Arizona State Sun Devils vs Iowa State Cyclones Picks and Predictions for Wednesday March 11 2026
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The Arizona State Sun Devils and Iowa State Cyclones meet in the Phillips 66 Big 12 Tournament Second Round on Wednesday, March 11, 2026, at T-Mobile Center in Kansas City, Missouri. Tip-off is scheduled for 12:30 PM ET, and the game will be broadcast on ESPN. According to DraftKings, Iowa State enters as an 11.5-point favorite with the total set at 147.5. Be sure to check out our free college basketball picks for more predictions and betting insights throughout the tournament.
Arizona State Building Momentum After Opening-Round Win
The Arizona State Sun Devils enter the second round with a 17-15 overall record and a 7-11 mark in Big 12 play. They advanced in the tournament after recently winning over Baylor 83-79 in the first round. In their last five games, Arizona State has recently won over Baylor, Kansas, and Utah, while they have recently lost to Iowa State and TCU.
Arizona State averages 77.2 points per game while allowing 77.9 points per contest this season. The Sun Devils shoot 45% from the field and average 33.3 rebounds and 14.0 assists per game, showing a balanced offensive approach. Defensively they contribute 7.0 steals and 4.7 blocks per game, indicating their ability to generate defensive pressure and protect the rim when needed.
In the first-round win over Baylor, Arizona State displayed strong shooting efficiency, hitting 57% from the field while holding off a late push from the Bears. Anthony Johnson led the Sun Devils with 19 points, while Santiago Trouet pulled down 9 rebounds to help anchor the interior. Arizona State’s offensive efficiency and ability to convert inside will be important again as they face a top defensive team in Iowa State on a short turnaround.
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Iowa State Ready After First-Round Bye
The Iowa State Cyclones enter the Big 12 Tournament with a 25-6 overall record and a 12-6 conference mark, earning a first-round bye into the second round. In their last five games, Iowa State has recently won over Arizona State and Utah, while they have recently lost to Arizona, Texas Tech, and BYU.
Iowa State has been one of the most well-rounded teams in the conference this season. The Cyclones average 81.8 points per game while allowing just 65.7 points, demonstrating strong defensive consistency. They shoot 49% from the field and average 35.5 rebounds and 17.4 assists per game, showing strong ball movement and offensive efficiency. Defensively they also record 9.0 steals and 2.8 blocks per game, reflecting their aggressive defensive identity.
In their most recent matchup, Iowa State recently won over Arizona State 86-65, delivering a dominant second-half performance. Joshua Jefferson led the Cyclones with 16 points and also grabbed 7 rebounds, helping Iowa State control the interior and limit Arizona State’s offensive rhythm. The Cyclones also forced 23 turnovers in that game, showcasing the defensive pressure that has been a hallmark of their season.
Arizona State Sun Devils vs Iowa State Cyclones Pick
Arizona State Sun Devils vs Iowa State Cyclones Spread Pick
- Pick: Iowa State Cyclones -11.5
Iowa State enters this matchup with the advantage of rest and a recent convincing victory over Arizona State just days ago. The Cyclones have been one of the best defensive teams in the Big 12, allowing just 65.7 points per game while forcing turnovers at a high rate. Arizona State played well in the first round but now faces a quick turnaround against a deeper and more balanced Iowa State squad. With the Cyclones already showing they can disrupt Arizona State’s offense, I expect Iowa State to control the tempo and cover the spread.
Arizona State Sun Devils vs Iowa State Cyclones Total Pick
- Pick: Under 147.5
I like the under in this matchup because Iowa State’s defense tends to slow games down and limit opponents’ scoring opportunities. The Cyclones forced 23 turnovers in the previous meeting and held Arizona State to just 65 points, showing their ability to control the pace and defensive intensity. While Arizona State just had a strong offensive performance in the first round, Iowa State’s defensive pressure and rebounding edge should keep this game from becoming a shootout.
Final Score Prediction: Iowa State 78, Arizona State 64
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