Cincinnati Bearcats vs UCF Knights Picks and Predictions for Wednesday March 11 2026
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The Cincinnati Bearcats and UCF Knights meet in the Phillips 66 Big 12 Tournament Second Round on Wednesday, March 11, 2026, at T-Mobile Center in Kansas City, Missouri. Tip-off is scheduled for 3:00 PM ET, and the game will be broadcast on ESPNU. Cincinnati enters the matchup as a 2.5-point favorite with a total set at 147.5. Be sure to check out our free college basketball picks for additional insights and predictions throughout the tournament.
Cincinnati Carrying Momentum from First Round Win
The Cincinnati Bearcats enter the second round with an 18-14 overall record and a 9-9 mark in Big 12 play. They advanced in the tournament after recently winning over Utah 73-66 in the opening round. Over their last five games, Cincinnati has recently won over Utah, BYU, and Oklahoma State, while they have recently lost to TCU and Texas Tech.
Cincinnati averages 73.4 points per game while allowing 67.6 points per contest this season. The Bearcats shoot 43% from the field and average 36.9 rebounds and 16.7 assists per game, showing strong ball movement and balanced scoring. On the defensive end they contribute 6.5 steals and 4.1 blocks per game, allowing them to disrupt opponents while protecting the rim.
In their first-round victory over Utah, Cincinnati displayed strong rebounding and defensive intensity. Jalen Celestine led the team with 19 points, while Baba Miller controlled the glass with 14 rebounds and also contributed six assists. The Bearcats also won the rebounding battle 40-37 and forced Utah into difficult shooting stretches, which could be an important factor again as they face a high-scoring UCF offense on a quick turnaround.
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UCF Returns from Bye Looking to Reset
The UCF Knights come into this matchup with a 20-10 overall record and a 9-9 record in Big 12 play, earning a first-round bye in the tournament. In their last five games, UCF has recently won over BYU and Utah, while they have recently lost to West Virginia, Oklahoma State, and Baylor.
The Knights have been one of the higher-scoring teams in the conference this season. UCF averages 82.2 points per game while allowing 78.8 points, shooting 47% from the field. They also average 36.8 rebounds and 16.1 assists per game, demonstrating a balanced offensive attack. Defensively the Knights record 5.7 steals and 3.0 blocks per contest, although their fast pace can sometimes leave them vulnerable defensively.
In their most recent game, UCF recently lost to West Virginia 77-62, struggling offensively while shooting just 38% from the field and 19% from three-point range. Themus Fulks led the Knights with 16 points, while Jordan Burks grabbed 9 rebounds in the loss. UCF did win the rebounding battle 41-33, showing they can control the glass, but their shooting efficiency will need to improve if they want to keep pace with Cincinnati’s defensive pressure in this tournament matchup.
Cincinnati Bearcats vs UCF Knights Pick
Cincinnati Bearcats vs UCF Knights Spread Pick
- Pick: Cincinnati Bearcats -2.5
Cincinnati enters this matchup with solid momentum after their opening-round win and has been one of the better defensive teams in the Big 12 this season. The Bearcats have a strong rebounding presence and limit opponents to under 68 points per game, which could help slow down UCF’s high-paced offense. UCF’s recent shooting struggles against West Virginia are also concerning, and Cincinnati’s defensive pressure should create similar challenges. With the Bearcats already adjusted to the tournament environment and playing well defensively, I like Cincinnati to cover the small number.
Cincinnati Bearcats vs UCF Knights Total Pick
- Pick: Under 147.5
I like the under in this matchup because Cincinnati tends to control tempo and relies heavily on defense and rebounding. Their games average far fewer points than UCF’s, and I expect the Bearcats to dictate a slower pace in this tournament setting. UCF struggled shooting in their most recent game and could face similar issues against Cincinnati’s defensive front. If the Bearcats successfully slow the tempo and control the boards, this game should land below the posted total.
Final Score Prediction: Cincinnati 72, UCF 68
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