Fresno State Bulldogs vs Colorado State Rams Picks and Predictions for Tuesday February 24 2026
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Fresno State heads to Fort Collins to take on Colorado State at Moby Arena (Fort Collins, CO) on Tuesday night at 9:00 PM, with coverage on MWN. Colorado State is listed as an 8.5-point favorite, and the total is set at 146.5, while at the time of this writing the odds were not released for the moneyline. For more daily analysis, make sure to check out our free college basketball picks.
Fresno State’s Uphill Climb in Fort Collins
Fresno State enters this one at 12-15 overall with a 6-10 Mountain West mark. A true road record wasn’t provided in the information available for this matchup, but the recent form gives you a pretty clear picture of how tight the margins have been. Over the last five, the Bulldogs as recently lost to New Mexico 80-78, lost to Wyoming 92-82, won over Air Force 93-63, lost to Utah State 91-78, and lost to Nevada 69-59.
From a production standpoint, Fresno State is scoring 74.2 points per game while allowing 72.9, and they’re shooting 45% from the field. On the glass, they’re pulling down 34.7 rebounds per game, and they’ve averaged 13.3 assists per contest, which suggests they can move the ball well enough to generate decent looks.
Where Fresno State can hang around is by creating extra chances and chaos. The Bulldogs are averaging 7.1 steals per game, a number that can turn a few empty possessions into quick points, especially if they speed up a Colorado State team that would rather play efficiently. The issue is that the defensive consistency hasn’t always matched the energy, and against an opponent shooting 49%, mistakes tend to get punished.
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Colorado State’s Hot Hand at Home
Colorado State comes in at 17-10 overall with an 8-8 Mountain West record. A home record wasn’t included in the information provided, but the Rams’ current trajectory is exactly what you want to see if you’re laying points. They’ve won five straight, as recently winning over San Diego State 83-74, winning over UNLV 91-86, winning over Wyoming 79-68, winning over Air Force 91-74, and winning over San José State 65-57.
Statistically, Colorado State has been the sharper offensive team, scoring 76.8 points per game and allowing 71.0. The most notable split is efficiency: the Rams are shooting 49% from the field, which is a meaningful edge in a game where both sides want to score in the mid-to-high 70s. They also average 15.8 assists per game, pointing to an offense that can create quality looks rather than relying on tough shot-making.
The Rams’ biggest advantage may be how clean they can keep possessions. Even without a standout steals number (5.3 per game), they don’t need to gamble when they can simply get stops and then execute on the other end. Add in 32.7 rebounds per game and a steady interior presence (2.1 blocks per game), and Colorado State looks built to control pace and shot quality—two things that matter a lot when you’re asked to win by margin.
Fresno State vs Colorado State Pick
Fresno State vs Colorado State spread pick
- Pick: Colorado State -8.5
Colorado State is in better form, and the Rams’ offensive efficiency stands out in this matchup. Shooting 49% while averaging 76.8 points per game is a strong profile against a Fresno State defense allowing 72.9 per contest, especially when the Bulldogs have already shown they can give up big numbers in this stretch (92 to Wyoming, 91 to Utah State). Fresno State’s steals can keep things interesting for a while, but if Colorado State continues to generate assists at a high clip (15.8 per game) and turns those into high-percentage looks, Fresno State will need a near-clean performance to stay within one or two possessions late.
Fresno State vs Colorado State total pick
- Pick: Under 146.5
I’m leaning under because Colorado State’s current winning streak suggests they’re getting the stops they need (71.0 allowed per game), and Fresno State has shown some volatility offensively outside of the Air Force game. If the Rams control the game the way their assist rate and field goal percentage indicate, that can lead to longer, more deliberate possessions and fewer scramble sequences—exactly the kind of flow that makes it harder to land in the high 140s. Fresno State can score, but if Colorado State is the team dictating quality and tempo, the under has a better path than the over.
Final Score Prediction: Colorado State 77, Fresno State 67
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