UC San Diego Tritons vs Cal State Northridge Matadors Picks and Predictions for Thursday March 12 2026
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The UC San Diego Tritons and Cal State Northridge Matadors meet in the Big West Championship Quarterfinal on Thursday, March 12, 2026, at Lee's Family Forum in Henderson, Nevada. Tip-off is scheduled for 9:00 PM ET with television coverage on ESPN+. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Be sure to check out our free college basketball picks for more daily predictions and betting insights.
Tritons Riding Momentum Into the Quarterfinals
The UC San Diego Tritons enter the quarterfinal with a 23-10 overall record and a 12-8 record in Big West play this season. UC San Diego advanced in the tournament after defeating Cal Poly 72-69 in the first round. Over their last five games, the Tritons have recently won over Cal Poly twice, UC Santa Barbara, and Cal State Bakersfield, while also recently losing to Cal State Fullerton.
UC San Diego averages 76.0 points per game while allowing 70.0 points per game this season. The Tritons shoot 46% from the field, average 37.0 rebounds per game, and produce 15.0 assists per contest. Defensively, UC San Diego contributes 2.6 blocks and 7.8 steals per game, often relying on balanced scoring and disciplined defense to keep opponents in check.
In their opening-round victory over Cal Poly, Hudson Mayes led the Tritons with 23 points, delivering an efficient offensive performance while shooting 10-of-16 from the field. Leo Beath led the team with 8 rebounds, helping UC San Diego remain competitive on the glass. Despite shooting only 25% from three-point range, the Tritons showed resilience and closed the game strong in the second half. With the short turnaround, maintaining defensive intensity will be key as they face a high-scoring Northridge offense.
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Matadors Seek Bounce-Back Performance
The Cal State Northridge Matadors come into the Big West Championship quarterfinal with a 19-13 overall record and a 12-8 conference record this season. Over their last five games, Northridge has recently won over Cal State Bakersfield and Long Beach State, while also recently losing to Cal State Fullerton, UC Riverside, and UC Irvine.
The Matadors average 81.5 points per game while allowing 79.7 points per game this season. Cal State Northridge shoots 45% from the field, averages 42.0 rebounds per game, and produces 16.9 assists per contest. Defensively, the Matadors contribute 2.8 blocks and 7.0 steals per game, relying heavily on rebounding strength and transition scoring opportunities.
In their most recent game, Cal State Northridge fell to Cal State Fullerton 90-77. Josiah Davis led the Matadors with 21 points, while Joshua O'Garro grabbed 8 rebounds to lead the team on the glass. Northridge struggled with ball security in that matchup, committing 20 turnovers, which proved costly despite a strong 46-35 rebounding advantage. Limiting mistakes and capitalizing on their rebounding edge will be a major factor if they hope to slow down UC San Diego’s disciplined attack.
UC San Diego Tritons vs Cal State Northridge Matadors Pick
UC San Diego Tritons vs Cal State Northridge Matadors Spread Pick
- Pick: UC San Diego Tritons Moneyline
UC San Diego enters this matchup with better recent form and momentum after a tournament win. The Tritons play stronger defense than Northridge and allow nearly ten fewer points per game. With their ability to control pace and generate steals, UC San Diego should be able to disrupt the Matadors’ offensive rhythm and grind out another close tournament victory.
UC San Diego Tritons vs Cal State Northridge Matadors Total Pick
- Pick: Over 150.5
I like the over in this matchup because Cal State Northridge plays at a fast pace and averages over 81 points per game while allowing nearly 80 points per contest. UC San Diego has proven it can score efficiently as well, and if Northridge pushes tempo with its rebounding and transition opportunities, this game could turn into a higher-scoring affair.
Final Score Prediction: UC San Diego 80, Cal State Northridge 76
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