Valparaiso Beacons at Illinois State Redbirds, Picks and Prediction for Thursday, February 12, 2026
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The Valparaiso Beacons (13-12, 7-7 MVC) travel to Normal, IL to face the Illinois State Redbirds (16-9, 8-6 MVC) on Thursday, February 12, 2026 at CEFCU Arena. Get in on the action with our free NCAAB picks.
Valparaiso Beacons Analysis
Valparaiso has climbed to 13-12 overall and 7-7 in Missouri Valley play by leaning on efficient perimeter shooting and balanced offense. The Beacons average about 71.1 points per game, shoot around 41% from the field, and knock down about 7.0 three-pointers per game.
Team Overview and Metrics
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PPG: 71.1
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FG%: 41%
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3P Makes: 7.0 per game
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Rebounds: 36.7 RPG
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Assists: 11.3 APG
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Points Allowed: 70.3
Strengths
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Owen Dease (F/G): Leads the Beacons with around 14.2 PPG and contributes consistent scoring and spacing.
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JT Pettigrew (G/F): Coming off a 23-point outing, he offers burst scoring and physicality.
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3-Point Shooting: Valpo’s ability to make open threes stretches defenses and creates driving lanes.
Weaknesses
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Interior defensive size: Struggles inside against teams with quality post play.
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Rebounding balance: Illinois State has a slight edge on the boards, which could limit second-chance opportunities.
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Turnovers: Slight uptick in giveaways can fuel opponent transition offense.
Illinois State Redbirds Analysis
Illinois State enters at 16-9 overall and 8-6 in MVC play, with a strong home mark and top-half conference stature. The Redbirds score around 76.8 points per game and allow approximately 70.1 PPG, with efficient shooting splits.
Team Overview and Metrics
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PPG: 76.8
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FG%: 47.2%
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3P%: 35.6%
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Rebounds: 37.2 RPG
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Assists: 13.5 APG
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Points Allowed: 70.1
Strengths
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Chase Walker (G/F): Efficient scorer at roughly 13.8 PPG, shooting a high percentage and contributing overall offensive balance.
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Boden Skunberg (G): Perimeter threat with about 1.7 made threes over his last 10 games, keeping defenses honest.
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Home court: Illinois State is 10-2 at CEFCU Arena, making it tough for visitors.
Weaknesses
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Recent form: Redbirds are 4-6 over their last 10, averaging about 72.1 PPG during that stretch.
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Defense on perimeter: Opponents who shoot well from three can pose problems.
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Turnovers: Keeping possession in key stretches will be crucial.
Standout Players and Key Matchups
Valparaiso
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Owen Dease: Primary offensive initiator with scoring and defensive pressure.
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JT Pettigrew: Dynamic scoring stretch after recent big game.
Illinois State
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Chase Walker: Efficient scorer and reliable option inside and out.
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Boden Skunberg: Three-point maker who can swing momentum.
Valparaiso vs Illinois State Prediction Reasoning
This MVC matchup sets up as a competitive, moderately paced contest with both teams capable of efficient scoring. Illinois State’s overall offensive efficiency and home court present a slight advantage; however, the Beacons’ recent shooting and balanced offensive attacks keep them within striking distance.
Expect a close first half before a handful of big plays decide the outcome in the second.
Final Score Projection: Illinois State 78, Valparaiso 74
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Best Picks
- Valparaiso +8.5
- Over 137.5 total points
