Missouri State Bears vs Liberty Flames Picks and Predictions for Wednesday March 11 2026
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The Missouri State Bears and Liberty Flames meet in the CUSA Championship Quarterfinal on Wednesday, March 11, 2026, at Propst Arena in Huntsville, Alabama. Tip-off is scheduled for 6:30 PM ET, and the game will be televised on ESPN+. At the time of this writing, the odds were not released. Be sure to check out our free college basketball picks for more betting insights and predictions during the tournament.
Missouri State Looking to Build on First-Round Win
The Missouri State Bears enter this quarterfinal matchup with a 15-17 overall record and an 8-12 mark in Conference USA play. They advanced to the quarterfinal after recently winning over Florida International 75-72 in the first round of the CUSA Championship. In their last five games, Missouri State has recently won over Florida International and Western Kentucky, while they have recently lost to Middle Tennessee, Sam Houston, and Louisiana Tech.
Missouri State averages 75.3 points per game while allowing 73.9 points per game this season. The Bears shoot 45% from the field, while averaging 35.0 rebounds and 14.4 assists per game. On the defensive end they contribute 6.9 steals and 3.1 blocks per contest, showing an ability to generate turnovers and protect the rim when they are locked in defensively.
In the first-round win over FIU, Missouri State shot an impressive 53% from the field and 42% from three-point range, showing strong offensive efficiency in a tightly contested game. Kobi Williams led the Bears with 15 points, while Melakih Cunningham pulled down 6 rebounds to help stabilize the frontcourt. Missouri State also forced 14 FIU turnovers, and that defensive pressure could again be a key factor as they attempt to slow down a very efficient Liberty offense despite the short turnaround.
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Liberty Enters Tournament Well Rested After Bye
The Liberty Flames come into the CUSA Championship Quarterfinal with a strong 25-6 overall record and a 17-3 mark in Conference USA play, earning them a first-round bye in the tournament. In their last five games, Liberty has recently won over Sam Houston and Jacksonville State, while they have recently lost to Louisiana Tech, Kennesaw State, and Western Kentucky.
Liberty has been one of the most efficient offensive teams in the conference this season. The Flames average 78.5 points per game while allowing 70.2 points, and they shoot an outstanding 52% from the field. Liberty also averages 29.1 rebounds and 17.3 assists per game, showing strong ball movement and offensive cohesion. Defensively they record 6.3 steals and 3.5 blocks per game, helping them disrupt opposing offenses while maintaining strong shooting efficiency on the other end.
In their most recent game, Liberty defeated Sam Houston 79-72, controlling the contest with efficient shooting and balanced scoring. Zach Cleveland led the Flames with 19 points on 9-of-10 shooting, while also dominating the glass with 9 rebounds. His ability to impact both scoring and rebounding gives Liberty a strong interior presence, and if Cleveland continues that level of efficiency, the Flames will be difficult for Missouri State to slow down in this quarterfinal matchup.
Missouri State Bears vs Liberty Flames Pick
Missouri State Bears vs Liberty Flames Spread Pick
- Pick: Liberty Flames Moneyline
Liberty has been the more consistent team all season and enters this matchup well rested after receiving the tournament bye. The Flames also hold a major efficiency advantage, particularly with their 52% field goal shooting and strong ball movement. Missouri State had a solid performance in the opening round, but the short turnaround combined with Liberty’s offensive efficiency and balanced scoring attack gives the Flames the edge to advance to the semifinals.
Missouri State Bears vs Liberty Flames Total Pick
- Pick: Over
I like the over in this matchup because Liberty’s offensive efficiency combined with Missouri State’s willingness to push the pace can lead to a higher-scoring game than expected. Missouri State just shot over 50% from the field in the first round and showed they can score when their perimeter shooting is working. Liberty also moves the ball extremely well and shoots efficiently, which should generate plenty of quality looks. With both teams capable of scoring in transition and in the half court, I expect the points to build steadily throughout the game.
Final Score Prediction: Liberty 80, Missouri State 71
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