Florida at Duke Picks & Prediction for Tuesday, December 2, 2025
The Florida Gators travel to Durham to face the Duke Blue Devils on Tuesday, December 2, 2025. Get in on the action with our free NCAAB picks.
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Florida Gators Analysis
Florida, the defending national champions, have had a mixed but overall respectable start to 2025–26 under head coach Todd Golden.
Team Metrics & Context
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Record: 5–2 heading into the Duke game.
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On the season they average roughly 85.9 PPG, with about 48.1 total rebounds per game and contribute around 7.3 made 3-pointers/game.
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They lead the SEC in offensive rebounds per game, getting about 15.3 offensive boards/game, highlighting their ability to crash the glass.
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Strengths:
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Rebounding & second-chance opportunities: Their offensive rebounding prowess gives them extra possessions and helps offset cold shooting nights.
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Scoring ability & pace: Averaging over 85 points showcases how capable they are offensively when shots fall.
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Championship experience & motivation: As defending champs, they know how to handle big games — and this ACC/SEC Challenge provides a spotlight for them to prove they’re built for March again.
Risks / Weaknesses:
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Perimeter efficiency: Their 3-point shooting percentage has dipped this season; reliance on inside scoring and rebounds may be risky against disciplined interior defense.
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First true road test: This will be Florida’s first full true road game this season — playing in the hostile environment of Cameron Indoor Stadium poses challenges. 1
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Ball security and turnovers: Against a defense like Duke’s, careless possessions could swing momentum.
Duke Blue Devils Analysis
Duke has started the 2025-26 campaign with statement wins and looks ultra-balanced, deep, and dangerous.
Key Team Metrics & Context
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Record: 8–0, undefeated at home at 4–0 so far this season.
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Shooting & Rebounding: They shoot an efficient 52.0% from the field and average approximately 40.3 rebounds per game — among the top in the ACC.
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Defense: Duke’s defense has limited opponents’ shooting and points — they’ve held teams below their season averages consistently.
Strengths:
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Balanced offense & depth: With multiple scoring threats and a deep rotation, Duke can adapt if one scorer is doubled or cold.
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Rebounding plus defense: Their rebounding plus disciplined defensive rotations give them control over pace and possession.
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Home-court advantage & momentum: Playing at Cameron Indoor, in front of a loud crowd, with an 8–0 record, gives them confidence and comfort.
Risks / Challenges:
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Possibility of letdown / overconfidence: As a heavy favorite, there’s always a risk of looking past an underdog — especially one with Florida’s athleticism and hunger.
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Guard depth vs. physicality inside: Florida’s rebounding strength could challenge Duke’s frontcourt if Duke relies too much on perimeter play.
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Need for execution vs a scrappy opponent: Florida’s energy and unpredictability can disrupt rhythm — Duke must stay disciplined and avoid careless turnovers or foul trouble.
Standout Players & Key Matchups
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Florida:
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Thomas Haugh: a frontline rebounder and interior presence; his ability to secure boards and convert putbacks will be vital.
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Xavian Lee: one of Florida’s perimeter threats; if he gets hot from outside, Gators can challenge Duke’s spacing and defensive matchups.
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Duke:
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Cameron Boozer: the Blue Devils’ interior anchor; his scoring + rebounding sets the tone, especially on the glass.
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Patrick Ngongba II: secondary scoring and athleticism; his ability to stretch the floor and defend will be key vs Florida’s size.
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Matchup to Watch: Rebounding and second-chance points. Florida excels at crashing the glass and getting offensive boards; if they win the battle there, they could offset Duke’s offensive efficiency. But if Duke controls the glass and limits second-chance possessions, their offensive balance should carry them.
Florida vs Duke Prediction Reasoning
Duke has been ultra-efficient and dominant at home, with strong shooting, rebounding, and defense — a tough recipe for any opponent. Florida has the athleticism, experience, and rebounding strength to make it a fight, but their inefficiency from deep and the challenge of a hostile road environment make this a steep climb. I expect Duke to assert control early, use their size and depth to limit Florida’s second-chance opportunities, and lean on their offense to pull away in the second half. Check out all the sportsbook promos to see if you are getting a great deal on your bets on Florida. Make sure you know about how the fans are looking on prediction markets for Duke with the Kickr promo code. Make sure when you place your bet on Florida vs Duke you are using the BetMGM bonus code.
Final Score Projection: Duke 84, Florida 74
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