San Diego State Aztecs vs Utah State Aggies Picks and Predictions for Saturday March 14 2026
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The San Diego State Aztecs face the Utah State Aggies in the Mountain West Championship Final on Saturday, March 14, 2026, at Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas, Nevada. Tip-off is scheduled for 6:00 PM ET with television coverage on CBS. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Be sure to check out our free college basketball picks for more daily betting insights and predictions.
Aztecs Grind Their Way Back Into the Final
The San Diego State Aztecs enter the Mountain West Tournament championship game with a 22-10 overall record and a 14-6 conference record. San Diego State advanced to the final after recently winning over New Mexico 64-62 in the semifinal. In their last five games, the Aztecs have recently won over New Mexico twice, Colorado State, and UNLV while recently losing to Boise State and New Mexico on the road before this tournament run.
San Diego State has been a balanced team this season, averaging 79.2 points per game while allowing opponents 35.2 rebounds per game. The Aztecs have shot 47.8% from the field and 35.2% from three-point range, while also producing 15.1 assists, 7.8 steals, and 4.5 blocks per game. Their defensive activity has remained one of the more important parts of their profile, especially when they are able to pressure the ball and contest shots around the rim.
In the semifinal win over New Mexico, Magoon Gwath led San Diego State with 17 points, giving the Aztecs a needed offensive boost in a low-scoring game. On the glass, Tae Simmons led the team with eight rebounds, helping San Diego State stay competitive in a physical interior battle. The biggest angle for the Aztecs in this title game is their defensive intensity. They held New Mexico to just 33% shooting from the field, and if they can bring that same half-court toughness again, they will have a real chance to control the tempo.
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Aggies Bring Efficiency Into the Championship
The Utah State Aggies enter the Mountain West Tournament final with a 27-6 overall record after advancing with a 79-66 win over Nevada in the semifinal. Utah State has been in strong form lately, recently winning over Nevada, UNLV, and Grand Canyon while recently losing to UNLV and recently winning over New Mexico in its last five games.
Utah State has been one of the more effective offensive teams in the conference, with season leaders pointing to a team built around steady scoring, solid rebounding, and strong playmaking. The Aggies have leaned on efficient guard play and dependable ball movement, while also getting consistent production on the glass. Their offense has shown the ability to score in transition and in the half court, and their defensive effort has been good enough to complement that offensive balance.
In the semifinal victory over Nevada, Adlan Elamin led Utah State with 15 points, while Drake Allen led the Aggies with nine rebounds and also added six assists. Utah State’s free throw performance was also a major factor, as the Aggies went 27-for-35 from the line, which helped them create separation late. That ability to capitalize at the stripe could be critical again in a championship setting, especially if this game turns into a possession-by-possession battle late in the second half.
San Diego State vs Utah State Pick
San Diego State vs Utah State Spread Pick
- Pick: Utah State Moneyline
Utah State comes into this matchup with the more reliable offensive rhythm and the better recent scoring output. San Diego State’s defense is strong enough to keep this game competitive, but the Aggies have shown better balance on the offensive end and should be able to generate enough quality possessions to finish the job. With Utah State also getting strong guard play and dependable free throw shooting, I like the Aggies to win this game outright.
San Diego State vs Utah State Total Pick
- Pick: Under 138.5
I like the under in this matchup because San Diego State is most dangerous when it turns games into defensive battles, and that should naturally slow the pace here. Utah State can score, but the Aztecs are likely to force more half-court possessions and make every trip more difficult. With the pressure of a conference title on the line and both teams capable of defending for long stretches, this feels like a game that stays on the lower side.
Final Score Prediction: Utah State 68, San Diego State 64
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