Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. Florida Gators Picks and Prediction for Tuesday, March 3, 2026
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Florida returns home to the Stephen C. O’Connell Center at 8:00 PM ET riding momentum. The Gators sit at 23-6 overall and 14-2 in SEC play, while Mississippi State comes in at 13-16 and 5-11 in conference action. ESPN’s matchup predictor gives Florida a big edge, and recent form backs that up. Florida has won five straight, while Mississippi State has dropped three in a row. Slam dunk your bets with our College Basketball picks.
Mississippi State Preview
Mississippi State is averaging 77.7 points per game but allowing 80.3, which has been the issue during this recent slide. The Bulldogs gave up 88 to Missouri and 100 to Alabama in back-to-back losses before falling 97-89 at South Carolina. Josh Hubbard leads the offense at 21.4 points per game and shoots 41.8 percent from the field, but the supporting cast has struggled to slow SEC opponents. Mississippi State shoots 45 percent as a team and grabs 38.9 rebounds per game, yet opponents are consistently winning second-chance opportunities and pushing tempo.
Florida Preview
Florida has been one of the most efficient teams in the conference, averaging 87.1 points while holding opponents to 71.4. The Gators just dismantled Arkansas 111-77 and have cleared 90 points in three of the last five games. Thomas Haugh leads the way at 17.1 points per game on 46.9 percent shooting, and Rueben Chinyelu dominates the glass with 11.7 rebounds per game. Florida shoots 48 percent from the field and averages 45.4 rebounds, creating a clear edge inside and in transition.
Mississippi State vs Florida Prediction
The key matchup is pace and shot quality. Florida averages 16.6 assists and moves the ball efficiently, while Mississippi State gives up 80.3 points per game and has struggled to contain explosive offenses. If Florida controls the boards and limits Hubbard’s perimeter looks, this turns into a comfortable home result.
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Prediction: Florida 99, Mississippi State 68
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