Texas Longhorns vs Purdue Boilermakers Picks and Predictions for Thursday March 26 2026
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The Texas Longhorns and Purdue Boilermakers square off in the NCAA Men’s Basketball Championship West Region Sweet 16 at the SAP Center in San Jose, California, on Thursday, March 26, 2026. Tip-off is set for 7:10 PM ET and the game will be televised on CBS. According to DraftKings, Purdue is a 7.5-point favorite with a total set at 147.5, while the Boilermakers sit at -360 on the moneyline compared to Texas at +285. This is a compelling matchup between a surging No. 11 seed and a dominant No. 2 seed, and if you are looking for more action, be sure to check out our free college basketball picks.
Texas Looks to Keep the Cinderella Run Alive
The Texas Longhorns enter this Sweet 16 matchup with a 21-14 overall record and a 9-10 mark in SEC play, having caught fire at the right time in March. Texas advanced through the bracket with impressive wins, recently winning over Gonzaga, BYU, and NC State while also recently losing to Ole Miss and Oklahoma prior to the tournament run. This team has clearly found its rhythm offensively, especially in tight tournament situations where execution late in games has been critical.
From a statistical standpoint, Texas has been one of the more balanced offensive teams remaining in the field. The Longhorns average 82.9 points per game while allowing 76.1 points, shooting an efficient 48% from the field. They also pull down 37.7 rebounds per game while averaging 12.5 assists. Defensively, they contribute 5.7 steals and 3.0 blocks per contest, showing an ability to create disruption and turn defense into offense.
In their most recent win over Gonzaga, Texas leaned heavily on efficiency and ball security, shooting 52% from the field while committing just five turnovers. Matas Vokietaitis led the way with 17 points and 9 rebounds, showcasing his ability to impact both ends of the floor. That interior presence will be crucial against Purdue’s size. Additionally, Dailyn Swain added 6 assists in that game, helping facilitate a balanced offensive attack. Texas will need another efficient performance and strong rebounding effort if they want to continue their Cinderella run.
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Purdue’s Powerhouse Performance Continues
The Purdue Boilermakers come into this matchup with a dominant 29-8 overall record and a 17-7 record in Big Ten play. Purdue has been one of the most consistent teams in the country and has rolled through the tournament so far, recently winning over Miami, Quincy, Michigan, UCLA, and Nebraska. Their ability to control tempo and execute offensively has made them one of the toughest outs in the field.
Statistically, Purdue is elite on both ends of the floor. The Boilermakers average 82.2 points per game while allowing just 70.1 points, one of the better defensive marks among Sweet 16 teams. They shoot an impressive 50% from the field and average 19.9 assists per game, indicating strong ball movement and offensive cohesion. While they average slightly fewer rebounds than Texas at 35.3 per game, their efficiency and shot selection often mitigate second-chance opportunities.
In their second-round win over Miami, Purdue delivered one of the most efficient performances of the tournament, shooting 53% from the field and an outstanding 57% from beyond the arc. Fletcher Loyer led the scoring effort with 24 points, shooting 6-of-7 from the field and a perfect 8-of-8 from the free-throw line. Trey Kaufman-Renn controlled the glass with 9 rebounds, anchoring the interior. That combination of perimeter efficiency and interior strength makes Purdue incredibly difficult to defend. If they maintain that shooting level, they will be extremely tough to beat.
Texas Longhorns vs Purdue Boilermakers Pick
Texas Longhorns vs Purdue Boilermakers Spread Pick
- Pick: Purdue -7.5
Purdue has been the more consistent and complete team throughout the season, and their efficiency on both ends of the floor gives them a clear edge in this matchup. While Texas has been impressive during this tournament run, I believe Purdue’s ability to shoot efficiently, move the ball, and control the game defensively will ultimately wear down the Longhorns. Texas has relied heavily on efficient shooting in its recent wins, but sustaining that level against a disciplined Purdue defense is a tall task. I expect the Boilermakers to gradually pull away in the second half and cover the number.
Texas Longhorns vs Purdue Boilermakers Total Pick
- Pick: Under 147.5
I like the under in this spot because Purdue’s defensive efficiency tends to dictate the pace of the game, especially in tournament settings. While Texas can score, they may struggle to find consistent looks against Purdue’s disciplined defense. Additionally, Sweet 16 games often slow down, with possessions becoming more deliberate and half-court oriented. I expect both teams to have stretches where scoring is difficult, which should keep this total under the number.
Final Score Prediction: Purdue Boilermakers 76, Texas Longhorns 68
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