SMU Mustangs vs Louisville Cardinals Picks and Predictions for Wednesday March 11 2026
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The SMU Mustangs face the Louisville Cardinals in the T. Rowe Price ACC Tournament Second Round on Wednesday, March 11, 2026, at Spectrum Center in Charlotte, North Carolina. Tip-off is scheduled for 2:30 PM ET, and the game will be broadcast on ESPN. Louisville enters as a 6.5-point favorite with the total set at 163.5. Be sure to check out our free college basketball picks for more predictions and betting analysis throughout the tournament.
SMU Riding First-Round Momentum
The SMU Mustangs enter this matchup with a 20-12 overall record and an 8-10 mark in ACC play. They advanced to the second round after recently winning over Syracuse 86-69 in the ACC Tournament first round. In their last five games, SMU has recently won over Syracuse, while they have recently lost to Florida State, Miami, Stanford, and California.
SMU has been one of the most productive offensive teams in the conference this season. The Mustangs average 85.0 points per game while allowing 78.1 points per contest. They shoot 49% from the field and average 37.6 rebounds and 17.1 assists per game, reflecting a fast-paced offense built around ball movement and scoring balance. Defensively they contribute 7.1 steals and 3.7 blocks per game, creating transition opportunities that help maintain their high scoring output.
In the opening-round win over Syracuse, SMU showed strong rebounding and offensive efficiency. Boopie Miller led the Mustangs with 25 points, while Jaden Toombs controlled the glass with 11 rebounds and added six assists. SMU also dominated the boards 44-31 and limited turnovers to just seven, which will be critical again as they face a Louisville team that can score efficiently.
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Louisville Rested and Ready After First-Round Bye
The Louisville Cardinals enter the ACC Tournament with a 22-9 overall record and an 11-7 mark in conference play, earning a first-round bye into the second round. In their last five games, Louisville has recently won over Miami, Syracuse, and Georgia Tech, while they have recently lost to Clemson and North Carolina.
Louisville has been one of the most balanced teams in the ACC this season. The Cardinals average 85.9 points per game while allowing 72.5 points, shooting 47% from the field while averaging 38.7 rebounds and 17.4 assists per game. Defensively they contribute 7.0 steals and 3.3 blocks per game, giving them the ability to pressure opposing offenses while still maintaining strong interior defense.
In their most recent game, Louisville recently won over Miami 92-89, delivering one of their most efficient offensive performances of the season. Ryan Conwell led the Cardinals with 24 points, shooting 7-of-14 from the field, while Ernest Udeh Jr. grabbed 8 rebounds to anchor the interior. Louisville shot an impressive 60% from the field and 50% from three-point range, and if they can replicate that efficiency in this tournament matchup, they will be difficult to slow down.
SMU Mustangs vs Louisville Cardinals Pick
SMU Mustangs vs Louisville Cardinals Spread Pick
- Pick: Louisville Cardinals -6.5
Louisville enters this matchup with the advantage of rest after earning the first-round bye, and they have been one of the more consistent teams in the ACC this season. The Cardinals combine strong scoring ability with solid defensive numbers, allowing just 72.5 points per game. While SMU is capable of scoring in bunches, their defensive numbers are less consistent, and Louisville’s offensive balance should allow them to exploit those weaknesses. With Louisville shooting extremely well in their recent win and playing with confidence, I expect the Cardinals to control the game and cover the spread.
SMU Mustangs vs Louisville Cardinals Total Pick
- Pick: Over 163.5
I like the over in this matchup because both teams play at a high tempo and average more than 85 points per game this season. SMU just scored 86 in the first round and tends to push the pace whenever possible. Louisville has also been extremely efficient offensively, especially after shooting 60% in their last outing against Miami. With two fast-paced offenses and multiple scoring threats on both sides, I expect this game to turn into a high-scoring contest.
Final Score Prediction: Louisville 88, SMU 81
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