Texas A&M Aggies vs Texas Longhorns Picks and Predictions for Saturday January 17 2026
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Texas A&M visits Texas at the Moody Center on Saturday, January 17, 2026 at 6:00 PM EST on ESPN, with Texas -198 on the money line and Texas A&M +164, the total set at 165.5 (over/under -110), and the spread Texas -4.5 (-105) with Texas A&M +4.5 (-115). Make sure you’re also checking out our free college basketball picks for more plays on tonight’s slate.
Texas A&M’s Offense is a Possession Machine
Texas A&M comes in at 13-4 and recently bounced back from a loss to Tennessee with wins over Oklahoma, Auburn, LSU, and Prairie View.
The Aggies are putting up 93.0 points per game while allowing 78.0, shooting 48% with 38.4 rebounds and a massive 20.1 assists per game. They also average 3.5 blocks and an eye-catching 9.7 steals.
The combination of 20.1 assists and 9.7 steals tells me Texas A&M can win possessions in multiple ways—good offense in the half-court, plus extra possessions created by pressure. That is exactly how underdogs stay live and steal road wins.
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Texas Brings Balance, But the Margin for Error Is Smaller
Texas enters at 11-6 and has recent wins over Vanderbilt, Alabama, and Maryland Eastern Shore, along with losses to Tennessee and Mississippi State (in overtime).
The Longhorns average 87.3 points per game and allow 74.4, shooting 49% while also posting 41.6 rebounds per contest. The assist number is lower at 13.4, with 3.1 blocks and 6.5 steals.
Texas can absolutely score and rebound, but the difference in playmaking/pressure shows up in the supporting stats. If A&M turns this into a game of extra possessions and live-ball chaos, Texas has to be extremely efficient to cover.
Texas A&M Aggies vs Texas Longhorns Pick
Texas A&M Aggies vs Texas Longhorns Pick
- Pick: Texas A&M +4.5 (-115)
I’m taking the points because Texas A&M’s profile is built to keep games close: elite scoring (93.0 PPG), strong ball movement (20.1 assists), and disruptive defense (9.7 steals). Texas rebounds well and shoots well, but A&M’s ability to manufacture extra possessions makes +4.5 attractive in a rivalry-type spot.
Texas A&M Aggies vs Texas Longhorns Total Pick
- Pick: Over 165.5 (-110)
I’m leaning over because both teams play like offenses first—A&M at 93.0 PPG and Texas at 87.3 PPG—and both defenses allow enough (78.0 and 74.4) that this can turn into a possession-rich, transition-heavy game. With A&M’s steals rate, the “free points” opportunities are there.
Final Score Prediction: Texas 86, Texas A&M 83
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