Virginia Cavaliers vs SMU Mustangs Picks and Prediction for Saturday, January 17, 2026
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The Virginia Cavaliers visit the SMU Mustangs on Saturday in an ACC matchup. Virginia is 15-2 overall and 4-1 in ACC play, and is coming off a 79-70 road win at Louisville. SMU is 13-4 overall and 2-2 in ACC play, and is coming off a 77-76 home win over Virginia Tech. Cash a winning ticket using our free college basketball picks.
Virginia vs SMU Game Information
- Date: Saturday, January 17
- Time: 12:00 PM ET
- Location: Moody Coliseum (Dallas), Dallas, TX
- TV: ESPN2
Virginia Cavaliers Preview
Virginia has stayed steady in ACC play by keeping scoring balance across the lineup. Thijs De Ridder leads the Cavaliers, averaging 16.0 points per game on 54.1% shooting, and Malik Thomas adds 13.1 points to keep pressure on defenses from the perimeter. Dallin Hall is the playmaker, averaging 4.1 assists per game. Virginia has multiple guards who can handle the ball without forcing rushed shots.
Virginia also has rim protection that changes how opponents finish at the basket. Ugonna Onyenso averages 2.6 blocks per game, and Chance Mallory has a team-high 2.0 steals. Virginia has allowed 67.0 points per game, but turnovers can swing momentum if the Cavaliers get loose with the ball. Injuries: Virginia does not have any players on its injury report.
Key Stats Per Game
- Points: 84.7
- Points Allowed: 67.0
- Rebounds: 42.1
- Assists: 17.4
- Steals: 6.7
- Blocks: 6.6
- Turnovers: 10.8
SMU Mustangs Preview
SMU plays with pace, has several scoring options, and the Mustangs have been tough to slow down at home. Boopie Miller has been the headliner, averaging 20.8 points and 7.1 assists per game, giving SMU a guard who can create shots for himself and others. Jaron Pierre Jr. adds an average of 17.2 points per game.
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SMU’s frontcourt has a reliable rebounder in Samet Yigitoglu at 8.3 boards per game, and the Mustangs can protect the paint when needed. B.J. Edwards leads the team with 2.5 steals per game, and SMU’s ability to turn defense into quick points matters against a Virginia team that prefers controlled possessions. Injuries: Mitchell Holmes (Questionable) and Sam Walters (Questionable).
Key Stats Per Game
- Points: 88.4
- Points Allowed: 77.0
- Rebounds: 38.6
- Assists: 17.9
- Steals: 7.9
- Blocks: 3.8
- Turnovers: 11.9
Virginia Cavaliers vs SMU Mustangs Prediction
Virginia’s defense and half-court execution with the ball keep this close, but SMU’s scoring options and home-court advantage give the Mustangs the late edge. Look for SMU to open a lead after the break and hold on down the stretch. Final Score Prediction: Mustangs win and cover ATS, 89-81.
Best Picks
- SMU Mustangs ATS
- Over
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