Memphis Tigers vs Florida Atlantic Owls Pick & Prediction for Sunday January 11 2026
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The Memphis Tigers head to Boca Raton, Florida to face the Florida Atlantic Owls in an American Athletic Conference matchup at Eleanor R. Baldwin Arena. Tip-off is set for 1:00 PM ET, and the game will be televised on ESPN2. Memphis enters conference play unbeaten, but FAU has the stronger overall profile and home-court edge in this one. Get in on all the college basketball action with our free college basketball picks.
Memphis Tigers Preview: Winning in the AAC, But Offense Has Been Uneven
Memphis comes into this matchup 7-7 overall and 2-0 in American play, and they’ve been trending the right way with three straight wins, including back-to-back conference victories over Rice (76-70) and North Texas (57-48).
Statistically, Memphis is scoring 74.1 points per game and allowing 73.2 points per game. They’re shooting 43% from the field, and one of their biggest strengths is pressure defense, as they average 9.5 steals per game. Rebounding has also been a plus at 37.9 boards per contest, and they’ve found ways to win games even when the shooting isn’t crisp.
Offensively, Dug McDaniel leads the Tigers at 14.5 PPG and also sets the table with 5.1 assists per game, but he’s also carrying a heavy load with 3.3 turnovers per game. On the glass, Julius Thedford tops the team at 5.4 rebounds per game. For Memphis to win on the road here, they’ll need their defensive activity to create easy points and keep FAU out of rhythm.
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Florida Atlantic Owls Preview: More Efficient Scoring and Better Balance
Florida Atlantic enters at 10-6 overall and 2-1 in the American, coming off a road win at UAB (76-71). While they’ve taken a few losses recently, their offensive profile remains the stronger side of this matchup.
FAU averages 83.1 points per game while allowing 72.9 points per game. They shoot 47% from the field and rebound extremely well at 39.7 per game, giving them extra possessions and second-chance opportunities. Defensively, they don’t generate as many steals as Memphis (6.3 per game), but they protect the rim well with 5.8 blocks per game.
The Owls are led by Devin Vanterpool, who posts 16.6 PPG and also leads the team in rebounding at 6.5 per game. Kanaan Carlyle paces FAU in assists at 3.2 per game. If FAU plays to its strengths—efficient shooting and rebounding—they’ll be in a good spot to defend home court.
Matchup Factors
- FAU has the clear offensive edge (83.1 PPG vs 74.1 PPG) and is the more efficient shooting team (47% vs 43%).
- Memphis creates disruption with steals (9.5 per game), but FAU’s rim protection (5.8 blocks per game) can erase mistakes.
- Rebounding leans FAU (39.7 vs 37.9), which matters in a game expected to be tight.
Memphis Tigers vs Florida Atlantic Owls Prediction
ATS Pick: Florida Atlantic -2.5 I’m backing FAU to cover at home. The Owls’ scoring profile is simply stronger, and they’re the more consistent shooting team. Memphis can absolutely hang around with defense and turnovers, but FAU’s rebounding and shot-blocking give them a solid counter to Memphis’ pressure, and that balance should be enough to win a close one.
Total Pick: Under 152.5 Even though FAU scores well, Memphis has shown it can drag games into lower totals (like the 57-48 win over North Texas), and they’ll want to keep this one in a more controlled range. With Memphis likely focusing on defense and FAU not being a high-steal team, the under has value if the pace doesn’t run wild.
Final Score Prediction
Florida Atlantic 77, Memphis 72
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