UC Davis Aggies vs UC San Diego Tritons Picks and Predictions for Thursday February 12 2026
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The UC Davis Aggies travel south to face the UC San Diego Tritons on Thursday, February 12, 2026. Tip-off is scheduled for 10:00 PM ET at LionTree Arena in San Diego, California, and the game will be broadcast on ESPN+. UC San Diego is listed as a -5.5 favorite (-108), while UC Davis is +5.5 (-112). On the moneyline, UC Davis is +180 and UC San Diego is -218. The total is set at 149.5 with the over at -115 and the under at -105. For more action across the board, be sure to check out our free college basketball picks for daily betting insights.
Aggies Playing Confident Basketball
UC Davis enters this matchup with a 15-9 overall record and has shown the ability to compete on the road this season. In their last five games, the Aggies recently won over Cal Poly 67-58, defeated UC Santa Barbara 85-75, picked up a road win at Cal State Bakersfield 80-72, recently lost to Cal State Northridge 94-78, and defeated UC Riverside 74-66. With four wins in their last five, Davis is coming in with momentum.
Offensively, the Aggies average 79.3 points per game while allowing 75.4 points per contest. They shoot 46% from the field and average 34.0 rebounds per game. UC Davis also averages 16.1 assists and 7.8 steals per game, reflecting strong ball movement and active perimeter defense.
What stands out about UC Davis is their balance on offense. With over 16 assists per game, they share the basketball effectively and create quality looks. Their ability to generate steals also helps them get out in transition, which can swing momentum quickly in tightly contested conference games.
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Tritons Looking to Defend Home Court
UC San Diego comes into this contest at 16-9 overall and has been tough at home throughout the season. In their last five games, the Tritons recently lost to Hawaii 72-67, defeated Long Beach State 77-74, fell to Cal State Northridge 81-64, lost to UC Santa Barbara 62-48, and recently lost to UC Irvine 61-59. Despite dropping four of their last five, UC San Diego has been competitive in several close matchups.
The Tritons average 76.8 points per game while allowing 71.2 points per contest. They shoot 46% from the field and pull down 37.2 rebounds per game. UC San Diego averages 14.6 assists, 7.6 steals, and 2.5 blocks per game.
Defensively, the Tritons are the stronger unit in this matchup. Allowing just over 71 points per game, they play disciplined half-court defense and limit easy scoring opportunities. Their rebounding advantage could also play a key role in controlling the pace and limiting second-chance points for UC Davis.
UC Davis vs UC San Diego Pick
UC Davis vs UC San Diego Spread Pick
- Pick: UC Davis +5.5 (-112)
While UC San Diego is favored at home, UC Davis enters in better recent form, winning four of their last five games. The Aggies’ offensive balance and ball movement give them a chance to stay within striking distance. UC San Diego has struggled recently, and several of their losses have been close contests. Getting more than five points with a team playing confidently provides value.
UC Davis vs UC San Diego Total Pick
- Pick: Under 149.5 (-105)
I’m leaning toward the under in this matchup. UC San Diego plays solid defense, allowing just 71.2 points per game, and tends to control tempo at home. While UC Davis can score, this feels like a half-court battle between two disciplined conference opponents. With both teams capable defensively and the Tritons likely looking to slow the game down, I see this total staying under.
Final Score Prediction: UC San Diego 73, UC Davis 69
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