UC Irvine Anteaters vs Cal Poly Mustangs Picks and Predictions for Thursday February 12 2026
The UC Irvine Anteaters hit the road to take on the Cal Poly Mustangs on Thursday, February 12, 2026. Tip-off is scheduled for 10:00 PM ET at Mott Athletics Center in San Luis Obispo, California, with coverage on ESPN+. At the time of this writing, the moneyline odds were not released. The total is set at 154.5 with the over at -115 and the under at -105. UC Irvine enters as a 6.5-point road favorite (-115), while Cal Poly is +6.5 (-105). Be sure to check out our free college basketball picks for more betting insights and daily analysis.
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Anteaters Leaning on Defense and Rebounding
UC Irvine comes into this matchup with a 16-8 overall record and has been competitive away from home this season. In their last five games, the Anteaters recently lost to UC Santa Barbara 84-79, defeated Cal State Bakersfield 78-62, won over Hawaii 87-76 in overtime, picked up a road win against UC San Diego 61-59, and defeated UC Riverside 80-66. Winning four of their last five before the recent loss, Irvine remains one of the more consistent teams in the conference.
The Anteaters average 77.5 points per game while allowing just 67.7 points per contest, one of the stronger defensive marks in the league. They shoot 46% from the field and dominate the glass with 40.6 rebounds per game. Irvine also averages 16.0 assists, 6.1 blocks, and 7.4 steals per game, showing their ability to impact the game on both ends of the floor.
What separates UC Irvine is their interior presence and defensive discipline. Averaging over six blocks per game and holding opponents under 68 points per contest, they control the paint and force difficult shots. Their rebounding advantage gives them second-chance opportunities offensively while limiting opponents to one shot per possession.
Mustangs Thriving on Offense, Struggling on Defense
Cal Poly enters at 9-16 overall and has had an up-and-down season. In their last five games, the Mustangs recently lost to UC Davis 67-58, dropped a heartbreaker to Cal State Northridge 97-96, defeated UC Riverside 94-87, won over Cal State Bakersfield 104-79, and recently lost to Cal State Fullerton 93-78. With two wins and three losses in that stretch, Cal Poly has shown offensive flashes but defensive inconsistency.
The Mustangs are averaging 81.1 points per game while allowing 86.0 points per contest. They shoot 43% from the field and pull down 37.3 rebounds per game. Cal Poly averages 13.2 assists, 6.7 steals, and 2.2 blocks per contest.
Cal Poly’s biggest strength is their ability to score in bunches. They have topped 90 points multiple times recently and are comfortable pushing tempo. However, allowing 86 points per game is a major concern, especially against a disciplined defensive team like UC Irvine. If they cannot get stops, they may find themselves playing from behind. 
UC Irvine vs Cal Poly Pick
UC Irvine vs Cal Poly Spread Pick
- Pick: UC Irvine -6.5 (-115)
UC Irvine’s defensive edge and rebounding advantage make them the stronger side in this matchup. While Cal Poly can score, their inability to defend consistently could be costly against a team that controls the paint and limits second chances. Irvine’s ability to slow the game down and dictate tempo should allow them to pull away late and cover the spread.
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Ricky Tran | +4,680.00 |
| 2 |  David Delano | +4,650.00 |
| 3 |  Mark Ruelle | +4,278.00 |
| 4 |  Nick Parsons | +4,149.00 |
| 5 |  Steve Seagrave | +4,024.00 |
UC Irvine vs Cal Poly Total Pick
- Pick: Over 154.5 (-115)
I’m leaning toward the over here. Cal Poly plays at a high pace and averages over 81 points per game, while their defense allows 86 per contest. Even though UC Irvine is strong defensively, the Mustangs’ tempo and scoring mentality can push this total upward. If Cal Poly forces a faster pace, both teams should have enough offensive production to clear this number.
Final Score Prediction: UC Irvine 83, Cal Poly 75
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