Mount St. Mary’s vs Marist Picks and Predictions for Friday, December 5, 2025
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Mount St. Mary’s and Marist meet at McCann Arena in Poughkeepsie for an early MAAC showdown, with tipoff set for 7:00 PM EST on ESPN+. The Mountaineers are trying to stop a rough start at 2–7 (0–1 MAAC), while the Red Foxes look to build on a solid 4–2 mark and extend their league momentum on their home floor. If you’re looking for more action across the board, don’t forget to check out the latest college basketball picks.
Mount St. Mary’s Preview
Mount St. Mary’s comes in at 2–7 and already 0–1 in MAAC play after an 87–80 loss to Sacred Heart last time out. The encouraging part is that the Mount finally showed some offensive life, but the defensive concerns that have plagued them all year were still clearly visible.
On the season, Mount St. Mary’s is:
- Scoring: 68.2 points per game
- Allowing: 81.6 points per game
- Field Goal %: Middling, with leading scorer A. Keyes hitting just 38.1% from the floor
- Rebounding: 44 boards per game (they can compete on the glass)
- Playmaking/Defense: 14.9 assists, but only 3.7 steals per game, which reflects a lack of disruptive pressure
- Keyes (12.9 PPG, 38.1% FG, 40% FT) is the primary option, but efficiency has been a real issue. The Mount tends to fall behind early and chase games, and when you’re defending as poorly as they are (81.6 allowed per night), that’s not a sustainable recipe—especially on the road in league play.
The Mount’s path to keeping this close is pretty straightforward:
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- Control tempo – they can’t afford a high-possession, open-floor game because their defense will not hold up.
- Win the glass – if they can leverage that 44-rebound average, they can generate second-chance looks and shorten Marist’s offensive possessions.
- Get something from role players – Keyes alone isn’t enough; they need at least two other double-figure contributions to stay inside the number.
Marist Preview
Marist sits at 4–2 and opens MAAC play at home, where they’ve been very steady. The Red Foxes have won two straight and four of their last five, highlighted by convincing wins over Lehigh (78–55) and Army (76–65).
They’ve built that start on a clear identity:
- Scoring: 73.0 points per game
- Defense: Just 59.8 points allowed per game – one of the best defensive marks in the conference so far
- Rebounding: 47 boards per game – a strong, physical front line that finishes possessions
- Ball Movement/Disruption: 16.5 assists, 7.3 steals per game
- Blackwell leads the way with 14.2 PPG on 40.6% shooting and an absurd 94.7% from the line, which is huge for closing games. But Marist isn’t purely a one-man show – they’ve got balanced scoring, multiple capable guards, and a frontcourt that crashes the glass hard.
The most impressive piece is the defense. Allowing under 60 points per game while also rebounding at a high level is exactly what you want from a home favorite laying close to double digits:
- They don’t allow many easy looks.
- They limit second chances.
- They turn defense into offense, which can create separation in spurts.
Against a Mount St. Mary’s team that can go long stretches without efficient scoring, that defensive consistency is a big edge.
Mount St. Mary’s vs Marist Pick
I’m laying the points with Marist in this spot.
Mount St. Mary’s has shown flashes of offensive competence, but their defense simply hasn’t traveled. Giving up over 81 points per game and now stepping into a structured, disciplined Marist environment is a difficult ask—especially when the Mount is already 0–1 in the league and hasn’t demonstrated they can string together stops.
Marist’s profile is exactly what you want from a favorite:
- A top-end conference defense that holds opponents under 60 points per game.
- A clear rebounding edge, which prevents Mount St. Mary’s from surviving on the offensive glass.
- A go-to scorer in Blackwell, who not only creates his own shot but also converts at nearly 95% from the stripe—perfect for protecting a late lead against the spread.
I expect Marist to grind this game into their preferred tempo, force Mount St. Mary’s into contested jumpers, and gradually pull away as the night goes on. Unless the Mount suddenly finds an efficiency level they haven’t shown through nine games, this matchup leans heavily toward the Red Foxes. Make sure you know about how the fans are looking on prediction markets for Mount Saint Mary’s with the Thrillz promo code. Make the most of your bets on Marist by using the sportsbook promos. Make sure when you place your Mount Saint Mary’s vs Marist bet you are using the bet365 bonus code.
My pick: Marist Red Foxes -9.5.
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