Pepperdine Waves vs Saint Mary's Gaels Picks and Prediction for Wednesday, February 11, 2026
Pepperdine and Saint Mary’s meet Wednesday night at University Credit Union Pavilion in Moraga with two programs heading in very different directions. The opening tip-off is set for 11:00 p.m. ET on ESPN+. Saint Mary’s enters at 21-4 overall and 10-2 in WCC play, while Pepperdine sits at 6-19 overall with a 1-11 conference record. ESPN Analytics gives the Gaels a 98.6 percent win probability. Slam dunk your bets with our College Basketball picks.
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Pepperdine Preview
Pepperdine has struggled to find consistency on either end of the floor, and recent results have only reinforced that trend. The Waves have lost five straight games, including a 92-59 home loss to Pacific and an 84-60 road loss at Gonzaga. Offensively, Pepperdine averages 70.3 points per game while shooting 42 percent from the field, numbers that are not enough to keep pace in the WCC. Aaron Clark leads the team at 13.7 points per game, but shooting has been an issue when Pepperdine faces teams with size and discipline.
Rebounding and ball control have also been problems for the Waves. Pepperdine averages just 33.4 rebounds per game and 13.2 assists, both trailing Saint Mary’s by a noticeable margin. Styles Phipps contributes 6.1 rebounds and 4.7 assists, yet turnovers have often erased positive stretches. Pepperdine is allowing 78.2 points per game, which becomes a major concern against one of the league’s most balanced offenses.
Saint Mary's Preview
Saint Mary’s continues to look like one of the most reliable teams on the West Coast. The Gaels are 14-0 at home and have won four of the last five games, including dominant wins over San Francisco and San Diego. Offensively, Saint Mary’s averages 78.4 points per game while shooting 46 percent from the field. Paulius Murauskas leads the way with 18.8 points per game on 47.8 percent shooting, giving the Gaels a steady scoring presence every night.
The Gaels also control games with physicality and pressure defense. Saint Mary’s allows just 64.2 points per game, a sharp contrast to Pepperdine’s defensive numbers. Rebounding favors the home side as well, with the Gaels pulling down 39.8 boards per game compared to Pepperdine’s 33.4. Joshua Dent adds playmaking with 5.5 assists per game, helping Saint Mary’s dictate tempo in half-court sets. 
Pepperdine vs Saint Mary's Prediction
This matchup sets up cleanly for Saint Mary’s to control from the opening tip. Pepperdine’s recent losses show trouble handling efficient offenses, and Saint Mary’s excels at turning small edges into comfortable margins at home. Expect the Gaels to slow the pace, win the rebounding battle, and wear down a short-handed Waves rotation.
Best Picks:
- Saint Mary’s to cover the spread
- Saint Mary’s team total over
- Full game under based on the Gaels’ defensive efficiency.
Final score prediction: Saint Mary’s 80, Pepperdine 58.
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