San José State Spartans vs New Mexico Lobos Picks and Predictions for Thursday March 12 2026
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The San José State Spartans face the New Mexico Lobos in the Mountain West Championship Quarterfinal on Thursday, March 12, 2026, at the Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas, Nevada. Tip-off is scheduled for 11:30 PM ET with television coverage on CBSSN. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Be sure to check out our free college basketball picks for more daily predictions and betting insights.
Spartans Look to Build on Opening Round Upset
San José State enters this matchup with a 9-23 overall record and a 3-17 mark in Mountain West play this season. The Spartans advanced to this quarterfinal after recently winning over Boise State 84-74 in the first round of the Mountain West Championship. Over their last five games, San José State has recently won over Boise State and Air Force, while recently losing to Wyoming, Fresno State, and Colorado State.
The Spartans have struggled on both ends of the floor throughout the season, averaging 71.5 points per game while allowing 78.1 points per game. San José State is shooting 43% from the field, while averaging 29.8 rebounds and 10.6 assists per game. Defensively, the Spartans produce 5.7 steals and 2.2 blocks per game, but their rebounding and scoring efficiency have been inconsistent throughout conference play.
San José State played one of its best games of the season in the opening round victory over Boise State, shooting 49% from the field and hitting nine three-pointers while committing only six turnovers. Colby Garland led the Spartans with 22 points, while Adrian Myers controlled the glass with 10 rebounds. That balanced performance will be important again on the short turnaround as San José State looks to maintain its shooting efficiency and energy against a deeper New Mexico squad.
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Lobos Enter Fresh After First-Round Bye
New Mexico comes into this contest with a 22-9 overall record and a 13-7 record in Mountain West play, earning a first-round bye in the conference tournament. Over their last five games, the Lobos have recently won over San Diego State and Fresno State, while recently losing to Utah State, Colorado State, and Nevada.
The Lobos have been one of the more productive offensive teams in the Mountain West this season, averaging 80.7 points per game while allowing 70.8 points per contest. New Mexico shoots 46% from the field and averages 36.1 rebounds and 14.6 assists per game, while also creating 7.9 steals and 2.9 blocks per game defensively. Their ability to push tempo and generate offense in transition has been a major factor in their success.
In their most recent game, a 94-90 loss to Utah State, New Mexico still displayed its offensive firepower. Jake Hall led the Lobos with 32 points, showcasing his scoring ability, while Tomislav Buljan dominated the glass with 13 rebounds. Despite the loss, the Lobos shot 48% from the field and 45% from three-point range, which suggests the offense is in rhythm heading into the tournament.
San José State Spartans vs New Mexico Lobos Pick
San José State Spartans vs New Mexico Lobos Spread Pick
- Pick: New Mexico Lobos - Spread
New Mexico has been the more complete team all season, particularly on the defensive end where they allow over seven fewer points per game than San José State. The Spartans did play well in the opening round, but playing on a short turnaround against a rested Lobos team that averages over 80 points per game is a difficult challenge. New Mexico’s rebounding edge and offensive balance should allow them to control the tempo and gradually pull away in this quarterfinal matchup.
San José State Spartans vs New Mexico Lobos Total Pick
- Pick: Over
I like the over in this matchup because both teams have shown the ability to score when their offenses get rolling. San José State just shot nearly 50% in its opening-round win, while New Mexico’s offense has averaged over 80 points per game this season and put up 90 points in its last outing. With the Spartans already playing at tournament pace and New Mexico comfortable pushing the tempo, I expect a fairly high-scoring game.
Final Score Prediction: New Mexico Lobos 82, San José State Spartans 71
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