McNeese Cowboys vs Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks Picks and Predictions for Wednesday March 11 2026
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The McNeese Cowboys face the Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks in the Southland Tournament Final on Wednesday, March 11, 2026, at Townsley Law Arena in Lake Charles, Louisiana. Tip-off is scheduled for 5:00 PM ET, and the game will be broadcast on ESPN2. At the time of this writing, the odds were not released. Be sure to check out our free college basketball picks for additional tournament predictions and betting insights.
McNeese Survives Marathon Semifinal
The McNeese Cowboys enter the Southland Tournament championship game with a 27-5 overall record and a 19-3 mark in conference play. They advanced to the final after recently winning over UT Rio Grande Valley 84-80 in triple overtime in the semifinal round. Over their last five games, McNeese has recently won over UT Rio Grande Valley twice, Nicholls, New Orleans, and Texas A&M-Commerce, entering the final with a five-game winning streak.
McNeese averages 80.0 points per game while allowing 66.7 points per contest this season. The Cowboys shoot 47% from the field and average 34.7 rebounds and 14.1 assists per game, highlighting a balanced offense that can score both inside and from the perimeter. Defensively they are very disruptive, averaging 10.4 steals and 4.3 blocks per game, which helps them generate transition opportunities and extra possessions.
In the semifinal win over UT Rio Grande Valley, McNeese showed resilience in a demanding three-overtime battle. Larry Johnson led the Cowboys with 27 points and also grabbed 12 rebounds, delivering a dominant performance on both ends of the floor. McNeese also controlled the glass 48-47 and committed just 10 turnovers, but the extended minutes and physical nature of that game could create fatigue heading into the championship matchup. 
Stephen F. Austin Grinding Out Defensive Wins
The Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks come into the Southland Tournament final with a 28-4 overall record and a 20-2 conference mark. They advanced after recently winning over Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 60-58 in the semifinal round. Over their last five games, Stephen F. Austin has recently won over Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, Incarnate Word, Houston Christian, and Nicholls, while they have recently lost to New Orleans.
Stephen F. Austin averages 77.5 points per game while allowing just 65.6 points per contest, one of the stronger defensive profiles in the conference. The Lumberjacks shoot 45% from the field and average 38.1 rebounds and 13.9 assists per game, showing strong rebounding and efficient offensive execution. Defensively they produce 6.9 steals and 3.7 blocks per game, often forcing opponents into difficult half-court possessions.
In their semifinal win over Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, Stephen F. Austin relied on clutch scoring and disciplined defense to secure the victory. Keon Thompson led the Lumberjacks with 24 points and also pulled down 6 rebounds, making him the most impactful player in that tight contest. SFA also forced 17 turnovers, demonstrating the defensive pressure that has helped them reach the tournament final.
McNeese Cowboys vs Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks Pick
McNeese Cowboys vs Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks Spread Pick
- Pick: Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks Moneyline
Stephen F. Austin enters the championship game with the defensive consistency and rebounding edge that often proves decisive in tournament finals. While McNeese is a highly productive offensive team, they are coming off a physically demanding triple-overtime semifinal that could impact their legs late in the game. With the Lumberjacks playing disciplined defense and showing the ability to force turnovers, they appear slightly better positioned to grind out a championship victory.
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Rob Vinciletti | +3,530.00 |
| 2 |  Steve Seagrave | +1,500.00 |
| 3 |  Nick Parsons | +951.00 |
| 4 |  Stephen Nover | +743.00 |
| 5 |  Tom Macrina | +196.00 |
McNeese Cowboys vs Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks Total Pick
- Pick: Under
I like the under in this matchup because championship games in conference tournaments often slow down, especially when two strong defensive teams are involved. Stephen F. Austin already showed their ability to win low-scoring games in the semifinal, and McNeese may also play at a slightly slower pace after the long overtime battle the previous day. With both teams capable defensively, this game has the feel of a tightly contested, lower-scoring championship.
Final Score Prediction: Stephen F. Austin 72, McNeese 69
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