Pepperdine Waves vs Long Beach State Beach Picks & Predictions for Thursday December 18 2025
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The Pepperdine Waves travel to Walter Pyramid to take on the Long Beach State Beach on Thursday, December 18, 2025. Tip-off is set for 10:00 PM ET, and you can catch it on ESPN+ from Long Beach, California. For more plays on the card, check out these free college basketball picks.
Pepperdine Waves: Looking to Build Off a Needed Win
Pepperdine comes into this matchup 4-7 and 1-2 on the road, carrying a one-game win streak after beating Cal State Bakersfield 70-62 on 12/13/25. The Waves’ recent stretch has been up-and-down, with losses to Vermont (65-56 on 12/6/25), Abilene Christian (71-63 on 12/2/25), at Cal State Fullerton (83-69 on 11/29/25), and Fresno State (76-53 on 11/26/25) before finally snapping it with that Bakersfield win. If Pepperdine can string together clean possessions, this is a very winnable road spot.
From a stat profile standpoint, Pepperdine is scoring 73.3 PPG while allowing 74.3 PPG, and they’re shooting 43% from the field. They’re also pulling down 36.6 rebounds per game with 14.5 assists, plus 2.8 blocks and 5.8 steals. The numbers say they’re competitive night-to-night, but not a team that consistently overwhelms opponents—so execution matters.
The player to know here is Aaron Clark, who leads Pepperdine with 14.3 PPG on 41.4% shooting and 76.7% at the free-throw line. With this spread sitting tight, Clark’s ability to create points is a big part of Pepperdine’s path to a road win.
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Long Beach State Beach: Trying to Stop the Skid at Home
Long Beach State enters at 2-9 and is riding a three-game losing streak, but they’ve been in competitive games lately, including overtime losses. Their last five include losses at San Jose State 89-83 OT (12/9/25), vs UC San Diego 80-74 (12/6/25), and at UC Santa Barbara 84-77 OT (12/4/25), plus a win over San Diego 76-72 (11/30/25), then a loss at Portland 93-73 (11/26/25). Even with the record, the recent overtime results show they’ve been closer than that 2-9 mark suggests.
Stat-wise, Long Beach State is putting up 72.3 PPG while allowing 78.2 PPG, and they’re also shooting 43% from the floor. They average 33.9 rebounds and 12.7 assists, with 2.2 blocks and 6.7 steals. The big issue is the defensive number—giving up 78.2 PPG makes it hard to close games when you’re not scoring at a higher clip.
Their top scorer is Gavin Sykes, averaging 17.1 PPG on 45.7% shooting and 80.6% from the line. With Long Beach State sitting as the slight favourite, Sykes is the most obvious swing piece—if he’s efficient, they’ve got a real shot to finally finish one cleanly.
Key Points To Watch For
- Tight line, tight matchup: The spread is only Long Beach State -3.5, and ESPN’s matchup predictor is relatively close (56.2% LBSU / 43.8% Pepperdine).
- Can Long Beach State close? They’ve dropped games in overtime recently (at SJSU and at UCSB), so late-game execution is a storyline.
- Defence vs defence: Both teams shoot 43%, so this may come down to which side gets more stops and extra possessions.
- Star power: Sykes (17.1 PPG) vs Clark (14.3 PPG) is the headline scoring battle.
Pepperdine Waves vs Long Beach State Beach Pick
My best pick is Pepperdine +3.5. I’m taking the points because Pepperdine’s overall profile is steadier—73.3 PPG scored, 74.3 allowed—and they’re coming off a 70-62 win to get some momentum back. With Long Beach State on a three-game losing streak, I’m happy grabbing the cushion in what looks like a one- or two-possession game.
My lean is Under 140.5. I’m leaning under because both teams sit in the low 70s for scoring (Pepperdine 73.3, Long Beach State 72.3), and this spread suggests a close, more possession-by-possession game rather than a track meet.
Ultimately, I think Pepperdine does enough to keep this within the number, and there’s a real chance they steal it outright. Betting on sports and on Pepperdine is easy, but even easier if you use the best sportsbooks. Make sure you know about how the fans are looking on prediction markets for Long Beach State with the social sportsbooks. Getting the most out of your bets on Long Beach State vs Pepperdine can be done by using the Fanatics Sportsbook promo code.
Final Score Prediction:
Pepperdine 71, Long Beach State 69
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