Boise State Broncos vs Nevada Wolf Pack Picks & Predictions for Saturday December 20 2025
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The Boise State Broncos and Nevada Wolf Pack open Mountain West play with a high-quality conference showdown on Saturday, December 20, 2025, tipping off at 10:00 PM ET from Lawlor Events Center in Reno, Nevada. This late-night matchup will be televised on MWN and features two evenly matched teams that enter league play with identical 8–3 records. For more analysis across the college basketball slate, be sure to check out free college basketball picks.
Boise State Broncos Preview: Defense-First and Rolling Into Conference Play
Boise State comes into this game at 8–3 overall and riding a four-game winning streak, most recently edging Saint Mary’s 68–67. The Broncos have been steady rather than flashy, winning with discipline, defense, and rebounding. They’ve also shown they can win close games, which matters in a hostile conference road environment.
From a statistical standpoint, Boise State averages 78.0 points per game while allowing just 69.5, one of the stronger defensive marks in the Mountain West. The Broncos shoot 45% from the field, rebound well at 38.3 per game, and play at a controlled pace that limits mistakes. Their lower steal numbers (4.7 per game) reflect a defense built more on positioning than gambling.
Offensively, Drew Fielder leads the way with 14.4 PPG while shooting an efficient 58.3% from the floor. Fielder’s ability to score inside and finish possessions is critical for a Boise State team that prefers half-court execution over tempo.
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Nevada Wolf Pack Preview: Balanced and Tough at Lawlor Events Center
Nevada also enters conference play at 8–3, riding its own four-game winning streak after a 78–75 win over Duquesne. The Wolf Pack have quietly put together a strong non-conference résumé and now return home, where Lawlor Events Center has historically been a difficult venue for visitors.
Nevada averages 77.4 points per game while allowing 72.9, shooting 43% from the field. They rebound nearly as well as Boise State (37.8 per game) and generate slightly more assists (14.4 per game), showing better ball movement in the half court. Defensively, Nevada protects the rim effectively with 4.3 blocks per game, giving them an interior presence Boise State must account for.
The offensive leader is Corey Camper Jr., who averages 15.9 PPG while shooting 44.2% from the floor and 81.4% at the free-throw line. Camper’s ability to create his own shot late in possessions gives Nevada a go-to option in tight games.
Key Points To Watch For
- Conference Opener Intensity: Both teams are undefeated in Mountain West play
- Winning Streaks: Each enters on a 4-game win streak
- Defense vs Defense: Both allow under 73 PPG
- Home Court: Nevada’s edge at Lawlor Events Center
- Rebounding Battle: Nearly identical rebounding numbers
Boise State vs Nevada Pick
Best Bet: Under the Game Total I’m strongest on the under in this matchup. Both teams prefer controlled possessions, defend the paint well, and rank similarly in scoring output. Boise State’s defensive efficiency combined with Nevada’s tendency to grind out wins at home points to a lower-tempo conference opener where every possession is valued. Check out all the sportsbook promos to see if you are getting a great deal on your bets on Boise State. Make sure you know about how the fans are looking on prediction markets for Nevada with the Kickr promo code. Make sure when you place your bet on Nevada vs Boise State you are using the BetMGM bonus code.
Lean Pick: Nevada Wolf Pack Moneyline I lean slightly toward Nevada to win outright. At home, with comparable metrics across the board and a reliable late-game scorer in Camper Jr., Nevada has a small but meaningful edge. Boise State can absolutely compete here, but Lawlor Events Center often tips close games in Nevada’s favor.
This profiles as a tight, physical Mountain West battle that likely comes down to execution in the final five minutes.
Final Score Prediction
Nevada 71, Boise State 68
A defensive, possession-by-possession game where Nevada does just enough at home to secure the conference-opening win.
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