Lindenwood Lions vs Southeast Missouri State Redhawks Picks and Predictions for Thursday March 5 2026
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The Lindenwood Lions and Southeast Missouri State Redhawks meet in the OVC Championship Quarterfinal on Thursday, March 5, 2026 at the Ford Center in Evansville, Indiana. Tipoff is scheduled for 9:30 PM ET, and the game will be broadcast on ESPN+. At the time of this writing, the odds were not released. For more predictions on today’s games, be sure to check out our free college basketball picks for additional betting insight and analysis.
Lindenwood Lions Ride Opening-Round Momentum
Lindenwood enters this OVC Championship quarterfinal with an 18-14 overall record and an 11-9 mark in OVC play. The Lions advanced to this round after recently winning over Little Rock 72-62 in the OVC Championship first round. Over their last five games, Lindenwood has recently won over Little Rock and Western Illinois while recently losing to Eastern Illinois, Tennessee Tech, and Tennessee State.
The Lions have been a solid offensive team this season, averaging 78.3 points per game while allowing 72.8 points per contest. Lindenwood shoots 46% from the field, averages 38.7 rebounds per game, and distributes 14.9 assists per contest, showing good offensive balance. Defensively, they contribute 8.9 steals per game and 4.5 blocks, giving them the ability to disrupt opposing offenses and create transition scoring opportunities.
In their first-round win over Little Rock, Milos Nenadic delivered a huge performance with 24 points and 11 rebounds, leading the Lions in both scoring and rebounding while converting an impressive 16-of-16 from the free throw line. His ability to dominate inside and at the line gives Lindenwood a strong interior presence. With the quick turnaround of tournament play, Nenadic’s physical presence and Lindenwood’s rebounding ability could play a key role as they try to pull off an upset against the higher-seeded Redhawks. 
Southeast Missouri State Looks to Use Fresh Legs
Southeast Missouri State enters the OVC Championship quarterfinal with a 19-12 overall record and a 14-6 conference record, earning a bye into this round of the tournament. The Redhawks have played strong basketball down the stretch, as they have recently won over Tennessee Tech, Little Rock, and UT Martin while recently losing to Tennessee State and recently winning over Lindenwood.
The Redhawks have built their success around efficient scoring and solid defense, averaging 75.2 points per game while allowing just 70.9 points per contest. Southeast Missouri State shoots 45% from the field, averages 33.8 rebounds per game, and records 12.6 assists per contest. Defensively, they also contribute 6.8 steals per game and 3.5 blocks, helping them limit second-chance opportunities and control the tempo of games.
In their most recent win over Tennessee Tech, Luke Almodovar led the Redhawks with 21 points on 8-of-12 shooting, providing a highly efficient offensive performance. Troy Cole Jr. controlled the boards with eight rebounds while also adding three assists, helping Southeast Missouri State maintain balance on both ends of the floor. With the benefit of extra rest and a strong inside presence from Cole Jr., the Redhawks will look to control the glass and dictate the pace against a Lindenwood team playing its second game in as many days.
Lindenwood vs Southeast Missouri State Pick
Lindenwood vs Southeast Missouri State Spread Pick
- Southeast Missouri State Moneyline
Southeast Missouri State enters this matchup with the advantage of rest after receiving the first-round bye, and that could become a major factor late in the game. Lindenwood played a physical contest in the opening round and now faces a quick turnaround. The Redhawks also defeated the Lions earlier this season and have the defensive discipline to slow down Lindenwood’s scoring options. With Luke Almodovar providing efficient offense and Troy Cole Jr. controlling the boards, Southeast Missouri State should have enough balance to secure the win.
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Rob Vinciletti | +5,547.00 |
| 2 |  Steve Seagrave | +3,420.00 |
| 3 |  Stephen Nover | +3,085.00 |
| 4 |  Nick Parsons | +1,166.00 |
| 5 |  Tom Macrina | +740.00 |
Lindenwood vs Southeast Missouri State Total Pick
- Over 148.5
I like the over in this matchup because both teams have shown the ability to score efficiently when they get into a rhythm. Lindenwood averages more than 78 points per game and relies on aggressive rebounding and transition opportunities to generate offense. Southeast Missouri State is also capable of scoring efficiently, especially when Almodovar gets going from the perimeter. With tournament intensity often leading to faster pace and late free throws, I expect this game to reach the over.
Final Score Prediction: Southeast Missouri State 79, Lindenwood 72
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