UC Riverside Highlanders vs St. Thomas-Minnesota Tommies Picks & Predictions for Saturday December 20 2025
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The UC Riverside Highlanders head to Saint Paul to face the St. Thomas-Minnesota Tommies on Saturday, December 20, 2025, with tipoff set for 8:00 PM ET at Lee & Penny Anderson Arena. This non-conference matchup features two teams trending in opposite directions, with St. Thomas unbeaten at home and UC Riverside struggling away from California. The game will stream on the Summit League Network. Be ready for all the college basketball season with our free college basketball picks.
UC Riverside Highlanders Breakdown
UC Riverside enters at 6–6 overall, but the road profile is concerning. The Highlanders are 3–5 away and have been wildly inconsistent against quality competition. While they bounced back with a 95–70 win over Stanton, that result came against a significantly overmatched opponent and does little to erase recent road struggles.
Statistically, Riverside allows 75.5 points per game, which becomes problematic against efficient offenses. They shoot a respectable 46% from the field, but ball movement has been limited (12.6 assists per game), and they don’t generate many extra possessions defensively (5.0 steals per game). When forced into half-court sets against disciplined defenses, the offense tends to stagnate.
Andrew Henderson leads the Highlanders with 18.1 PPG, but his efficiency drops against stronger defensive teams, and Riverside lacks a consistent secondary scorer to relieve pressure when Henderson is keyed on.
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St. Thomas-Minnesota Tommies Breakdown
St. Thomas has quietly been one of the most reliable home teams in the Summit League. The Tommies are 9–4 overall and a perfect 5–0 at home, riding a three-game winning streak into this matchup. They’ve also been winning convincingly, beating UNC Asheville, St. John’s (MN), and Weber State by an average of 22 points.
Defensively, St. Thomas allows just 70.3 points per game, while shooting an efficient 49% from the floor on offense. They don’t rely on offensive rebounding (31.8 RPG), but they make up for it with ball movement (15.8 assists per game) and active perimeter defense (8.9 steals per game), which is a major edge against a UC Riverside team that can be turnover-prone on the road.
The clear difference-maker is Nolan Minessale, who averages 22.0 PPG on an outstanding 56% shooting. His ability to score at all three levels puts constant pressure on opposing defenses and forces rotations that St. Thomas exploits well.
Key Matchup Edges
- Home Court: St. Thomas is 5–0 at home; UC Riverside is 3–5 on the road
- Efficiency Gap: Tommies shoot 49% vs Riverside’s 46%
- Defense: St. Thomas allows 5 fewer PPG
- Turnover Pressure: St. Thomas averages nearly 4 more steals per game
- Go-To Scorer: Minessale is the most efficient scorer on the floor
Pick & Prediction
Best Bet: St. Thomas-Minnesota Tommies -1
This line is short for a reason, but the matchup strongly favors St. Thomas. UC Riverside’s recent win came against a non-threat, while St. Thomas has consistently handled comparable or better competition, especially at home. The Tommies’ defensive pressure, ball movement, and scoring efficiency should expose Riverside’s road weaknesses. Check out all the sportsbook promos to see if you are getting a great deal on your bets on UC Riverside. Make sure you know about how the fans are looking on prediction markets for Saint Thomas with the Kickr promo code. Make sure when you place your bet on Saint Thomas vs UC Riverside you are using the BetMGM bonus code.
UC Riverside may keep things competitive early, but St. Thomas’ ability to force turnovers and control tempo should separate the game in the second half.
Lean: Under the Total St. Thomas prefers controlled possessions, and UC Riverside often struggles to score efficiently on the road against structured defenses.
Final Score Prediction
St. Thomas-Minnesota 76, UC Riverside 66
A comfortable home win for the Tommies, continuing their strong run at Lee & Penny Anderson Arena.
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