South Alabama Jaguars vs Texas State Bobcats Picks and Predictions for Saturday December 20, 2025

By: Jake Allman Updated 12/20/2025, 12:27 AM ET

South Alabama and Texas State meet in a Sun Belt matchup on Saturday afternoon at Strahan Arena in San Marcos, Texas. Tip-off is scheduled for 4:30 PM ET on ESPN+. South Alabama is 9-3 overall and 1-0 in conference play, while Texas State is 7-6 and 0-1 in the Sun Belt. ESPN Analytics gives Texas State a slight edge in win probability, but this game profiles as a tight matchup between two evenly rated teams. March isn’t the only madness — today’s college basketball picks are ready to cash.

South Alabama Preview

South Alabama has been competitive against a mixed schedule and is averaging 75.8 points per game while allowing 69.9. The Jaguars shoot 47 percent from the field and rebound at a solid rate with 36.6 boards per contest. Chaze Harris leads the offense with 16.8 points and 5.3 assists per game while shooting over 52 percent from the floor. Randy Brady anchors the interior with 7.0 rebounds per game and provides second-chance opportunities.

Recent results show some inconsistency for South Alabama, including a double-overtime win at ULM and a one-point home loss to North Texas. Turnovers remain a concern with the team averaging 9.7 per game, and Harris carries a heavy workload with over 29 minutes per night. South Alabama does generate 8.3 steals per game, which can help offset mistakes and create easy scoring chances. That pressure will be important against a Texas State backcourt that can be loose with the ball.

Texas State Preview

Texas State averages 74.2 points per game and allows 68.6, with the Bobcats shooting 46.9 percent from the field. Mark Drone leads the team at 13.3 points per game, while DJ Hall adds 12.1 points and a team-high 7.2 rebounds. Kaden Gumbs directs the offense with 4.1 assists and 2.0 steals per game, giving Texas State a solid backcourt. The Bobcats also block 4.5 shots per game, which can disrupt drives and force perimeter shots.

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Texas State has struggled for consistency, losing four of the last five games and coming off a 19-point home loss to Arkansas State. Offensive efficiency has dipped during that stretch, and the Bobcats have relied heavily on half-court execution rather than transition scoring. Playing at home does help, but Texas State has not shown an ability to pull away from comparable opponents. Rebounding is a slight strength at 37.2 per game, though the margin over South Alabama is minimal.

Texas State vs South Alabama Prediction

This matchup looks like a possession-by-possession game where guard play decides the outcome. South Alabama has the more reliable scoring option in Harris and has already shown it can win close games. Texas State’s home floor keeps things tight, but the Jaguars’ ability to force turnovers and score efficiently gives them a small edge. The prediction here is South Alabama winning 76-72, making the Jaguars the preferred side straight up in a close Sun Belt battle. Betting on sports and on Texas State is easy, but even easier if you use the best sportsbooks. Make sure you know about how the fans are looking on prediction markets for South Alabama with the Novig promo code. Make sure when you place your bet on Texas State vs South Alabama you are using the BetMGM bonus code.

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