Dayton Flyers vs VCU Rams Picks and Predictions for Sunday March 15 2026
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The Dayton Flyers and VCU Rams will battle for the Atlantic 10 Championship Final on Sunday afternoon at PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Tipoff is scheduled for 1:00 PM ET with national television coverage on CBS. Dayton enters the championship game with a 23-10 overall record and a 12-6 mark in Atlantic 10 play, while VCU comes in at 26-7 overall and 15-3 in conference play. VCU is favored by 2.5 points with the total set at 140.5, while the moneyline lists VCU at -155 and Dayton at +130. Be sure to check out our free college basketball picks for more expert analysis and predictions on today’s college basketball matchups.
Dayton Flyers Surging into the Championship
Dayton enters the Atlantic 10 title game with a 23-10 overall record and a 12-6 conference mark after advancing through a competitive semifinal matchup. The Flyers reached the championship after recently winning over Saint Louis 70-69 in the semifinal round. Over their last five games, Dayton has recently won over Saint Louis, recently won over Saint Bonaventure, recently lost to VCU, recently won over Richmond, and recently won over George Washington. That recent loss to VCU adds an interesting storyline to this championship rematch.
From a statistical perspective, Dayton has relied on balanced scoring and solid defensive play throughout the season. The Flyers average 74.9 points per game while allowing 69.9 points per game defensively. They shoot 45 percent from the field, collect 32.7 rebounds per game, and average 14.3 assists per contest. Dayton also contributes 4.1 blocks and 8.5 steals per game, showing defensive activity that can create extra possessions and disrupt opposing offenses.
In the semifinal win over Saint Louis, Jordan Derkack delivered a huge performance with 28 points, leading the Flyers offensively in a tight one-point victory. On the glass, De'Shayne Montgomery led Dayton with seven rebounds, helping the Flyers remain competitive in the rebounding battle. Dayton also showed excellent composure at the free throw line, converting 24 of 29 attempts, which ultimately proved decisive in a close game. That free throw efficiency and late-game composure could play a critical role again in this championship matchup.
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VCU Rams Rolling Through the Tournament
VCU enters the Atlantic 10 championship with a 26-7 overall record and a 15-3 conference record after another strong performance in the semifinal round. The Rams advanced by recently winning over Saint Joseph’s 77-64, continuing their impressive late-season run. In their last five games, VCU has recently won over Saint Joseph’s, recently won over Duquesne, recently won over Dayton, recently won over George Mason, and recently won over Fordham. The Rams have built considerable momentum with this winning streak.
The Rams have been one of the most productive teams in the Atlantic 10 offensively this season. VCU averages 82.1 points per game while allowing 71.8 points per game. They shoot 46 percent from the field, average 36.7 rebounds per game, and produce 14.1 assists per contest. Defensively, VCU records 4.4 blocks and 7.3 steals per game, showing the defensive intensity that has long been a hallmark of the program.
In the semifinal victory over Saint Joseph’s, Terrence Hill Jr. led the Rams with 18 points, shooting an efficient 8-of-10 from the field. On the boards, Nyk Lewis led the team with eight rebounds, helping VCU maintain control of the game’s physical battle. The Rams also limited turnovers to just seven in the contest, which helped them maintain offensive rhythm and build a comfortable lead. With efficient shooting and balanced rebounding, VCU enters the championship with strong momentum.
Dayton Flyers vs VCU Rams Pick
Dayton Flyers vs VCU Rams Spread Pick
- VCU Rams -2.5
VCU enters this championship matchup with a slight edge thanks to its strong offensive efficiency and recent victory over Dayton earlier this month. The Rams have been playing confident basketball during their winning streak and showed impressive shooting efficiency in the semifinal round. Dayton had to grind out a one-point victory against Saint Louis and may face fatigue after another tightly contested game. With VCU’s balanced scoring and rebounding advantage, the Rams have a good chance to cover the short spread in this Atlantic 10 championship.
Dayton Flyers vs VCU Rams Total Pick
- Over 140.5
I like the over in this matchup because both teams have shown the ability to score efficiently during the tournament. VCU averages over 82 points per game and plays at a tempo that can push scoring upward, while Dayton has demonstrated strong free throw shooting and late-game execution. Championship games often bring increased pace as teams fight for momentum swings, and both offenses have the firepower to take advantage. With scoring threats on both sides and recent games trending upward offensively, I believe this matchup has a strong chance to exceed the posted total.
Final Score Prediction: VCU Rams 76, Dayton Flyers 71
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