UCF Knights vs Florida Atlantic Owls Picks & Predictions for Tuesday December 23 2025
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The UCF Knights head down to Boca Raton to face the Florida Atlantic Owls on Tuesday, December 23, 2025 at 2:00 PM ET. UCF brings a glossy 10-1 record and a nine-game win streak, while FAU sits at 8-4 and is trying to bounce back after a loss. The market has UCF as a clear road favourite at -8.5, and the total is posted in the 159.5 range. If you’re putting together your card for the day, make sure you check out our other free college basketball picks as well.
Game Information
This matchup is scheduled for 2:00 PM at Eleanor R. Baldwin Arena in Boca Raton, Florida. The odds you provided list UCF -8.5 and a total around 159.5 (with a nearby alternate number also shown). ESPN’s matchup predictor leans UCF as well (68.6%), but not so overwhelmingly that it screams “automatic cover”—which is exactly why the spread and total deserve a proper breakdown.
UCF Knights Team Breakdown
UCF has been playing fast, confident, and efficient. The Knights are scoring 88.6 points per game, allowing 74.5, and shooting 50% from the floor. Those are “put the opponent in a scoring race” numbers, and the recent results back it up: they just beat Florida Gulf Coast 102-80, and their last five include multiple wins where they cleared the 80-point mark comfortably.
What stands out most in the stat profile is that UCF is not just scoring—it’s doing it with structure. The Knights average 17.6 assists, which usually translates to cleaner looks, fewer dead possessions, and a higher scoring “floor” even on the road. They also rebound at a high clip (40.7), which matters in a spread game because extra possessions are how favourites stretch leads without needing a heater from three.
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UCF Key Player
Jordan Burks (#99) leads the Knights at 13.7 PPG and does it efficiently (49.5% FG, 87.9% FT). In a road-favourite role, that free-throw number becomes a sneaky part of the handicap: if UCF is protecting a late lead, you want at least one reliable finisher who can turn fouls into points and keep the margin from shrinking.
UCF Key Injuries
No UCF injuries were included in the information you provided.
Florida Atlantic Owls Team Breakdown
FAU is no pushover offensively. The Owls are scoring 83.2 PPG on 47% shooting, and they’ve shown they can put up video-game totals in the right matchups (like the 105-79 win over UAlbany and the 112-55 result against Saint Leo). Defensively, they’ve been sturdier than you might expect for a team that scores this much, allowing 72.7 PPG.
The issue for FAU in this specific spot is that they’re facing an opponent with both higher scoring volume and better offensive efficiency, and they’re coming in off an 88-75 loss to Saint Mary’s. That doesn’t mean FAU can’t win—home court matters—but it does suggest the Owls can’t afford a slow start. If they fall behind early, UCF’s pace and assist-driven attack is the kind that can turn a 6-point deficit into a 15-point deficit very quickly.
One stat that jumps out in FAU’s profile is rim protection: 5.8 blocks per game is a real number. If FAU is going to make this game feel uncomfortable for UCF, that shot-blocking has to show up without sending UCF to the line all afternoon.
FAU Key Player
Devin Vanterpool (#22) leads FAU at 16.7 PPG while shooting 46.9% with a solid 79.2% at the stripe. Because UCF’s defence is allowing 74.5 PPG, FAU doesn’t need Vanterpool to carry everything by himself—but they do need him to be the steady source of half-court points when UCF inevitably strings together a few runs.
FAU Key Injuries
No FAU injuries were included in the information you provided.
UCF vs FAU Pick and Prediction
UCF -8.5 (Against the Spread)
This is the classic question with a road favourite: Is the gap big enough to cover, or does home court keep it inside the number? The case for UCF covering starts with the simplest math from your data. UCF scores 88.6 and shoots 50%; FAU allows 72.7. Even if you assume FAU plays better defence at home, UCF’s efficiency and ball movement (that 17.6 assists figure) makes them less dependent on “hot shooting” to score. They can manufacture points through pace, rebounding (40.7), and getting quality shots.
The other big angle is momentum and recent form. UCF is on a W9 streak and just hung 102 in their last game. That doesn’t guarantee anything, but it does speak to rhythm—this is not a team currently grinding through 64-61 rock fights. And if UCF plays with a lead, Burks’ free throw reliability (87.9% FT) helps them “bank” points in late-game foul scenarios.
The case against UCF -8.5 is that FAU is also a legitimate scoring team (83.2 PPG) and tends to have enough offence to keep games from getting buried. If FAU’s shot-blocking (5.8 BLK) disrupts UCF at the rim and forces more jumpers, the Knights could still win but land in that annoying 6–8 point range. Also, this total being posted near 159.5 implies tempo and scoring—higher-pace games can create more variance, which often benefits the underdog covering.
So where do I land? Based strictly on the information you provided, the most consistent edge is UCF’s overall offensive efficiency + assist rate + rebounding, which are the three traits that travel best. If UCF plays anywhere close to its season scoring level, FAU is going to have to be near-perfect offensively to stay within two possessions.
ATS Pick: UCF -8.5
Total: Over 159.5
The total is high, but the profiles justify it. UCF averages 88.6 PPG and FAU averages 83.2 PPG—that’s 171.8 combined in raw season scoring. Now, you can’t just add those and call it a day, because opponents, pace, and matchups matter. But the key point is: both teams are comfortable playing in the 80s, and neither team’s defensive allowance screams “slowdown lockdown” (UCF allows 74.5, FAU allows 72.7).
The recent form supports offence too. UCF’s last five include 102, 81, 86, 82, 102. FAU’s last five include 75, 105, 112, 81, 65. Even with a couple lower outputs mixed in, the ceiling is obvious—and when you’ve got two teams that can spike into the 90s/100s, the over becomes playable if you expect normal shot-making and pace.
The biggest risk to the over is if FAU’s rim protection (those 5.8 blocks) turns UCF into a more perimeter-heavy team and UCF’s efficiency dips. But even then, UCF’s assist rate suggests they can still find good looks, and FAU’s offence is strong enough to contribute. Betting on sports and on UCF is easy, but even easier if you use the best sportsbooks. Make sure you know about how the fans are looking on prediction markets for FAU with the Novig promo code. Make sure when you place your bet on UCF vs FAU you are using the BetMGM bonus code.
Total Pick: Over 159.5
Final Score Prediction
UCF 88, FAU 78 — that projects to UCF covering -8.5 and the Over 159.5 cashing (total 166).
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