Illinois State Redbirds vs Dayton Flyers Picks and Predictions for Wednesday March 25 2026
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The Illinois State Redbirds and Dayton Flyers meet in the NIT Quarterfinal at UD Arena in Dayton, Ohio, on Wednesday, March 25, 2026, with tip-off scheduled for 7:00 PM ET and televised on ESPN2. Dayton enters this matchup as a 7.5-point favorite with a total set at 139.5, while Illinois State comes in as a +260 underdog on the moneyline. This should be an exciting postseason battle with a trip to the semifinals on the line. Be sure to also check out our free college basketball picks for more expert analysis and daily winners.
Redbirds Looking to Stay Hot in Postseason Run
Illinois State enters this contest with a 22-12 overall record and a 12-9 mark in MVC play, including a 6-7 record on the road this season. The Redbirds have been playing strong basketball lately, as they have recently won over Wake Forest, Kent State, Belmont, and Northern Iowa, while recently losing to Northern Iowa in conference play. Their ability to grind out wins late in the season has been a major factor in this deep NIT run.
From a statistical standpoint, Illinois State averages 75.3 points per game while allowing 68.3 points per contest, showing a solid balance on both ends of the floor. The Redbirds shoot 46% from the field and pull down 35.8 rebounds per game, while also contributing 13.7 assists per contest. Defensively, they create disruption with 5.8 steals per game and add 2.3 blocks, making them a disciplined and physical defensive unit.
In their most recent win over Wake Forest, Illinois State showed resilience and composure in a tight 78-75 victory. Ty Pence led the way with 23 points on efficient shooting, while Boden Skunberg controlled the glass with 9 rebounds. The Redbirds shot just 41% from the field but made up for it with strong free throw shooting at 86%, which proved to be the difference late. Their ability to convert at the line and limit turnovers could be key again, especially on a short turnaround against a strong Dayton team.
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Flyers Riding Home Dominance Into Quarterfinal
Dayton comes into this matchup with a 25-11 overall record and a 14-7 record in A-10 play, including an impressive 14-3 mark at home this season. The Flyers have been rolling recently, as they have recently won over UNC Wilmington, Bradley, Saint Louis, and St. Bonaventure, while recently losing to VCU. Their consistency, especially at home, makes them one of the toughest teams left in the NIT field.
The Flyers average 74.7 points per game while allowing 69.5 points per contest. They shoot 45% from the field and average 32.8 rebounds per game, along with 14.3 assists per contest. Defensively, Dayton stands out with 8.2 steals per game and 3.9 blocks, showing their ability to create turnovers and protect the rim at a high level.
In their dominant 80-61 win over UNC Wilmington, Dayton showcased both offensive efficiency and defensive intensity. De'Shayne Montgomery led the team with 20 points, while Jordan Derkack dominated the boards with 13 rebounds. The Flyers shot an impressive 52% from the field and held UNC Wilmington to just 42% shooting, including only 14% from three-point range. Their rebounding advantage (38-28) and defensive pressure were key factors, and those strengths should carry over into this matchup.
Illinois State Redbirds vs Dayton Flyers Pick
Illinois State Redbirds vs Dayton Flyers Spread Pick
- Pick: Dayton Flyers -7.5
Dayton’s home dominance is simply too strong to ignore in this spot. The Flyers are 14-3 at home and have shown the ability to control games with defense and rebounding. Illinois State has been impressive during this NIT run, but their recent win over Wake Forest exposed some inefficiencies, particularly shooting just 41% from the field. Dayton’s ability to force turnovers and contest shots should limit Illinois State’s scoring opportunities. With the Flyers also coming off a convincing double-digit win, I expect them to dictate the tempo and pull away late to cover the number.
Illinois State Redbirds vs Dayton Flyers Total Pick
- Pick: Under 139.5
I like the under in this matchup because both teams play solid defense and tend to control the pace, especially in postseason settings. Illinois State allows just 68.3 points per game, while Dayton gives up 69.5, and both teams showed defensive intensity in their last outings. I expect a more physical, half-court style game with fewer transition opportunities. With the stakes this high and both teams valuing possessions, this feels like a game that stays just under the total.
Final Score Prediction: Dayton Flyers 72, Illinois State Redbirds 64
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