Texas Tech Red Raiders vs Iowa State Cyclones Picks and Prediction for February 28, 2026

By: Jake Allman Published 02/28/2026, 02:40 AM ET

Texas Tech heads to Hilton Coliseum to face Iowa State in a Big 12 showdown between two teams tied at 11-4 in conference play. The Red Raiders sit 21-7 overall, while the Cyclones are 24-4 and ranked No. 4 in the country. Tip-off is set for 4:00 PM ET on CBS in Ames. ESPN’s matchup predictor gives Iowa State a 77 percent edge, and the numbers back up why Hilton Coliseum is one of the toughest spots in the league. Slam dunk your bets with our College Basketball picks.

Texas Tech Preview

Texas Tech comes in playing solid basketball, winning four of the last five, including an 80-68 win over Cincinnati and a 100-72 blowout of Kansas State. The Red Raiders average 82.0 points per game while shooting 47 percent from the field and 39.2 percent from three. JT Toppin drives everything with 21.8 points and 10.8 rebounds per game while shooting 54.8 percent from the floor. Christian Anderson adds 19.6 points and 7.7 assists, giving Texas Tech a strong inside-out combo.

On the other end, Texas Tech allows 72.2 points per game and blocks 3.8 shots per contest. The Red Raiders rebound well at 37.8 per game and limit turnovers to 10.6 per night. However, free-throw shooting can be an issue at 72 percent, and road environments in the Big 12 have been unforgiving.

Iowa State Preview

Iowa State has been dominant defensively, allowing just 64.9 points per game while scoring 82.8. The Cyclones shoot 50.1 percent from the field and force 8.8 steals per game, creating easy transition chances. Milan Momcilovic leads the way with 17.4 points on 52.6 percent shooting and an elite 50.7 percent from deep. Joshua Jefferson fills the stat sheet with 16.6 points, 7.5 rebounds, and 5.2 assists per game.

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Iowa State’s balance stands out. Five players average at least 8.3 points, and the Cyclones share the ball at 17.8 assists per game. At home, that efficiency becomes even more dangerous, especially against a Texas Tech defense that can be stretched by perimeter shooting.

Iowa State vs Texas Tech Prediction and Best Bets

Both teams average over 82 points, but Iowa State’s defense is the separator. The Cyclones defend at a higher level, force more turnovers, and shoot a better percentage overall. In Ames, that edge grows.

Best Picks:

Iowa State -5

Lean: Under 147.5

Final Score Prediction: Iowa State 76, Texas Tech 68

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