Siena Saints vs Merrimack Warriors Picks and Predictions for Tuesday March 10 2026
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The Siena Saints and Merrimack Warriors meet in the MAAC Championship - Final on Tuesday, March 10, 2026, at Jim Whelan Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City, New Jersey. Tipoff is scheduled for 9:00 PM ET, and the game will be televised on ESPN2. Merrimack enters the game as a 2.5-point favorite with a total set at 130.5. Be sure to check out our free college basketball picks for more expert betting analysis and daily college basketball insights.
Siena Riding Momentum into the MAAC Championship
Siena enters the championship game with a 22-11 overall record and a 13-7 mark in MAAC play. The Saints advanced to the final with tournament wins over Mount St. Mary’s and Fairfield. In their last five games, Siena has recently won over Fairfield, Mount St. Mary’s, and Rider, while recently losing to Fairfield earlier and recently winning over Saint Peter’s, showing strong momentum as the postseason has progressed.
The Saints have been solid on both ends of the floor this season. Siena averages 70.6 points per game while allowing 66.0 points per contest. The Saints shoot 46% from the field, grab 33.7 rebounds per game, and distribute 13.3 assists per contest. Defensively, Siena produces 2.9 blocks and 6.0 steals per game, giving them a balanced profile that combines efficient offense with disciplined defense.
A key tournament angle for Siena is the confidence it gained from a strong semifinal performance. In the 76-61 win over Fairfield, Justice Shoats led the Saints with 26 points, providing the offensive spark throughout the game. On the boards, Francis Folefac led the team with 9 rebounds, helping Siena dominate the rebounding battle 41-34. The Saints also shot 53% from three-point range, showing the type of perimeter efficiency that could be decisive in a championship setting.
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Merrimack’s Defense Fuels Its Championship Push
Merrimack comes into the title game with a 23-10 overall record and an impressive 17-3 mark in MAAC play. The Warriors advanced to the championship with a narrow 58-57 win over Marist in the semifinal. Over their last five games, Merrimack has recently won over Marist, Sacred Heart, Niagara, and Iona, while recently losing to Canisius, entering the final with strong momentum.
The Warriors rely heavily on defense and disciplined half-court execution. Merrimack averages 69.3 points per game while allowing 66.5 points per contest. The team shoots 42% from the field and averages 28.8 rebounds and 12.6 assists per game. Defensively, the Warriors stand out with 4.9 blocks and 8.1 steals per contest, using aggressive pressure to force mistakes and disrupt opposing offenses.
The biggest storyline from Merrimack’s semifinal win was its ability to survive a tight defensive battle. In the 58-57 victory over Marist, Tye Dorset led the Warriors with 23 points, providing the key scoring punch in a low-scoring game. Dorset also led the team on the boards with 6 rebounds, highlighting his all-around performance. Despite shooting only 37% from the field, Merrimack protected the ball with just 9 turnovers, and that defensive discipline has been a major reason the Warriors reached the championship.
Siena Saints vs Merrimack Warriors Pick
Siena Saints vs Merrimack Warriors Spread Pick
- Pick: Merrimack Warriors -2.5
Merrimack’s defensive pressure and ability to control the tempo make them the side I prefer in this matchup. The Warriors allow just 66.5 points per game and consistently force turnovers with their aggressive defense. While Siena has been impressive offensively during the tournament, Merrimack’s ability to slow the game down and turn it into a half-court battle should give them a slight edge in a tight championship game.
Siena Saints vs Merrimack Warriors Total Pick
- Pick: Under 130.5
I like the under in this matchup because both teams rely heavily on defense and controlled possessions. Merrimack just played a 58-57 semifinal, and Siena also tends to win games with balanced scoring rather than explosive offense. With the championship on the line, I expect both teams to value each possession, which should lead to a slower pace and a lower-scoring game.
Final Score Prediction: Merrimack Warriors 67, Siena Saints 63
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