USC Trojans vs Minnesota Golden Gophers Pick & Prediction for Friday, January 9, 2026
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The USC Trojans head to Minneapolis to face the Minnesota Golden Gophers at Williams Arena in a Big Ten matchup. Tipoff is set for 8:30 PM ET, and the game will be on BTN. Minnesota is a small home favorite, and this one really comes down to tempo: USC wants it up-and-down, Minnesota wants it ugly and controlled. The USC vs Minnesota prediction is a great one, but you need to check out all of our free college basketball picks.
USC Trojans: Elite scoring, but the defense is springing leaks
USC enters 12–3 overall (1–3 Big Ten) and they can absolutely fill it up at 85.3 points per game on 47% shooting. Chad Baker-Mazara (19.3 PPG, 3.1 APG) is the engine, and USC’s size/length shows up in the box score with 6.0 blocks per game.
The problem is what happens on the other end. USC is allowing 77.0 points per game, and in Big Ten road spots that’s been painful lately — back-to-back blowout losses at Michigan State (80–51) and Michigan (96–66). When USC can’t get stops early, their offence starts taking tougher shots faster, and the game can snowball.
Minnesota Golden Gophers: Defense travels, pace controls
Minnesota comes in 10–5 overall (3–1 Big Ten) and they’ve built their profile around defense and discipline. The Gophers allow just 65.8 points per game, and that number matters a lot in a matchup against a USC team that’s been volatile away from home.
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Offensively Minnesota is more measured at 73.3 PPG, but they share it well (18.4 assists per game) and they have a go-to bucket in Cade Tyson (21.7 PPG). They’re also coming in confident off Big Ten wins over Iowa (70–67) and Northwestern (84–78) — games where they got stops, made enough shots, and didn’t beat themselves.
Matchup Factors
- Minnesota’s defence (65.8 PPG allowed) vs USC’s defence (77.0 PPG allowed) is the biggest gap on the board.
- USC’s last two road games were blowout losses — Minnesota is the type of team that can keep that trend going by controlling pace.
- Minnesota doesn’t need to win a track meet; they just need to keep USC out of rhythm and force half-court possessions.
- If Minnesota dictates tempo, the Under becomes very live.
USC vs Minnesota Prediction
ATS Pick: Minnesota -2.5 Minnesota’s defensive profile fits perfectly against USC right now — especially with USC coming off two road blowouts where they couldn’t guard. In a close spread range, I’ll side with the team that can win ugly, slow the game down, and generate the cleaner possessions late.
Total Pick: Under 145.5 USC’s season scoring average is scary, but Minnesota’s 65.8 PPG allowed suggests they can drag this into a grind. If Minnesota keeps USC closer to the low 70s instead of the 80s, this total is more likely to finish just under the number than sail past it.
Final Score Prediction
Minnesota 75, USC 70
Minnesota covers the short number at home, and the total sneaks Under 145.5.
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