Marist Red Foxes vs Merrimack Warriors Picks and Predictions for Sunday March 8 2026
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The Marist Red Foxes and Merrimack Warriors meet in the MAAC Championship Semifinal on Sunday, March 8, 2026 at Jim Whelan Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City, New Jersey. Tipoff is scheduled for 6:00 PM ET and the game will be streamed on ESPN+. Both teams advanced through the quarterfinal round and now compete for a spot in the MAAC Championship Game. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Be sure to check out our free college basketball picks for more predictions and expert analysis on today’s biggest college basketball games.
Marist Carrying Quarterfinal Momentum
The Marist Red Foxes enter the semifinal matchup with a 19-11 overall record and a 12-8 mark in MAAC play. Marist advanced to this round with a 77-75 win over Quinnipiac in the quarterfinal on March 7. In their recent stretch the Red Foxes recently won over Quinnipiac, recently lost to Saint Peter’s, recently won over Sacred Heart, recently won over Manhattan, and recently lost to Siena.
Marist has relied on a balanced style throughout the season. The Red Foxes average 69.9 points per game while allowing 64.0 points per contest, which reflects a defense-first approach. They shoot 44% from the field, average 35.5 rebounds per game, and distribute the ball effectively with 15.2 assists per contest. Defensively the team contributes 2.9 blocks and 7.0 steals per game, which helps create extra possessions.
In the quarterfinal victory over Quinnipiac, Justin Menard led Marist with 26 points, delivering an efficient offensive performance to carry the scoring load. Jadin Collins-Roberts led the Red Foxes on the boards with 11 rebounds, helping Marist remain competitive in a tightly contested rebounding battle. The key tournament factor for Marist is their ability to grind out close games, as they survived a two-point contest in the quarterfinal and now must manage the short turnaround heading into the semifinal.
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Merrimack’s Defensive Identity on Display
The Merrimack Warriors enter the semifinal with a 22-10 overall record and a dominant 17-3 record in MAAC play. Merrimack advanced with a 70-48 win over Sacred Heart in the quarterfinal. In recent games the Warriors recently won over Sacred Heart, recently won over Niagara, recently lost to Canisius, recently won over Iona in double overtime, and recently won over Siena in overtime.
Merrimack has been one of the more disciplined defensive teams in the conference this season. The Warriors average 69.3 points per game while allowing 66.8 points per contest. They shoot 42% from the field, average 28.8 rebounds per game, and produce 12.6 assists per contest. Defensively the Warriors generate 4.9 blocks and 8.1 steals per game, which creates defensive pressure and transition opportunities.
In the quarterfinal win over Sacred Heart, Kevair Kennedy led Merrimack with 24 points, providing the offensive spark in the victory. Ernest Shelton led the Warriors with 9 rebounds, helping Merrimack control the glass while limiting second chances for Sacred Heart. Merrimack also forced 15 turnovers and held Sacred Heart to just 35% shooting, highlighting the defensive intensity that has been a defining factor throughout the season.
Marist Red Foxes vs Merrimack Warriors Pick
Marist vs Merrimack Spread Pick
- Merrimack Warriors Moneyline
Merrimack enters this semifinal with the stronger defensive profile and a convincing quarterfinal performance. The Warriors held Sacred Heart to just 48 points, demonstrating their ability to control the tempo and limit offensive efficiency. Marist has shown resilience in close games, but the Warriors’ defensive pressure and ability to force turnovers could make scoring difficult. With Merrimack’s defensive intensity and balanced attack, they have the edge heading into this semifinal matchup.
Marist vs Merrimack Total Pick
- Under
I like the under in this matchup because both teams play at a slower tempo and rely heavily on defense. Marist allows just 64 points per game, while Merrimack typically keeps opponents in the mid-60s as well. In tournament settings where every possession becomes more valuable, games between defensive teams often slow down significantly. With both teams emphasizing defense and rebounding, I expect a lower-scoring semifinal contest.
Final Score Prediction: Merrimack Warriors 68, Marist Red Foxes 63
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