Bellarmine Knights vs Kentucky Wildcats Picks and Prediction for Tuesday December 23 2025
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The Bellarmine Knights head to Lexington to take on the Kentucky Wildcats on Tuesday, December 23, 2025 at 1:00 PM ET, with the game airing on SECN+. Kentucky comes in at 8-4 and riding a three-game win streak, while Bellarmine is 5-6 and trying to build on a recent win of its own. The betting board you provided has Kentucky laying a massive number (around -35.5) with a total of 153.5, which makes this one of those “how long does the favourite keep the foot down?” matchups. Before you lock anything in, be sure to check out our other free college basketball picks as well.
Game Information
This matchup tips at 1:00 PM inside Rupp Arena in Lexington, Kentucky. The odds shown list Bellarmine +35.5 / Kentucky -35.5, with the total at 153.5. ESPN’s matchup predictor is as lopsided as you’ll ever see it (99% Kentucky), which lines up with the spread being inflated into “blowout territory.”
Bellarmine Knights Team Breakdown
Bellarmine’s profile is fascinating for a game where they’re catching 35.5 points, because the Knights can actually score. They’re putting up 77.7 PPG while allowing 77.2 PPG, and they shoot a very strong 51% from the field. That offensive efficiency is the one thing that gives Bellarmine a pathway to staying competitive relative to the number—even if they aren’t realistically expected to win the game.
The warning sign is that Bellarmine doesn’t have much margin for error against a power opponent in a hostile arena. Their rebounding number (28.5) is modest, and against a team that rebounds like Kentucky (41.2), extra possessions could pile up quickly. Bellarmine’s last five results show a team that can play solid basketball (a 79-64 win over Chattanooga, competitive loss to Northern Kentucky), but also a team that can get stretched when the opponent keeps scoring.
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Bellarmine Key Player
Bellarmine’s engine is Jack Karasinski (#32), who is averaging 20.8 PPG on a blistering 57.7% from the floor, while hitting 75.9% at the line. In a game like this, his efficiency is important for two reasons: (1) if Bellarmine is going to score enough to threaten the backdoor cover, it likely starts with his production, and (2) efficient scoring helps them avoid the long empty stretches that allow a favourite to turn a 16-point lead into a 32-point lead in about five minutes.
Bellarmine Key Injuries
No Bellarmine injuries were included in the information you provided.
Kentucky Wildcats Team Breakdown
Kentucky enters with the more complete profile and the higher “ceiling,” and the team stats make that pretty clear. The Wildcats score 83.8 PPG and allow only 66.3 PPG, which is exactly the kind of defensive number that produces non-competitive games against smaller opponents. Kentucky also rebounds at a major level (41.2) and moves the ball well (17.8 assists), meaning they’re not reliant on one player going nuclear to separate—this is a team that can gradually widen the gap by winning possessions, winning the glass, and getting quality shots.
Recent form suggests Kentucky is playing with confidence. Over their last five, they’ve beaten St. John’s 78-66, Indiana 72-60, and North Carolina Central 103-67. That 103-point outing matters when you’re handicapping a huge spread: it shows Kentucky is capable of pushing the pace and continuing to score even when the game is already decided, which is often the difference between winning comfortably and covering an enormous number.
Kentucky Key Player
Kentucky’s listed season leader is Otega Oweh (#00) at 14.5 PPG with 46.8% FG and 81.5% FT. In a game where Kentucky is expected to be in control, having a reliable free-throw shooter matters more than people think. Blowouts get messy late—bench minutes, fouling, quick possessions—and efficient free throws are one way the favourite keeps the margin from wobbling.
Kentucky Key Injuries
No Kentucky injuries were included in the information you provided.
Bellarmine vs Kentucky Pick and Prediction
Pick Against the Spread: Bellarmine +35.5
This is the kind of spread that forces you to handicap game script more than “who’s better.” Kentucky is better—nearly every indicator screams it. They defend at 66.3 allowed, rebound at 41.2, and have won three straight. Bellarmine allows 77.2, rebounds at 28.5, and is stepping into Rupp Arena as a clear underdog.
So why even consider the dog? Because +35.5 is basically asking: Can Bellarmine avoid getting doubled up? And the Knights’ offensive profile gives them a realistic argument. They shoot 51% as a team and score 77.7 PPG, which means they can generate points without living on threes or prayer shots. If Bellarmine can merely play “competent offence” for most of the afternoon, they can lose by 28–34 and still cash.
The biggest reason I lean toward Bellarmine plus the points is that Kentucky’s own results show two different styles: they can smash teams (like 103-67), but they’ve also played games in the 70s (like 72-60 vs Indiana, 78-66 vs St. John’s). When a favourite plays in that slower, more controlled scoring band—even while winning comfortably—it becomes hard to cover spreads north of 30 unless the underdog completely collapses offensively.
However, you absolutely have to respect the risk here: Kentucky’s rebounding edge (41.2 vs 28.5) can create a possession avalanche. If Kentucky starts stacking second-chance points and Bellarmine is forced into quick shots, the margin can snowball into the 40s.
Still, given Bellarmine’s strong shooting (51%) and a true alpha scorer in Karasinski (20.8 PPG, 57.7% FG), the more reasonable expectation is that Bellarmine gets enough offence to keep this from becoming a historic runaway. Betting on sports and on Kentucky is easy, but even easier if you use the best sportsbooks. Make sure you know about how the fans are looking on prediction markets for Bellarmine with the Novig promo code. Make sure when you place your bet on Bellarmine vs Kentucky you are using the BetMGM bonus code.
ATS Pick: Bellarmine +35.5
Pick on the Total: Under 153.5
The total at 153.5 is interesting because Kentucky’s defence is legitimately stingy (66.3 allowed), and Bellarmine’s defence is not (77.2 allowed). That creates two different narratives:
- Over case: Kentucky scores freely, Bellarmine chips in enough because they shoot 51%, and you get something like 92-68 (160).
- Under case: Kentucky controls the game with defence, Bellarmine struggles to create easy looks, and the pace settles into a comfortable “win-by-25-to-35” script that lands in the mid-to-high 140s.
For this matchup, I lean Under 153.5 because the safest assumption is Kentucky dictates terms defensively. Bellarmine can shoot, yes—but Kentucky allowing 66.3 PPG suggests they routinely drag opponents below their usual scoring output. And even if Kentucky scores in the mid-to-high 80s, Bellarmine would still need to get well into the 60s to threaten this number. That’s possible, but it’s not guaranteed against a defence that’s been holding opponents down all season.
A very “plausible” final range based on the stats you provided is Kentucky around 85–90 and Bellarmine around 60–65. That puts you in the 145–155 window—right on the number—so you’re betting the most likely script is Kentucky’s defence winning out more than Bellarmine’s efficiency forcing a shootout.
Total Pick: Under 153.5
Final Score Prediction
Kentucky 88, Bellarmine 60 — Kentucky wins comfortably, Bellarmine covers +35.5, and the game lands Under 153.5 (total 148).
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