Texas Tech Red Raiders vs Alabama Crimson Tide Picks and Predictions for Sunday March 22 2026
The Texas Tech Red Raiders and Alabama Crimson Tide meet in the NCAA Men’s Basketball Championship – Midwest Region – 2nd Round at Benchmark International Arena in Tampa, Florida, on Sunday, March 22, 2026, at 9:45 PM ET, with the game airing on TBS. Texas Tech enters this matchup as a slight 1.5-point favorite, while the total is set at 165.5. This matchup features two contrasting styles, with Texas Tech bringing efficiency and defensive structure, while Alabama thrives on pace and high-scoring offense. Be sure to check out our free college basketball picks for more expert tournament insights.
Texas Tech Red Raiders: Efficiency Peaking at the Right Time
Texas Tech comes into this contest with a 23-10 overall record and a 12-7 mark in Big 12 play, navigating one of the toughest conferences in the country. In tournament action, the Red Raiders advanced with a dominant 91-71 win over Akron. Looking at recent form, Texas Tech has recently won over Akron, recently lost to Iowa State, recently lost to BYU, recently lost to TCU, and recently won over Iowa State. While their form leading into the tournament was inconsistent, their opening-round performance showed what this team is capable of when firing on all cylinders.
From a statistical standpoint, Texas Tech averages 80.7 points per game while allowing 72.6. They shoot 47% from the field and average 36.8 rebounds and 15.9 assists per game. Defensively, they contribute 5.9 steals and 3.8 blocks per contest. The Red Raiders are a balanced team that can score efficiently but also rely on solid defensive execution to limit opponents’ opportunities.
In their first-round victory, Texas Tech showcased elite shooting efficiency and offensive rhythm. Jaylen Petty led the team with 24 points, while LeJuan Watts grabbed 6 rebounds to lead the team on the glass. The Red Raiders shot an outstanding 64% from the field and 55% from three-point range, completely overwhelming Akron offensively. That level of efficiency will be difficult to replicate, but it highlights their ceiling. If Texas Tech can maintain even a portion of that shooting success, they will be in a strong position against an Alabama team that can struggle defensively in high-tempo games.
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Alabama Crimson Tide: High-Powered Offense with Depth
Alabama enters this matchup with a 24-9 overall record and a 13-6 mark in SEC play, showcasing a team built around offensive firepower. The Crimson Tide advanced with a 90-70 win over Hofstra in the first round. Over their last five games, Alabama has recently won over Hofstra, recently lost to Mississippi, recently won over Auburn, recently lost to Georgia, and recently won over Tennessee. This stretch reflects a team capable of explosive performances but also prone to inconsistency.
Statistically, Alabama is one of the highest-scoring teams in the tournament, averaging 91.7 points per game while allowing 83.1. They shoot 46% from the field and average 40.8 rebounds and 16.1 assists per game. Defensively, they contribute 6.4 steals and 5.1 blocks per contest, but their defensive numbers indicate vulnerability, especially against efficient offensive teams.
In their opening-round win, Alabama’s offense was once again the driving force. Labaron Philon Jr. led the team with 29 points and also contributed 7 assists, while Aiden Sherrell dominated the glass with 15 rebounds. The Crimson Tide controlled the boards 46-34 and shot 48% from the field, though their three-point shooting was less consistent. Their ability to push the tempo and create scoring opportunities in transition makes them dangerous, but they will need to tighten up defensively against a Texas Tech team that thrives on efficient shot selection.
Texas Tech Red Raiders vs Alabama Crimson Tide Pick
Texas Tech Red Raiders vs Alabama Crimson Tide Spread Pick
- Pick: Texas Tech -1.5
Texas Tech’s efficiency and defensive structure give them a slight edge in this matchup. While Alabama has the more explosive offense, their defensive inconsistencies could be exposed by a disciplined Texas Tech team. The Red Raiders’ ability to control tempo and limit mistakes should help them dictate the flow of the game. I expect Texas Tech to capitalize on Alabama’s defensive lapses and cover the small spread in what should be a competitive contest.
Texas Tech Red Raiders vs Alabama Crimson Tide Total Pick
- Pick: Over 165.5
I like the over in this matchup because Alabama’s pace and scoring ability will likely push the tempo higher than Texas Tech typically prefers. The Crimson Tide consistently play fast and generate a high number of possessions, which should create scoring opportunities for both teams. Even if Texas Tech slows things down at times, Alabama’s offensive style should keep this game moving toward a higher total.
Final Score Prediction: Texas Tech 88, Alabama 84
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