New Mexico State Aggies vs Sam Houston Bearkats Picks and Predictions for Wednesday March 11 2026
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The New Mexico State Aggies face the Sam Houston Bearkats in the CUSA Championship Quarterfinal on Wednesday, March 11, 2026, at Propst Arena in Huntsville, Alabama. Tip-off is scheduled for 9:00 PM ET, and the game will be broadcast on ESPN+. At the time of this writing, the odds were not released. Be sure to check out our free college basketball picks for additional tournament predictions and betting insights.
New Mexico State Carrying Momentum from Opening Round
The New Mexico State Aggies enter this quarterfinal matchup with a 16-15 overall record and an 8-12 mark in Conference USA play. They advanced in the tournament after recently winning over Jacksonville State 68-63 in the first round. Over their last five games, New Mexico State has recently won over Jacksonville State twice and Kennesaw State, while they have recently lost to Middle Tennessee and Western Kentucky.
New Mexico State averages 75.8 points per game while allowing 72.1 points per contest this season. The Aggies shoot 43% from the field and average 38.0 rebounds and 13.4 assists per game, showing solid activity on the glass and balanced offensive production. Defensively they contribute 6.5 steals and 3.3 blocks per game, which helps them create extra possessions and control the pace when they are playing well.
In the first-round victory over Jacksonville State, New Mexico State relied on timely scoring and strong free throw shooting to close out the game. Jemel Jones led the Aggies with 17 points, while Anthony Wrzeszcz grabbed 5 rebounds to help stabilize the interior. The Aggies also knocked down 44% from three-point range and committed just ten turnovers, which will be important as they try to maintain efficiency against a Sam Houston team that thrives in transition.
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Sam Houston Enters Quarterfinal Well Rested
The Sam Houston Bearkats come into the CUSA Championship with a 21-10 overall record and a 13-7 conference mark, earning a first-round bye into the quarterfinal round. In their last five games, Sam Houston has recently won over Missouri State, FIU, and Jacksonville State, while they have recently lost to Liberty and Delaware.
Sam Houston averages 83.0 points per game while allowing 74.4 points, making them one of the more explosive offensive teams in Conference USA. The Bearkats shoot 47% from the field and average 40.5 rebounds and 15.5 assists per game, highlighting their ability to move the ball and control the glass. Defensively they contribute 7.0 steals and 3.0 blocks per contest, often turning defensive pressure into transition scoring opportunities.
In their most recent game, Sam Houston recently lost to Liberty 79-72, but still showed strong individual performances. Veljko Ilic led the Bearkats with 21 points, while Kashie Natt controlled the boards with 16 rebounds. Despite the loss, Sam Houston shot 45% from the field and matched Liberty in turnovers, showing that their offensive efficiency and rebounding strength can still make them dangerous in tournament play.
New Mexico State Aggies vs Sam Houston Bearkats Pick
New Mexico State Aggies vs Sam Houston Bearkats Spread Pick
- Pick: Sam Houston Bearkats Moneyline
Sam Houston enters this matchup with the advantage of rest and one of the most productive offenses in the conference. The Bearkats average over 83 points per game and have a strong rebounding presence, which could give them control of the tempo. While New Mexico State comes in with momentum after a first-round win, the short turnaround and Sam Houston’s depth and scoring balance make the Bearkats the more reliable side in this quarterfinal matchup.
New Mexico State Aggies vs Sam Houston Bearkats Total Pick
- Pick: Over
I like the over in this matchup because Sam Houston plays at a fast pace and consistently pushes games into higher scoring territory. The Bearkats average over 80 points per game and create extra possessions with steals and rebounds. New Mexico State also has shown the ability to score, particularly when their perimeter shooting is working. With both teams capable of producing points and pushing the tempo, this game has the potential to exceed the posted total.
Final Score Prediction: Sam Houston 82, New Mexico State 74
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