Colorado Buffaloes at Baylor Bears, Picks and Prediction for Wednesday, February 4, 2026
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The Colorado Buffaloes (13-9, 3-6 Big 12) make the rare trip to Waco, TX to face the Baylor Bears (12-9, 2-7 Big 12) on Wednesday, February 4, 2026 at Foster Pavilion. Get in on the action with our free NCAAB picks.
Colorado Buffaloes Analysis
Colorado has been more competitive this year than in recent seasons, trending upward after a difficult start in Big 12 play. The Buffaloes average 81.9 points per game, shooting 47.6% from the field and 35.6% from three, with a modest rebounding edge. Colorado’s assists (15.7 APG) and ball movement highlight an offense that looks to share scoring opportunities rather than rely on one star.
Team Overview and Metrics
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PPG: 81.9
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FG%: .476
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3P%: .356
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TRB: 32.1 RPG
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APG: 15.7
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TOV: 9.4
Strengths
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Balanced scoring: Colorado is effective at sharing the ball and getting multiple players involved each night.
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Recent defensive effort: In the TCU win, the Buffaloes forced turnovers and held a stout defensive effort in the second half.
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Improved guard play: Isaiah Johnson (16.5 PPG) has been a consistent scorer and distributor.
Weaknesses
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Conference inconsistency: Colorado has been up and down in Big 12 play, with a 3-6 mark reflecting uneven defensive stretches.
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Rebounding: The Buffaloes don’t dominate the glass, which can allow extra possessions for physical frontcourts.
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Road pressure: Winning away from Boulder remains a challenge in hostile environments.
Baylor Bears Analysis
Baylor is navigating a murky Big 12 season but has shown flashes of offensive balance. The Bears average about 84.0 points per game, shoot 48.1% from the field, and crash the offensive glass effectively with roughly 13 offensive rebounds per game — one of the better marks in the conference. Defensively, Baylor allows 75.4 points per game and produces around 4.7 blocks per contest, anchoring its paint presence.
Team Overview and Metrics
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PPG: 84.0
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FG%: .481
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3P%: .357
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TRB: 36.6 RPG
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APG: 16.2
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TOV: 11.6
Strengths
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Scoring punch: Cameron Carr (19.4 PPG) leads a Bears offense capable of high efficiency.
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Rebounding advantage: Baylor’s rebounding margin often fuels second-chance points.
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Home court: Playing in Waco tends to boost Baylor’s energy and execution.
Weaknesses
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Big 12 struggles: A 2-7 conference record reflects inconsistency against quality opponents.
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Turnovers: Baylor averages more turnovers than it forces, which can lead to transition opportunities for opponents.
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Defensive lapses: Allowing 75 points per game highlights defensive issues that tougher teams can exploit.
Standout Players and Key Matchups
Colorado
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Isaiah Johnson (G): Leading scorer and facilitator, averaging 16.5 PPG.
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Bangot Dak (F): Contributes rebounding and high-percentage scoring around the rim.
Baylor
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Cameron Carr (G): Primary offensive trigger (19.4 PPG).
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Tounde Yessoufou (F): Secondary scorer and turnover creator.
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Obi Agbim (G): Floor spacing and scoring spurts.
Colorado vs Baylor Prediction Reasoning
This Big 12 battle should be competitive throughout, but Baylor’s scoring efficiency and rebounding edge at home give the Bears a slight advantage. Colorado’s recent confidence from its big win over TCU and balanced scoring makes it dangerous, yet Baylor’s ability to generate extra possessions and execute in half-court sets likely gives it control late.
Expect a tight first half, with Baylor’s depth and offensive rebounding creating separation down the stretch.
Final Score Projection: Baylor 82, Colorado 76
Best Picks
- Colorado +6.5
- Under 158.5 total points
How To Bet This Matchup
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