Southern Miss Golden Eagles vs Arkansas State Red Wolves Picks and Predictions for Tuesday February 24 2026
Southern Miss travels to Jonesboro to take on Arkansas State at First National Bank Arena (Jonesboro, AR) on Tuesday at 8:30 PM, with the game airing on ESPN+. Arkansas State is listed as a 9.5-point favorite, and the total is set at 157.5, while at the time of this writing the odds were not released for the moneyline. For more daily analysis, make sure to check out our free college basketball picks.
Southern Miss Hoping to Keep Pace in the Sun Belt
Southern Miss enters this matchup at 15-14 overall with an 8-8 record in Sun Belt play. A road record was not provided in the information available, but the Golden Eagles have shown competitive form recently. Over their last five games, they as recently won over ODU 86-81, won over Troy 69-65, lost to USA 84-78, won over Kent 66-65, and lost to Marshall 81-77.
The Golden Eagles are averaging 73.8 points per game while allowing 73.6, and they are shooting 45% from the field. They grab 36.7 rebounds per contest and average 11.3 assists per game. Southern Miss has been balanced offensively, but not overly explosive, typically settling into games in the mid-70s.
Defensively, they offer some rim protection and activity, averaging 3.9 blocks and 7.7 steals per game. That defensive playmaking can keep them competitive, especially if they generate transition opportunities. However, allowing 73.6 points per contest against a team averaging over 83 presents a significant challenge.
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Arkansas State’s Offensive Edge at Home
Arkansas State comes into this contest at 18-11 overall with a 9-7 mark in Sun Belt play. A home record was not included in the provided information, but the Red Wolves have been productive offensively. In their last five games, they as recently won over ULM 102-94, won over UL 79-62, lost to USA 92-88 OT, won over ULM 103-70, and won over BGSU 91-54.
The Red Wolves are averaging 83.0 points per game while allowing 77.6, and they are shooting 45% from the field. They dominate the glass with 40.9 rebounds per game and average 15.7 assists per contest, reflecting an offense that can create both inside and outside opportunities.
The most notable advantage for Arkansas State is scoring volume. With multiple recent games over 90 points and a season average of 83.0, they have shown the ability to stretch defenses. Even though their defensive numbers are not elite, their offensive pace often forces opponents to chase, which can widen margins late.
Southern Miss vs Arkansas State Pick
Southern Miss vs Arkansas State spread pick
- Pick: Arkansas State -9.5
Arkansas State’s offensive firepower and rebounding edge give them the advantage in this matchup. Averaging 83.0 points per game compared to Southern Miss’s 73.8 is a meaningful gap. If the Red Wolves establish tempo and control the glass, they should be able to create separation and cover the number.
Southern Miss vs Arkansas State total pick
- Pick: Over 157.5
I’m leaning over because Arkansas State has consistently been involved in high-scoring games, frequently pushing into the 90s and even past 100. Southern Miss averages nearly 74 points per game and has shown it can contribute offensively. If Arkansas State plays at its typical pace and Southern Miss adds mid-70s production, this total has a clear path to clearing the number.
Final Score Prediction: Arkansas State 87, Southern Miss 76
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