow. The supporting cast has shown flashes, yet their turnover rate and inability to sustain defensive pressure have cost them in tight matchups.

To compete in Columbia, the Hornets would need a near-perfect shooting night while somehow slowing down Missouri’s transition attack — something no opponent has managed in Mizzou Arena this season.

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Missouri Tigers Preview

Missouri sits at 8–2 and a dominant 7–0 at home, making Columbia one of the toughest environments in college basketball right now. Despite losses to Kansas and Notre Dame, the Tigers still boast one of the nation’s most explosive scoring offenses, averaging 87.4 points per game on 52% shooting.

Matt Mitchell continues to shine, putting up 18.4 PPG while finishing efficiently around the rim and from mid-range. Missouri’s depth is also a problem for opponents — multiple players routinely contribute double figures, and their ball movement (15.8 assists per game) creates high-percentage opportunities.

Defensively, Missouri has tightened up early in games, allowing them to force teams into an uphill climb. With Alabama State giving up heavy scoring totals all year, the Tigers should find success early and often.

Matchup Breakdown

This is a major step up for Alabama State, who has already struggled against teams with far less offensive firepower than Missouri.

Key matchup advantages for Missouri include:

Efficiency: Missouri shoots 52% from the floor; Alabama State gives up 81.4 PPG.
Depth & Pace: Missouri’s bench can sustain pressure for 40 minutes.
Home Dominance: Mizzou Arena has been a fortress this season.

Unless Missouri has a disastrous night from deep, the Hornets are unlikely to keep this within striking distance. Betting on sports and on Alabama State is easy, but even easier if you use the best sportsbooks. Make sure you know about how the fans are looking on prediction markets for Missouri with the social sportsbooks. Getting the most out of your bets on Alabama State vs Missouri can be done by using the Fanatics Sportsbook promo code.

Final Score Prediction

Missouri 95, Alabama State 68

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