Morehead State Eagles vs Tennessee State Tigers Picks and Predictions for Saturday March 7 2026
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The Morehead State Eagles and Tennessee State Tigers meet in the OVC Championship Final on Saturday, March 7, 2026, at the Ford Center in Evansville, Indiana. Tip-off is scheduled for 9:00 PM ET, and the game will be televised on ESPN2. At the time of this writing, the odds were not released. For more insights and predictions on college basketball action, be sure to check out our free college basketball picks for additional expert analysis.
Morehead State Eagles Lean on Defense and Rebounding
The Morehead State Eagles enter the OVC Championship Final with a 20-12 overall record and a 15-5 conference record. The Eagles advanced to the title game with a 66-61 semifinal win over Southeast Missouri State. Over their last five games, Morehead State has recently won over Southeast Missouri State, Little Rock, Southern Indiana, Western Illinois, and Eastern Illinois, showing strong momentum heading into the championship.
Morehead State averages 75.8 points per game while allowing 74.2 points per contest. The Eagles shoot 47% from the field, collect 36.0 rebounds per game, and average 13.8 assists per contest. Defensively, they add 6.6 steals and 3.0 blocks per game, giving them the ability to disrupt opponents while maintaining a balanced offensive attack.
In their semifinal win over Southeast Missouri State, Anouar Mellouk led the Eagles with 22 points on 8-of-15 shooting, providing a crucial offensive spark. Jon Carroll dominated the glass with 14 rebounds, including strong work on the defensive boards to limit second-chance opportunities. Despite shooting just 38% from the field, Morehead State controlled the rebounding battle 44-40, highlighting the physical presence that has helped them reach the OVC title game. 
Tennessee State Tigers Bring Balanced Attack into the Final
The Tennessee State Tigers enter the championship game with a 22-9 overall record and a 15-5 OVC record. Tennessee State advanced to the final with a 68-55 semifinal victory over UT Martin. Over their last five games, the Tigers have recently won over UT Martin twice, Southeast Missouri State, SIUE, and Lindenwood, riding a strong winning streak into this matchup.
Tennessee State averages 80.5 points per game while allowing 73.5 points per contest, making them one of the more productive offenses in the conference. The Tigers shoot 46% from the field, grab 37.8 rebounds per game, and average 13.1 assists per contest. Defensively they generate 9.5 steals and 3.6 blocks per game, creating transition opportunities and forcing opponents into difficult shots.
In their semifinal victory, Aaron Nkrumah led the Tigers with 19 points on 8-of-14 shooting while also adding 4 assists, controlling the offensive tempo. Antoine Lorick III was dominant on the boards with 10 rebounds, including seven offensive rebounds that created second-chance scoring opportunities. Tennessee State shot 47% from the field and 41% from three-point range, showing the offensive efficiency they bring into the championship game.
Morehead State vs Tennessee State Pick
Morehead State vs Tennessee State Spread Pick
- Pick: Tennessee State Tigers - Moneyline
Both teams enter the OVC Championship with strong momentum, but Tennessee State’s offensive efficiency and rebounding depth give them a slight edge. The Tigers have averaged over 80 points per game this season, and their ability to create extra possessions with offensive rebounds could prove decisive. With players like Aaron Nkrumah leading the offense and a balanced supporting cast around him, Tennessee State has the tools to control the pace and capture the conference title.
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Nick Parsons | +2,504.00 |
| 2 |  Mark Zinno | +1,729.00 |
| 3 |  Rob Vinciletti | +1,001.00 |
| 4 |  Mike Lundin | +572.00 |
| 5 |  Stephen Nover | +258.00 |
Morehead State vs Tennessee State Total Pick
- Pick: Under
I like the under in this matchup because championship games often slow down as teams tighten their defensive focus. Morehead State has shown the ability to grind out lower-scoring games, including their 66-61 semifinal win, while Tennessee State’s defense has also been strong during this tournament run. With both teams fighting for an NCAA Tournament bid, I expect a more deliberate pace and a physical battle throughout the game.
Final Score Prediction: Tennessee State 74, Morehead State 69
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