New Mexico Lobos vs San Diego State Aztecs Picks and Prediction for Friday March 13 2026
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New Mexico Lobos vs San Diego State Aztecs Picks and Prediction for Friday March 13 2026
The New Mexico Lobos face the San Diego State Aztecs in the Mountain West Championship Semifinal on Friday, March 13, 2026, at the Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas, Nevada. Tipoff is scheduled for 11:59 PM ET with television coverage on CBSSN. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Be sure to check out our free college basketball picks for more daily predictions and betting insights.
New Mexico Carries Offensive Momentum into Semifinal
New Mexico enters the Mountain West Championship Semifinal with a 23-9 overall record and a 13-7 mark in Mountain West play. The Lobos advanced in the tournament after recently winning over San José State 93-77 in the quarterfinal round. Over their last five games, New Mexico has recently won over San José State and San Diego State while recently losing to Utah State, Colorado State, and Nevada.
On the season, New Mexico averages 80.7 points per game while allowing 71.0 points per contest. The Lobos shoot 46% from the field and average 36.1 rebounds with 14.6 assists per game. Defensively, New Mexico records 2.9 blocks and 7.9 steals per contest while relying on active perimeter defense and rebounding to create transition scoring opportunities.
In the quarterfinal victory over San José State, Tomislav Buljan led New Mexico with 25 points and also dominated the glass with 14 rebounds. The Lobos shot an impressive 58% from the field and controlled the boards with a 38-24 rebounding advantage. However, New Mexico now faces a quick turnaround after playing the quarterfinal round, which could impact energy levels in this semifinal matchup.
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San Diego State Relies on Defense and Rebounding
San Diego State enters the Mountain West Championship Semifinal with a 21-10 overall record and a 14-6 mark in Mountain West play. The Aztecs advanced in the tournament after recently winning over Colorado State 71-62 in the quarterfinal round. Over their last five games, San Diego State has recently won over Colorado State, UNLV, and Utah State while recently losing to Boise State and New Mexico.
On the season, San Diego State averages 79.4 points per game while allowing 71.2 points per contest. The Aztecs shoot 48% from the field and average 34.9 rebounds with 15.4 assists per game. Defensively, San Diego State contributes 4.5 blocks and 7.7 steals per contest while using physical interior defense to disrupt opponents.
In the quarterfinal victory over Colorado State, Miles Byrd led San Diego State with 12 points and also grabbed eight rebounds. The Aztecs shot 48% from the field and dominated the glass with a 43-31 rebounding advantage while forcing 16 turnovers. Their defensive pressure and rebounding presence remain key strengths heading into this semifinal.
New Mexico vs San Diego State Pick
New Mexico vs San Diego State Spread Pick
- Pick: San Diego State Moneyline
San Diego State has been one of the most defensively disciplined teams in the Mountain West and holds a slight edge in rebounding and defensive efficiency. While New Mexico enters the matchup with strong offensive momentum, the Aztecs’ physical defense and ability to control the boards could allow them to dictate the pace of the game and advance to the championship.
New Mexico vs San Diego State Total Pick
- Pick: Under
I like the under in this matchup because San Diego State typically slows games down with its defensive style and half-court offense. The Aztecs rely heavily on defense and rebounding, which often limits scoring opportunities for opponents. With tournament pressure and both teams capable defensively, this game could trend toward a lower-scoring semifinal.
Final Score Prediction: San Diego State 72, New Mexico 68
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