IU Indianapolis Jaguars vs Cleveland State Vikings Picks and Prediction for Monday March 2, 2026
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The IU Indianapolis Jaguars and Cleveland State Vikings meet in the Barbasol Horizon League Championship Play-In round at the Wolstein Center in Cleveland, Ohio on March 2, 2026. Tip-off is scheduled for 7:00 PM and the game will be televised on ESPN+. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Be sure to check out our free college basketball picks for today’s best plays.
Jaguars Searching for a Spark
IU Indianapolis enters the Horizon League Tournament with a 7-24 overall record and a 3-17 mark in conference play. The Jaguars did not advance through previous tournament rounds, as this is their opening play-in matchup. They recently lost to Purdue Fort Wayne, Oakland, Wright State, Purdue Fort Wayne, and Northern Kentucky, dropping five straight games to close the regular season.
The Jaguars average 83.3 points per game but allow 87.9 points per contest, one of the more concerning defensive numbers in the conference. They shoot 46% from the field and average 32.4 rebounds and 20.2 assists per game. IU Indianapolis generates 9.0 steals per contest and adds 3.3 blocks, showing they can create defensive pressure, but their inability to consistently defend without fouling or giving up efficient looks has hurt them throughout conference play.
A key tournament-specific angle for IU Indianapolis is their offensive efficiency in the most recent game despite the loss. In their 87-81 defeat to Purdue Fort Wayne, the Jaguars shot 49% from the field and 40% from three-point range. Maguire Mitchell led the team with 20 points, while Finley Woodward controlled the glass with 7 rebounds and also dished out 10 assists. However, they committed 14 turnovers in that contest, which proved costly. If Mitchell continues to score efficiently and Woodward controls tempo, IU Indianapolis can remain competitive, but ball security must improve.
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Vikings Hoping to Regroup on Home Floor
Cleveland State enters the Horizon League Tournament at 10-21 overall and 6-14 in conference play. Like IU Indianapolis, this is their first game of the tournament. The Vikings recently lost to Robert Morris, Northern Kentucky, Purdue Fort Wayne, Youngstown State, and Wright State, also closing the regular season on a five-game losing streak.
The Vikings average 80.2 points per game while allowing 85.6 points per contest. They shoot 45% from the field and average 32.8 rebounds and 15.7 assists per game. Defensively, Cleveland State contributes 2.8 blocks and 5.4 steals per contest. Dayan Nessah leads the team in scoring at 15.5 points per game and also averages 6.4 rebounds, giving the Vikings a reliable interior presence.
The most concerning tournament angle for Cleveland State is their defensive performance in their most recent outing. In the 83-64 loss to Robert Morris, the Vikings shot just 41% from the field. Chevalier Emery led the team with 11 points, while Josiah Harris pulled down 5 rebounds, but Cleveland State was outrebounded 37-28 and allowed 55% shooting to Robert Morris. If the Vikings are to advance, they must tighten up defensively and avoid getting overwhelmed on the glass again.
IU Indianapolis vs Cleveland State Pick
IU Indianapolis vs Cleveland State Spread Pick
- IU Indianapolis Jaguars + Points (Lean)
Both teams enter this play-in game struggling, but IU Indianapolis showed more offensive life in their most recent outing. The Jaguars shot nearly 50% from the field and 40% from three, and if that efficiency carries over, they can keep this matchup close. Cleveland State has dropped five straight and struggled defensively, particularly in their latest loss. With both defenses allowing over 85 points per game, grabbing the points with the slightly more explosive offense has value.
IU Indianapolis vs Cleveland State Total Pick
- Over 161.5 (Projection)
I like the over in this matchup. Both teams average over 80 points per game while allowing well over 85 per contest. IU Indianapolis just played in an 87-81 game and Cleveland State allowed 83 in its last outing. Neither team has shown consistent defensive resistance late in the season, and tournament nerves can sometimes lead to quicker tempo and transition opportunities. With two struggling defenses and capable scorers on both sides, I expect this game to climb into the 160s.
Final Score Prediction: IU Indianapolis 84, Cleveland State 80
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