UNLV Runnin Rebels vs Utah State Aggies Picks and Predictions for Thursday March 12 2026
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The UNLV Runnin Rebels and Utah State Aggies meet in the Mountain West Championship Quarterfinal on Thursday, March 12, 2026, at the Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas, Nevada. Tip-off is scheduled for 3:00 PM ET with television coverage on CBSSN. Utah State enters the matchup as a -7.5 favorite, while UNLV is listed at +7.5, and the total for the game is 157.5 according to DraftKings. Be sure to check out our free college basketball picks for more daily predictions and betting insights.
Rebels Advance After Narrow Opening-Round Victory
The UNLV Runnin Rebels enter this matchup with a 17-15 overall record and an 11-9 mark in Mountain West play this season. UNLV advanced to the quarterfinals of the Mountain West Championship after defeating Wyoming 73-70 in the first round. Over their last five games, the Rebels have recently won over Wyoming, Utah State, and Nevada, while also recently losing to San Diego State and Grand Canyon.
UNLV averages 80.2 points per game while allowing 78.5 points per game this season. The Rebels shoot 47% from the field, collect 34.9 rebounds per game, and average 14.4 assists per contest. Defensively, UNLV contributes 4.5 blocks and 7.8 steals per game, relying on athleticism and defensive pressure to create scoring opportunities.
In their tournament opener against Wyoming, Kimani Hamilton led the Rebels with 23 points while also adding 4 assists in an efficient offensive performance. Walter Brown controlled the boards with 10 rebounds, helping UNLV compete inside the paint. The Rebels shot 38% from three-point range and held Wyoming to 37% shooting overall, but the short turnaround could be a challenge as they face a rested Utah State squad.
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Aggies Look to Maintain Offensive Efficiency
The Utah State Aggies enter the quarterfinal matchup with a 25-6 overall record and a 15-5 mark in Mountain West play, earning a bye into this round of the tournament. Over their last five games, Utah State has recently won over New Mexico and Grand Canyon, while also recently losing to UNLV, San Diego State, and Nevada.
Utah State averages 83.0 points per game while allowing 71.1 points per game this season. The Aggies shoot an impressive 50% from the field, pull down 34.5 rebounds per game, and average 17.7 assists per contest. Defensively, Utah State contributes 2.9 blocks and 8.6 steals per game, emphasizing ball pressure and efficient offensive execution.
In their most recent game, Utah State defeated New Mexico 94-90 in a high-scoring contest. MJ Collins Jr. led the Aggies with 27 points while also contributing 6 rebounds, leading the team in both scoring and rebounding. Utah State shot 50% from the field and converted 30 free throws, demonstrating strong offensive discipline. With the added rest from the first-round bye and the motivation of a recent loss to UNLV, the Aggies will look to push the pace and capitalize on their offensive efficiency.
UNLV Runnin Rebels vs Utah State Aggies Pick
UNLV Runnin Rebels vs Utah State Aggies Spread Pick
- Pick: Utah State Aggies -7.5
Utah State enters this matchup with the rest advantage and one of the most efficient offenses in the Mountain West. While UNLV has shown the ability to compete and even defeated Utah State earlier this month, the Aggies’ balanced offense and strong ball movement could create problems for a Rebels defense that allows nearly 79 points per game. With fresher legs and revenge motivation, Utah State has a strong chance to pull away late.
UNLV Runnin Rebels vs Utah State Aggies Total Pick
- Pick: Over 157.5
I like the over in this matchup because both teams are capable of scoring at a high level. Utah State just played in a 94-90 game and averages over 83 points per contest, while UNLV also averages over 80 points per game. With both teams comfortable playing at an up-tempo pace and capable shooters on the floor, this matchup has the potential to climb past the total.
Final Score Prediction: Utah State 86, UNLV 77
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