Iowa State Cyclones vs Texas Tech Red Raiders Picks and Predictions for Thursday March 12 2026
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The Iowa State Cyclones and Texas Tech Red Raiders meet in the Phillips 66 Big 12 Tournament Quarterfinal on Thursday, March 12, 2026, at the T-Mobile Center in Kansas City, Missouri. Tip-off is scheduled for 12:30 PM ET with television coverage on ESPN. Iowa State enters the matchup as a -5.5 favorite, while Texas Tech is listed at +5.5, and the total for the game is 143.5 according to DraftKings. Be sure to check out our free college basketball picks for more daily predictions and betting insights.
Cyclones Carry Momentum into Quarterfinal Matchup
The Iowa State Cyclones enter this game with a 26-6 overall record and a 12-6 mark in Big 12 play this season. Iowa State advanced to the quarterfinals of the Big 12 Tournament after defeating Arizona State 91-42 in the second round. Over their last five games, the Cyclones have recently won over Arizona State twice and Utah, while also recently losing to Arizona and Texas Tech.
Iowa State averages 81.8 points per game while allowing just 65.0 points per game this season. The Cyclones shoot 49% from the field, pull down 35.5 rebounds per game, and average 17.4 assists per contest. On the defensive side, Iowa State contributes 2.8 blocks and 9.0 steals per game, showing an ability to create turnovers and turn defense into transition scoring opportunities.
In their dominant win over Arizona State in the previous round, Milan Momcilovic led the Cyclones with 21 points on efficient shooting, while Joshua Jefferson controlled the glass with 12 rebounds and added 4 assists in an all-around performance. Iowa State shot 51% from the field and 40% from three-point range while forcing 23 turnovers, demonstrating the defensive intensity that has been a key strength of the team. The Cyclones now face a short turnaround, but if their defense continues to pressure opponents the way it did in the previous round, they will be difficult to slow down.
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Red Raiders Look to Respond After Late-Season Loss
The Texas Tech Red Raiders enter this quarterfinal matchup with a 22-9 overall record and a 12-6 record in Big 12 play, earning a bye into this round of the Big 12 Tournament. Over their last five games, Texas Tech has recently won over Iowa State, Cincinnati, and Kansas State, while also recently losing to BYU and TCU.
Texas Tech averages 81.3 points per game while allowing 72.5 points per game this season. The Red Raiders shoot 47% from the field, collect 37.2 rebounds per game, and average 16.0 assists per contest. Defensively, Texas Tech contributes 3.8 blocks and 5.8 steals per game, relying on rebounding and half-court execution to control games.
In their most recent game, Texas Tech fell to BYU 82-76, but Donovan Atwell led the Red Raiders with 23 points while keeping the offense productive throughout the contest. LeJuan Watts led the team on the boards with 7 rebounds. Texas Tech shot 47% from the field and an impressive 46% from three-point range, showing their offensive potential even in defeat. With the extra rest from their first-round bye and a recent win over Iowa State earlier this season, the Red Raiders will try to use their rebounding edge and perimeter shooting to challenge the Cyclones.
Iowa State Cyclones vs Texas Tech Red Raiders Pick
Iowa State Cyclones vs Texas Tech Red Raiders Spread Pick
- Pick: Iowa State Cyclones -5.5
Iowa State enters this matchup with momentum after a dominant tournament performance and has been one of the most balanced teams in the Big 12 this season. The Cyclones’ defensive pressure and ability to create turnovers could create problems for Texas Tech’s offense. While the Red Raiders are capable of scoring, Iowa State’s defensive intensity and recent form give them the edge to pull away late.
Iowa State Cyclones vs Texas Tech Red Raiders Total Pick
- Pick: Under 143.5
I like the under in this matchup because both teams have strong defensive capabilities and tend to play physical half-court basketball in Big 12 matchups. Tournament games often slow down as possessions become more valuable, and Iowa State’s defense has been particularly effective at limiting opponents. With both teams capable of forcing tough shots, I expect scoring to remain relatively controlled.
Final Score Prediction: Iowa State 74, Texas Tech 67
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