Georgia Southern vs Arkansas State Red Wolves Picks and Predictions for Thursday March 5 2026
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The Georgia Southern Eagles and Arkansas State Red Wolves meet in the Sun Belt Championship 3rd Round on Thursday, March 5, 2026 at the Pensacola Bay Center in Pensacola, Florida. Tipoff is scheduled for 8:30 PM ET, and the game will be televised on ESPN+. Arkansas State enters as the favorite with the line currently around Arkansas State -6.5 with a total near 168.5, according to DraftKings odds. For more insight on today’s games, be sure to check out our free college basketball picks for additional predictions and betting analysis.
Georgia Southern Eagles Look to Ride Tournament Momentum
Georgia Southern enters this Sun Belt Championship matchup with a 17-15 overall record and an 8-10 mark in Sun Belt play. The Eagles advanced to this round after recently winning over Old Dominion 88-84 in the second round, showing strong offensive efficiency in the tournament opener. Over their last five games, Georgia Southern has recently won over Old Dominion and Marshall while recently losing to James Madison, Appalachian State, and Georgia State.
The Eagles have been one of the more productive offensive teams in the Sun Belt this season, averaging 80.4 points per game while allowing 80.0 points per contest. Georgia Southern shoots 43% from the field, averages 34.7 rebounds per game, and contributes 11.0 assists per contest. Defensively, the Eagles generate 8.1 steals per game and 3.7 blocks, which helps them create extra possessions despite allowing opponents to score at a similar rate.
In their second-round win over Old Dominion, Spudd Webb led the way with 29 points while shooting 9-of-15 from the field and adding five assists, providing the offensive spark the Eagles needed to advance. Shainen Carter led the team on the glass with five rebounds, helping Georgia Southern maintain a slight rebounding edge. With such a short turnaround in the tournament, Webb’s scoring ability and the Eagles’ efficient shooting performance in the previous game could play a significant role in keeping this matchup competitive.
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Arkansas State Red Wolves Aim to Capitalize on Rest Advantage
Arkansas State comes into the Sun Belt Championship third round with a 20-11 overall record and an 11-7 conference record, earning a bye into this stage of the tournament. The Red Wolves have been playing strong basketball recently, as they have recently won over Louisiana, Southern Miss, ULM, and Louisiana while recently losing to South Alabama in overtime.
The Red Wolves have been one of the most balanced offensive teams in the Sun Belt, averaging 83.2 points per game while allowing 77.1 points per contest. Arkansas State shoots 45% from the field, pulls down 41.2 rebounds per game, and averages 15.7 assists per contest, showing excellent ball movement. Their rebounding strength has been a major factor this season, and they also generate 7.5 steals per game, helping disrupt opposing offenses.
In their most recent win over Louisiana, TJ Caldwell led Arkansas State with 19 points on 6-of-10 shooting, providing efficient scoring throughout the game. Jalen Hampton dominated the boards with 10 rebounds, helping the Red Wolves control the glass in a 49-rebound team performance. With the benefit of a bye and fresh legs, Arkansas State’s rebounding edge and balanced offensive attack could give them a significant advantage against a Georgia Southern team playing on short rest.
Georgia Southern vs Arkansas State Pick
Georgia Southern vs Arkansas State Spread Pick
- Arkansas State -6.5
Arkansas State enters this matchup with a clear rest advantage after receiving the bye, and that could become a key factor late in the game. The Red Wolves have also been the better rebounding team all season, which could limit Georgia Southern’s second-chance opportunities. While the Eagles showed strong offensive efficiency in their win over Old Dominion, Arkansas State’s deeper roster and ability to control the glass should allow them to gradually pull away. I expect Arkansas State to use its physical advantage and fresher legs to cover the spread.
Georgia Southern vs Arkansas State Total Pick
- Over 168.5
I like the over in this matchup because both teams have shown the ability to play at a fast pace and score in bunches. Georgia Southern averages over 80 points per game and just scored 88 in its last outing, while Arkansas State averages over 83 points per contest. Tournament games can sometimes tighten up defensively, but with the Eagles pushing tempo and Arkansas State capable of efficient scoring, I expect plenty of possessions and scoring opportunities on both sides.
Final Score Prediction: Arkansas State 89, Georgia Southern 81
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