UNLV Rebels vs San Diego State Aztecs Picks and Predictions for Friday March 6 2026
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The UNLV Rebels take on the San Diego State Aztecs in the Mountain West Tournament on Friday March 6, 2026 at Viejas Arena in San Diego, California. Tip-off is scheduled for 10:00 PM and the game will be broadcast on CBSSN. At the time of this writing the odds were not released for the moneyline, total, or spread. Be sure to also check out our free college basketball picks for additional daily predictions and betting insight across the college basketball slate.
Rebels Entering the Tournament with Strong Offensive Form
UNLV comes into the Mountain West Tournament with a 16-14 overall record and an 11-8 mark in conference play. The Rebels have shown strong offensive performances recently as they recently won over Utah State, recently won over Nevada in overtime, recently lost to Grand Canyon, recently won over Air Force, and recently lost to Colorado State.
Offensively, UNLV averages 80.0 points per game while allowing 78.5 points per contest. The Rebels shoot 47% from the field while averaging 35.1 rebounds and 14.4 assists per game.
One of the key strengths for UNLV has been their ability to create scoring opportunities through aggressive defense. The Rebels average 7.8 steals and 4.6 blocks per game, which often leads to transition scoring opportunities when they force turnovers.
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Aztecs Looking to Defend Home Floor
San Diego State enters the Mountain West Tournament with a 19-10 overall record and a 13-6 mark in conference play. The Aztecs have faced some tough competition recently as they recently lost to Boise State, recently lost to New Mexico, recently won over Utah State, recently lost to Colorado State, and recently lost to Grand Canyon.
The Aztecs average 79.1 points per game while allowing 71.0 points per contest. San Diego State shoots 48% from the field while averaging 35.0 rebounds and 15.4 assists per game.
Defensively, the Aztecs have been one of the stronger teams in the conference, allowing just 71 points per game. Their ability to limit scoring opportunities while maintaining efficient offense makes them a dangerous team in tournament play.
UNLV vs San Diego State Pick
UNLV vs San Diego State Pick
- San Diego State -5
San Diego State enters this matchup with the stronger defensive profile and the advantage of playing at home. The Aztecs allow significantly fewer points per game than UNLV and have shown they can control the tempo against strong offensive teams. While UNLV has the ability to score, San Diego State’s defensive discipline and efficiency on offense should allow them to take control of the game.
UNLV vs San Diego State Total Pick
- Take the under if the total is set at 150
I expect San Diego State to slow the pace of this game and rely on their defensive strengths. The Aztecs have consistently held opponents below their season scoring averages, and tournament games often tighten up defensively. Because of that, I lean toward the under if the total lands near this range.
Final Score Prediction: San Diego State 74, UNLV 68
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