Iowa Hawkeyes vs Florida Gators Picks and Predictions for Sunday March 22 2026
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The Iowa Hawkeyes and Florida Gators square off in the NCAA Men’s Basketball Championship – South Region – 2nd Round at Benchmark International Arena in Tampa, Florida, on Sunday, March 22, 2026, at 7:10 PM ET, with the game airing on TBS. Florida enters this matchup as a 10.5-point favorite with the total set at 145.5 according to DraftKings odds. This contest features a high-powered Florida offense against a gritty Iowa team that advanced with a defensive-minded performance in the opening round. Be sure to check out our free college basketball picks for more insights on today’s tournament slate.
Iowa Hawkeyes: Grinding Out Wins at the Right Time
Iowa enters this game with a 22-12 overall record and an 11-11 mark in Big Ten play, reflecting a season filled with ups and downs against strong competition. In tournament action, the Hawkeyes advanced with a 67-61 win over Clemson. Looking at recent form, Iowa has recently won over Clemson, recently lost to Ohio State, recently won over Maryland, recently lost to Nebraska, and recently lost to Michigan. While they have not been the most consistent team, they have shown an ability to compete defensively and close out games when it matters most.
From a statistical standpoint, Iowa averages 75.0 points per game while allowing 65.8, indicating a team that relies more on defense than explosive scoring. They shoot 49% from the field but struggle on the glass, averaging just 29.7 rebounds per game. Offensively, they generate 15.0 assists per contest while contributing 7.0 steals and 2.0 blocks defensively. Their rebounding limitations could be a major concern against a physically dominant Florida team.
In their first-round victory, Iowa leaned heavily on defense and rebounding to secure the win. Bennett Stirtz led the team with 16 points, while Cam Manyawu dominated the glass with 10 rebounds. Despite shooting just 38% from the field and 28% from three-point range, Iowa controlled the boards 40-27 and capitalized on free-throw opportunities. That ability to win despite poor shooting is encouraging, but it also highlights a potential issue against a high-scoring team like Florida. If Iowa cannot improve its shooting efficiency, it will be difficult to keep pace in this matchup.
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Florida Gators: Offensive Firepower on Full Display
Florida comes into this matchup with a 27-7 overall record and an impressive 17-3 mark in SEC play, establishing themselves as one of the top teams in the tournament. The Gators advanced in dominant fashion with a 114-55 win over Prairie View A&M in the first round. Over their last five games, Florida has recently won over Prairie View A&M, recently lost to Vanderbilt, recently won over Kentucky, recently won over Kentucky again, and recently won over Mississippi State. This stretch highlights both their offensive potential and their ability to respond after a loss.
Statistically, Florida is one of the most explosive offensive teams in the field, averaging 87.6 points per game while allowing 71.5. They shoot 48% from the field and dominate the glass with 45.7 rebounds per game. The Gators also average 17.0 assists and contribute 6.6 steals and 5.1 blocks per game, showcasing a well-rounded team that can score efficiently while also protecting the rim and controlling possessions.
In their opening-round blowout, Florida displayed elite efficiency on both ends of the floor. Boogie Fland led the team with 16 points on perfect shooting, while Rueben Chinyelu controlled the boards with 13 rebounds, helping Florida dominate the rebounding battle 54-20. The Gators shot an incredible 64% from the field and 45% from three-point range, completely overwhelming their opponent. While that level of efficiency may not be fully replicable, it underscores Florida’s ability to take over games quickly. Their depth and scoring versatility make them a difficult matchup for any team, especially one that struggles with rebounding consistency like Iowa.
Iowa Hawkeyes vs Florida Gators Pick
Iowa Hawkeyes vs Florida Gators Spread Pick
- Pick: Florida -10.5
Florida’s offensive firepower and rebounding dominance create a tough matchup for Iowa. The Hawkeyes were able to survive a low-scoring game in the first round, but this matchup likely requires them to keep up in a faster-paced environment. Florida’s ability to score in transition and dominate the glass should lead to second-chance opportunities and a steady scoring advantage. I expect the Gators to control the tempo and gradually pull away, covering the double-digit spread.
Iowa Hawkeyes vs Florida Gators Total Pick
- Pick: Over 145.5
I like the over in this matchup because Florida’s pace and offensive efficiency should push the total higher. Iowa may struggle to match Florida’s scoring, but they have shown they can contribute enough points to keep the game moving. I expect Florida to dictate tempo and create a faster game than Iowa prefers, which should lead to more possessions and scoring opportunities. Even if Iowa is somewhat inefficient, Florida’s offense alone could push this game toward the over.
Final Score Prediction: Florida 86, Iowa 70
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