Colorado State Rams vs San Diego State Aztecs Picks and Predictions for Thursday March 12 2026
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The Colorado State Rams and San Diego State Aztecs meet in the Mountain West Championship Quarterfinal on Thursday, March 12, 2026, at the Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas, Nevada. Tip-off is scheduled for 9:00 PM ET with television coverage on CBSSN. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Be sure to check out our free college basketball picks for more daily predictions and betting insights.
Rams Advance After Grinding Out Opening Round Win
The Colorado State Rams enter this matchup with a 21-11 overall record and an 11-9 mark in Mountain West play this season. Colorado State advanced to the quarterfinals of the Mountain West Championship after defeating Fresno State 67-63 in the first round. Over their last five games, the Rams have recently won over Fresno State twice, New Mexico, and San Jose State, while also recently losing to Boise State.
Colorado State averages 76.8 points per game while allowing 71.1 points per game this season. The Rams shoot an efficient 50% from the field, collect 32.1 rebounds per game, and average 16.0 assists per contest. Defensively, Colorado State contributes 2.1 blocks and 5.3 steals per game, often relying on offensive efficiency and ball movement to control the pace.
In their opening-round victory over Fresno State, Jase Butler led Colorado State with 20 points and also grabbed 9 rebounds, providing a strong two-way performance. The Rams struggled offensively overall, shooting just 39% from the field, but controlled the glass 35-31 and limited turnovers to nine. With the short turnaround heading into this matchup, Colorado State will need improved shooting efficiency against a disciplined San Diego State defense.
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Aztecs Enter Tournament With Balanced Attack
The San Diego State Aztecs enter the quarterfinal matchup with a 20-10 overall record and a 14-6 mark in Mountain West play, earning a bye into this round of the tournament. Over their last five games, San Diego State has recently won over UNLV and Utah State, while also recently losing to Boise State, New Mexico, and Colorado State.
San Diego State averages 79.4 points per game while allowing 71.5 points per game this season. The Aztecs shoot 48% from the field, collect 34.9 rebounds per game, and average 15.4 assists per contest. Defensively, San Diego State contributes 4.5 blocks and 7.7 steals per game, using strong interior defense and active perimeter pressure.
In their most recent game, San Diego State defeated UNLV 89-86 in a high-scoring contest. BJ Davis led the Aztecs with 30 points, delivering a major scoring performance, while Reese Dixon-Waters led the team with 6 rebounds. San Diego State shot an impressive 55% from the field and 40% from three-point range, demonstrating strong offensive efficiency. With the extra rest from the tournament bye and an offense capable of scoring in bursts, the Aztecs will look to maintain that momentum.
Colorado State Rams vs San Diego State Aztecs Pick
Colorado State Rams vs San Diego State Aztecs Spread Pick
- Pick: San Diego State Aztecs -3.5
San Diego State enters this matchup with the rest advantage and a strong offensive showing in its most recent game. Colorado State advanced in the tournament but struggled shooting in the opening round and now faces a tougher defensive opponent. With the Aztecs’ balanced scoring and interior defense, San Diego State should be able to control the tempo and pull away late.
Colorado State Rams vs San Diego State Aztecs Total Pick
- Pick: Under 141.5
I like the under in this matchup because both teams have solid defensive metrics and often slow the pace in conference tournament play. Colorado State struggled offensively in its last game, while San Diego State is capable of locking down defensively when needed. With both teams likely to focus on half-court execution, this game could stay under the total.
Final Score Prediction: San Diego State 72, Colorado State 66
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